ASAwins Power Ratings – Nov 12th
I don’t know about you, but I’m not a fan of the current National Playoff ranking system and the flawed method in place to pick the four best teams for the playoffs. The entire committee should be fired after having Penn State in the top four last week. How about they get the oddsmakers involved which would be a much better indicator of who the best teams in the country are. Remember, our power ratings are point spread based not public based like the playoff committees. Alabama doesn’t drop out of our top four after a close loss to LSU and Minnesota doesn’t vault into our top ten after a home win over Penn State.
1. Ohio State: – 28.0 – The Buckeyes beat goes on after putting up 73 points against Maryland last week. It will be worse this week when they face an awful Rutgers team. OSU is a 51-point favorite this week over a conference opponent. The last time a team was favored by 50+ in a major conference was 2003, Oklahoma vs. Baylor who play this week.
2. LSU: -27.5 – LSU got the big road win at Bama last week with QB Burrow completing 31 of 39 passes. The Tigers are 2nd in passing yards per game at 379YPG and 4th in Total O at 538YPG. LSU defensively is 33rd in yards allowed and especially good against the run allowing just 102YPG.
3. Alabama: -27.0 – The Tide lost at home last week but won’t drop much in our ratings as they are clearly still one of the three best teams in college football. With a less than 100% QB Tagovailoa the Tide went toe-to-toe with LSU last week. Bama ranks top 8 in total yards per game, passing yards and points scored per game. Defensively they allow just 16PPG.
4. Clemson: -23.5 – Just how tough has the Tigers schedule been you ask. They’ve now scored 50 or more points in 5 or half their games but they’ve faced 7 teams that rank 70th or worse in scoring defense and one FCS team in Wofford. Even if we adjust for SOS this team is still one of the four best in college football though.
5. Georgia: -22.25 – The Bulldogs leap the Sooners to the 5th spot in our ratings as they have the stronger strength of schedule. The Dawgs defense is for real as they have allowed more than 18 points just once and that was in OT. Georgia is 5th in yards allowed per game, 4th against the rush and 2nd in points allowed per game.
6. Oklahoma: -20.25 –The Sooners survived a failed 2-point attempt by Iowa State last week in their 42-41 win to remain 8-1. OU is averaging 48PPG which is the second highest average in CFB. Oklahoma puts up nearly 590YPG (1st) with 338YPG coming via the ground game and 250 via the pass.
7. Oregon: -15.5 – The Ducks were off last week after winning 8 straight games. The Ducks have a top 25 offense and defense in terms of yards gained and allowed per game. A well-balanced Oregon team is also top 12 in both scoring offense and scoring defense.
8. Auburn: -12.25 – The Tigers 3-point loss at LSU earlier this season is even more impressive considering LSU just won at Bama. Auburn was off last week and close out the season with a game this week versus Georgia, then in the final game of the season they host Alabama.
9. Utah: -11.5 – Utah has a favorable schedule to go unbeaten the rest of the way until the Pac12 Championship game. The Utes have gotten here with a defense that ranks #1 against the run, 3rd in total yards allowed per game and 7th in scoring allowing just 12.2PPG. When experts talk about “getting off the field defensively” that’s just what Utah does with a unit that allows just 28.28% 3rd down conversions per game (5th).
10. Wisconsin: -11.5 – The Badgers beat Iowa last week worse than the final score indicates as they rushed for 300 yards, put up 473 total yards and were +9 in FD’s. Wisconsin is top 7 defensively in points allowed per game, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and total yards allowed.
11. Florida: -11.0 – The Gators bounced back from their loss to Georgia two weeks ago with a 56-0 shutout win over Vanderbilt last weekend. Florida has a +1.4 net yards per play average this year and a defense that give up just 3.6 yards per rush.
12. Penn State: -10.5 – Penn State lost at Minnesota last week in a game that was clearly the Gophers game of the year. The Lions defense ranks 13th in yards allowed per game, 3rd in rushing yards allowed, 5th in points allowed and 8th in opponent yards per play.
13. Michigan: -10.0 – The Wolverines beat Maryland last week by 31-points and now face instate rival Michigan State this weekend. Michigan is anchored by a defense that is 7th in total yards allowed per game at 267YPG, 5th against the pass and 11th in points allowed at just 17PPG.
14. Notre Dame: -9.25 – The Irish have outgained their last two opponents 916 total yards to 437 with a combined score of 59 to 27. Notre Dame has strong defensive numbers, expect when it comes to stopping the run where they rank 64th allowing 157.3YPG. Navy could test them this week.
15. Texas A&M: -9.0 – The Aggies are 6-3 SU on the year with the three losses coming against Alabama, Clemson and Auburn with a negative differential of minus -41 total points. In their other six wins the Aggies have an average point differential of +26PPG.
16. Minnesota: -8.50 – The Gophers validated themselves with a 31-26 upset at home of Penn State. That makes this week’s game against Iowa a potential letdown situation. Minnesota has the 2nd worst point differential of the unbeaten teams at +16.9PPG but has faced the weakest schedule of the group.
17. Texas: -8.0 – The Longhorns beat a quality opponent last week in Kansas State and dominated more than the final score indicates. Texas has some horrible defensive stats, but they’ve faced four offenses that rank 35th or higher in total offense. Two of the Horns three losses have come against top 10 programs and both were by a TD.
18. Baylor -7.50 – Of the five unbeaten teams in college football the Bears have the lowest margin of victory at +16.3PPG AND that includes blowout wins over Stephen F Austin and Texas San Antonio. Baylor has a top 31 defense in yards allowed per game and top 26 offense in YPG.
19. Iowa State: -7.25 – The Cyclones lost a heartbreaker in Oklahoma last week when their 2-point conversion for the win at the end of the game failed. Two of ISU’s losses this year have come by a combined 3-points to 1-loss Oklahoma and unbeaten Baylor. The Cyclones have the 8th best passing yards per game average in the nation, 16th best in total yards per game.
20. Cincinnati -7.25 – The Bearcats are off a 48-3 thrashing of UConn and have won 7 straight games after a loss to Ohio State. Cincinnati doesn’t have gaudy numbers but are solid against the run allowing 202YPG and rush it for an average of 4.8 yards per carry which is 41st.
21. Memphis: -7.25 – The Tigers high octane offense averages 475YPG which ranks 21st in college football. Memphis has the 8th best yards per play offense at 6.9YPPL.
22 SMU: -7.0 – The Mustangs suffered a letdown against East Carolina last week after losing the previous week to Memphis. SMU beats teams by outscoring them with an offense that averages 45.1PPG (6th) and 1-point for every 11.6 yards gained (7th).
23. Kansas State: -6.5 – The Wildcats lost by 3-points at Texas and now have three losses on the season, but they do own a win over Oklahoma. KSU allows 21.1PPG which is 32nd in the nation and rank 49th in total yards allowed per game at 366.8YPG.
24. Oklahoma State: -6.25 – The Cowboys creep back into the top 25 with the 9th most potent offense in college football at 500YPG. OSU averages 37.1PPG behind a rushing attack that averages 6.0 yards per carry (6th). Oklahoma State has some ugly defensive numbers but look at the offenses they’ve faced.
25. Missouri: -6.25 – Mizzou was dominated by Georgia last week, but a big factor was an injury to starting QB Bryant. The Tigers are 10th in yards allowed per game, 4th against the pass and 19th in points allowed per game.