ASAwins Power Ratings – Nov 19th
We mentioned last week how the current playoff committee is flawed and this week the proof is in the Vegas spread on one game in particular. Ohio State is a 19-point favorite over Penn State who the committee had ranked 4th in the opening poll. In our ratings system it’s clear the Ohio State Buckeyes have the best overall team in terms of offense and defense. LSU and Alabama don’t play defense, Georgia is great defensively but aren’t offensively and we really don’t know what Clemson is because they haven’t played anyone with a pulse. The sleeper team in all this is Oregon who has a QB in Justin Herbert who has thrown for 2,662 total yards, 28 TD’s to just 3 INT’s for the Ducks. OU’s overall efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball are on par with the elite teams. Joining our top 25 this week is a USC team that has a top 40 offensive and defensive efficiency rating.
1. Ohio State: – 29.25 – Consider this. The Buckeyes are 18-point favorites over a Penn State team the Playoff committee had in the top 4 two weeks ago. Ohio State’s defense is what separates them from the rest at the top of the heap. 1st in yards allowed, 1st versus the pass, 6th against the run and 1st in points allowed per game.
2. LSU: -27.0 – LSU has one of the best QB’s in college football with Burrow who has 38 TD’s to just 6 INT’s this season. The Tigers are 2nd in the nation in passing yards per game. LSU was shredded last week defensively by Ole’Miss who racked up over 600 total yards against them.
3. Clemson: -24 – The Tigers destroyed Wake Forest last weekend and have now scored 50+ points in four straight games and 45 or more in six straight. The Clemson defense is top three in: total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed per game.
4. Georgia: -23.5 – The Bulldogs survived a scare last week at Auburn with a 7-point win despite getting outgained in the game by 78-yards. The Dawgs have a pair of impressive road wins over Florida and Auburn this season anchored by a defense that is top 6 in yards allowed, rushing yards allowed and points allowed per game.
5. Alabama: -23.0 – The Tide won last week at Mississippi State but suffered a loss with QB Tagovailoa getting injured and is now out for the season. The 8th ranked total offense will take a step back without Tua under center but is still loaded on that side of the football.
6. Oklahoma: -20.0 –The Sooners are off thrilling road win over Baylor after being down 21 at the half. The Sooners defense showed up in the second half pitching a shutout in the 3rd and 4th quarter. OU has the best offense in college football when it comes to total yards per game.
7. Oregon: -17.5 – The Ducks have won 9 in a row with their last two games coming by a combined 90-30 scoring margin. A well-balanced Oregon team is top 20 in both total offense, total defense, points scored, and points allowed per game.
8. Utah: -12.75 – Utah is quietly flying below the radar right now at 9-1 SU with the lone loss coming at USC. 8 of the Utes nine wins have come by more than a TD and all nine have come by an average of 27PPG.
9. Auburn: -12.25 – The Tigers 3-point loss at LSU earlier this season is even more impressive considering LSU just won at Bama. Auburn outgained Georgia last week at home but still came up short on the scoreboard. The Tigers defense allows just .247 points per play which is 12th best in CFB.
10. Florida: -11.5 – The Gators two losses have come against top five teams in LSU and Georgia. Florida’s defense has not allowed a TD in five of their games this season and rank 9th in points allowed per game at 14.2per.
11. Wisconsin: -11.5 – The Badgers defensive numbers are on a slide following a soft early season schedule, but they still rank 4th in yards allowed, 3rd versus the pass, 13th in rush yards allowed and 6th in points scored against them. The offense is anchored by RB Jonathan Taylor and a running game that averages 5.3 yards per carry (14th).
12. Michigan: -10.5 – Michigan has found their offense! Through Oct 13th the Wolverines averaged 388YPG. In their last four games they’ve averaged 414YPG. UM allows just 263YPG which is 5th best in the nation and 16.4PPG which is 11th.
13. Penn State: -10.5 – Penn State was in a letdown situation last week following their loss in Minnesota and with Ohio State on deck. The Lions were flat against Indiana but still managed to win by a TD. PSU allows just 2.4 yards per rush which is tied with Utah for the lowest average in college football.
14. Texas A&M: -9.75 – This sounds like a broken record every week, but Aggies are 7-3 SU on the year with the three losses coming against Alabama, Clemson and Auburn. A&M has played a top 15 strength of schedule and are coming off a dominated win over South Carolina.
15. Notre Dame: -9.25 – The Irish have a net yards per play differential of +1.5 and are outgaining opponents by nearly 100YPG. Notre Dame has strong defensive numbers, expect when it comes to stopping the run where they rank 79th allowing 169.7RYPG.
16. Minnesota: -8.0 – The Gophers suffered a letdown last week in Iowa losing 19-23 despite outgaining the Hawkeyes by 130 total yards. Minnesota has a top 30 defense in yards allowed, passing yards, rushing yards and points allowed and average 35.7PPG (22nd). But they’ve faced an easy schedule to date.
17. Texas: -7.5 – On paper the Longhorns have some bad defensive stats (110th in yards allowed), but they’ve faced five offenses that rank 35th or higher in average yards per game offense. UT has four losses this season by an average of -6.5PPG. The Horns passing O is 15th best in the nation at 300.6YPG.
18. Baylor -7.50 – The Bears blew a big lead last week to Oklahoma and suffered their first loss of the season. Baylor has a top 40 offense and defense in terms of yards per game along with a net yards per play differential of +1.9YPPL.
19. Iowa State: -7.25 – The Cyclones bounced back last week with a 2-point win at home over Texas and now stand 6-4 SU on the season despite play four top 25 level teams. ISU did lose three of those games, but they came by an average of 1.3PPG. Iowa State has the 3rd best yards per play defense in the Big 12.
20. Cincinnati -7.25 – The Bearcats survived in South Florida last week with a field goal in the closing seconds to win by 3-points. Cincy has won 8-straight games and should make it nine as a double-digit favorite this week against Temple. The Bearcats ball control offense averages over 202 rushing yards per game which is 31st in the nation.
21. Memphis: -7.25 – The Tigers beat you with an offense that averages 6.9 yards per play which is 7th best in college football. Memphis throws it for 9.36 yards per attempt which is also 7th. Memphis also has an offense that runs it for 5.35 yards per attempt and allows just 4.64YPR.
22 SMU: -7.0 – The Mustangs offense is 6th in total yards per game at 522/per, 7th in passing yards per game and 6th in points scored per game at 45.1PPG. SMU has scored 40+ points in every game but two this season.
23. Washington -6.5 – The Huskies played the two best teams in the Pac 12 (Utah, Oregon) to the wire but lost both games by a combined 9-points. After those two games Washington beat Oregon State 19-7 but outgained them 420 yards to just 119 yards and had 20 first downs to 6 for the Beavers.
24. Oklahoma State: -6.25 – The Cowboys average 5.8 yards per rush which is 6th best in D1 football. OSU averages 272YPG rushing overall which is 6th best. Oklahoma State puts up 34.3PPG which is top 25. The defense is 66th in points allowed per game at 27.7PPG.
25. USC: -6.25 – USC has been one of the bigger surprises this season and continue to impress. The Trojans are 35th in yards gained per game this year, 11th in passing and 50th in points scored per game. They have a top 40 offensive and defensive efficiency ratings on the season.