ASAWINS NFL News & Notes – October 7th

NFL NOTES

NFL TOTAL POINTS – Average points scored in a game last year was 49.6 which was highest ever.  This year so far it’s 47 per game – UNDERS are 37-27 this year

TO’s IN NFL – Teams that win TO battle have covered at 75 to 80% clip historically.  Last week teams that won TO battle were 10-3 ATS – so far this season teams that win TO battle are 42-7 ATS

Panthers – We had our questions about the Panthers #1 rated defense heading into last weekend’s match up with the Cowboys.  They had only allowed 30 total points in their first 3 games but their offensive opponents were nothing to write home about.  They had faced the Jets in QB Wilson’s first start, the Saints with Winston at QB and New Orleans missing a number of offensive assistant coaches due to Covid, and finally they took on Houston in QB Mills first career start.  In those games the Carolina defense allowed a total of 573 yards on 152 offensive snaps for an average of just 3.7 YPP.  That all changed on Sunday when they faced an offense with a pulse.  Not only one with a pulse but one of the better offenses in the NFL.  The Cowboys scored more points (36) on Sunday than the Panthers had allowed all season.  Dallas also averaged a full 4 YPP more than Carolina was allowing on the season (7.7 YPP).  They did hold the Cowboys to 3 of 9 on 3rd downs last week (33%) and they lead the NFL in that category allowing just a 23% success rate on 3rd down.  This week the Panthers play host to the Eagles whose offense ranks 5th in the NFL averaging 6.5 YPP.

Bills – The Bills are 3-1 on the season and despite their 1 loss they still lead the NFL in point differential by a wide margin.  Their point differential on the year is +90 and that puts them 35 points ahead of Arizona who is 4-0 (+55).  Next in line is Denver way down at a +34 point differential.  Much is made of the Buffalo offense but their defense has played lights out shutting out 2 of their last 3 opponents (Houston & Miami).  Let’s not forget they’ve faced 3 backup QB’s in their 4 games this season (Miami, Washington, and Houston).  Still not easy to hold an NFL team scoreless no matter who is playing QB and doing it twice in three weeks is extremely impressive.  They lead the NFL allowing just 4.0 YPP which is a full 0.5 YPP better than the Browns who sit 2nd in that category.  We’ll find out more about this defense on Sunday when they travel to Kansas City whose offense leads the NFL averaging 7.6 YPP.  Last year the Chiefs scored 64 combined points in 2 games vs Buffalo, both KC wins (26-17 in regular season / 38-24 in playoffs).  KC outgained Buffalo 905 yards to 569 in those 2 games.

Chargers – How about the LA Chargers defense?  Their new head coach Staley came over from the LA Rams where he was the defensive coordinator of the top defense in the NFL last year (292 YPG & 4.7 YPP allowed).  His success is definitely rubbing off on this stop unit.  They have held some of the top offensive teams in the NFL in check thus far including limiting the Raiders to 14 points, Dallas to 20 points, KC to 24 points, and Washington to 16, all season lows for those teams.  They’ve been shutting down good offensive teams as all 4 of those offenses are currently ranked in the top 11 in the NFL in scoring.  The Charger defense is allowing just 18.5 PPG and they’ve held their 4 opponents listed above to an average of 10.5 points below their season scoring average.  This from a defense that allowed 26.6 PPG last season.  Big improvements on that side of the ball with Staley in charge.

Ravens – The NFL schedule makers didn’t do the Ravens any favors early in the season as 3 of their first 4 games have been on the road.  If you add in the end of the pre-season, Baltimore has actually played 5 of their last 6 games away from home.  A tough travel schedule to say the least.  They made it through that tough early slate with an impressive 3-1 record and now they get to stay at home until November 11th.  You read that correctly.  Baltimore now plays 4 straight home games vs Colts, Chargers, Bengals, and Vikings.  Not only that, their bye week is also thrown into the mix on October 31st so they are at home for 5 consecutive weeks.

Browns – Cleveland brought in 8 new starters on defense through free-agency and the draft.  They have been top notch thus far allowing only 16.8 PPG after giving up 26.6 PPG last season.  Since their season opener vs Kansas City, this defense has faced 32 offensive possessions and allowed only 4 TD’s.  Some may question their offensive competition as they faced the Texans and Bears immediately following their loss @ KC.  We would agree with that but last week’s performance vs Minnesota caught our attention.  The Vikings entered the game averaging 29 PPG and Cleveland held them to 7 points on just 4.0 YPP.  The defense has carried an offense and QB Mayfield that has been struggling.  In his last 2 games Mayfield has completed just 34 of his 64 pass attempts (53%) for just 1 TD and he’s been sacked 8 times.  He currently has a shoulder injury and has had that for a few weeks so that is definitely affecting his play.

Raiders – The Las Vegas offense has never been a problem.  They have a solid QB Carr and playmakers all over the field.  This team can score as they are currently 9th in the NFL and finished in the top 10 last year.  The problem has always been the defense.  Leading up to this season, between 2014 – 2020, the Raider defense never finished above 26th in YPP allowed.  Their average finish in those 5 years in that category was 28th.  This year they are ranked 9th in YPP allowed giving up just 5.2 YPP.   This defense is shortening opposing drives and getting off the field on 3rd down which has killed them in the past.  They are allowing just 32.7% success rate on 3rd down which is 8th in the NFL.  They had allowed an average success rate of 45% on 3rd down the previous 4 seasons, never finishing above 25th in that category.  Those 2 drastic improvements have this team in contention in the very tough AFC West.

Steelers – We touched on Pittsburgh last week and the same problems still exist.  They can’t run the ball (last in the NFL) and because of that Roethlisberger has attempted the 2nd most passes in the NFL this season behind only Brady.  The problem with that is he ranks near the bottom of the NFL in completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, and QB Rating so it’s not as if they are efficient with him chucking the ball all over the field.  Roethlisberger is also injury prone and that situation is already rearing it’s ugly head as he is dealing with a hip injury that is extremely limiting from what we’re told.  They have scored just 6 offensive TD’s in 4 games this season.  The defense looked better last week with TJ Watt back in the line up holding Green Bay to 5.1 YPP and sacking Rodgers 3 times after coming up with zero sacks the previous week vs Cincinnati.  The Steelers play host to Denver this week who will be playing without starting QB Bridgewater who was injured in last week’s home loss vs Baltimore.  They were a 1.5 point home dog to open and have since moved to a 1-point favorite as of this writing.  If they do go off as an underdog at home, the Steelers are 14-5-3 ATS in that situation since the start of the 2000 season.

Saints – The Saints offense has not been good in this their first season since 2006 without Drew Brees at QB.  They are ranked 28th in both YPG and YPP offense.  New starting QB Winston has thrown for the fewest yards of any signal caller that has started all 4 games this season (613 passing yards).  New Orleans is averaging 140 fewer passing YPG than their opponents which is the largest differential in the NFL.  They’ve had few to no explosive plays on offense with just 4 all season of more than 20 yards (lowest in the NFL).  The Saints have become the biggest run first team in the NFL with almost 58% of their offensive snaps dedicated to running the ball (most in the NFL).  Their defense has been the strength of the team since the beginning of last season and had looked very solid this year with the exception of last week when the Giants put up a whopping 8.1 YPP on this stop unit which is why they lost in OT.

Patriots – What a crazy stat line for New England in last week’s tight 19-17 home loss vs Tampa Bay.  If you would have told us prior to game time that the Bucs would run 20 more offensive snaps, hold the Pats to -1 yard rushing, and finish the game with a +2 turnover ratio we would have gone to the window with the house on Tampa -6.5.  The fact that the Bucs never led by more than 6 with those stats considered is crazy.  Belichick knew he’d struggle to run the ball vs TB so he ran it just 8 times the entire game.  After averaging just 4.6 and 4.3 YPP the previous 2 games vs the Jets & Saints, New England actually outgained Tampa 5.4 YPP to 5.1 YPP in the loss.  The New England defense continues to play well holding the Buccaneers to their 2nd lowest YPP total in their last 13 games.  The Pats currently rank 4th in the NFL allowing opponents to average only 4.8 YPP.

Texans – This offense has been absolutely putrid since rookie QB Mills took over for an injured Tyrod Taylor.  Last week they were shutout @ Buffalo 40-0 and the offense had 109 total yards on 42 plays (2.6 YPP) including just 4 total yards in the first half!  More than half of their total yards (58) came on Houston’s final 2 offensive possessions when the game was well out of hand.  Since replacing Taylor at halftime of the Cleveland game, Mills has led the Houston offense on 125 offensive snaps and gained a total 446 yards (3.5 YPP).  The Texans have scored just 2 offensive TD’s in the past 2.5 games.  The chances of it getting better for the Houston offense this weekend aren’t great.  They face a very solid New England defense (allows 4.8 YPP) and Belichick’s defenses have destroyed rookie QB’s throughout his career.  Under Belichick the Pats have won 28 of their 33 games facing a rookie QB and those signal callers have thrown nearly twice as many interceptions as TD’s.  Because of that, this looks like it will be the First game this season to kickoff with a total less than 40 points (currently 39).

Lions – Detroit was a 3-point dog @ Chicago last week and lost 24-14.  The Lions offense has struggled to put points on the board scoring 17, 17, and 14 points over their last 3 games.  Last week they had plenty of chances to beat the Bears.  They drove inside the Chicago 10-yard line on 4 different occasions and didn’t score a single point on those drives.  Their first 3 possessions of the game resulted in a fumble at the Chicago 8-yard line, shut out on downs at the Chicago 5-yard line, and a fumble at the Chicago 3-yard line.  They were also shut out on downs at the Bears 8-yard line in the second half to complete the 4 trips inside the 10 with ZERO points.