ASAWINS NFL News & Notes – October 21st

Chiefs – Holy smokes the Chiefs covered a game last week!  They topped Washington 31-13 to push their ATS record over the last 17 games to 3-13-1.  Washington now has the worst spread record in the league at 1-5 ATS.  KC continued to turn the ball over at an alarming rate and if it continues this will be a .500 type team.  They had 3 more giveaways, all inside Washington’s 35 yard line including one at the 5-yard line, and that means KC now has 14 turnovers on the season, most in the NFL (Jacksonville next at 12).  QB Mahomes has not helped matters with 8 interceptions in 6 games this year, many of those poor decisions on his part.  Mahomes had thrown 8 interceptions in his previous 19 games entering this season.  One bright spot besides the fact they won the game @ Washington, was the defense.  They had allowed 30 points in 4 consecutive games but limited Washington to just 13 points on 276 yards (just 4.8 YPP).  Their first 5 games of the season this KC defense allowed 8.2, 7.1, 5.8, 6.6, and 8.1 YPP so a definite improvement last week.

Vikings – Minnesota is really close to being on top of the NFC North.  They sit 2 games behind Green Bay with a 3-3 record but their 3 losses have come by a combined 11 points.  Those included an OT loss @ Cincinnati, a 1-point loss @ Arizona who is currently undefeated, and a 7 point loss vs Cleveland.  The Viking defense looks like they are heading in the right direction after struggling early in the season.  Over their last 3 games they have allowed a total of 921 yards on 205 offensive snaps for an average of just 4.4 YPP.  To put that in perspective, the top defense in the NFL right now is Buffalo and they are allowing 4.7 YPP.  The offense struggled to put points on the board vs Cleveland and Detroit but looked much better last week rolling up 34 points on one of the better defenses in the NFL, Carolina.  QB Cousins doesn’t get much hype but the fact that he’s throws 36 TD’s and 5 interceptions in his last 15 games dating back to last year is damn impressive.  They are now heading into their bye week and this is a team to watch out for moving forward despite their tough schedule which has them facing Dallas, Baltimore, LA Chargers, Green Bay, and San Fran after their break.

Titans – The Titans offense was fantastic on Monday night vs the Bills.  They put up 7.1 YPP and 6.6 YPC vs a defense that came into the game allowing 4.3 YPP and 3.7 YPC.  RB Henry continues to marvel with 143 yards on just 20 carries (7.1 YPC) and 3 TD’s.  He now has at least 3 rushing TD’s in 3 games this year and the rest of the RB’s in the league have combined for ZERO 3 TD games!  Henry has now rushed for almost 5,000 yards in his last 41 games.  Simply amazing considering his usage rate is so much higher than every other RB over the last 2+ seasons.  Eventually carrying the ball as much as he does will cause RB’s to wear down but he hasn’t hit that situation yet.  The Titan are now 4-2 after upsetting the Bills for the 2nd straight season at home.  They are in a terrible division with 2 of the worst teams in the NFL (Houston & Jacksonville).  One of their losses was the in the season opener vs the undefeated Cardinals and the other was @ NY Jets when Tennessee was without both starting WR’s (Jones & Brown).  They are back and healthy and this team is another to keep an eye on moving forward.

Bears – the Chicago offense continues to be one of the worst in the NFL.  They are averaging just 4.3 YPP which is dead last in the NFL.  They are averaging just 16.3 PPG which is 30th in the NFL and they’ve scored only 10 offensive TD’s in 6 games this season.  Rookie QB Fields has played been the starter for 4.5 games now (came in at halftime of Cincinnati game) and he’s only completing 53% of his passes for an average of 138 passing yards per game.  He’s thrown only 2 TD passes this year and the Bears as a whole have thrown only 3 TD passes which is the fewest in the NFL.  The Bears are 5-1 to the UNDER in their games this year and their stats are in line with that.  Chicago games are averaging just 118 plays per and 37 points per game which are both the fewest in the NFL.  Plus the Bears run the ball almost 51% of the time which is 2nd most in the league and that eats clock.  Chicago travels to high scoring Tampa (32 PPG) this week.  Can this offense keep up?

Ravens – Baltimore picked up a dominating win last week at home vs LA Chargers.  It was a big time letdown spot for the Ravens after coming from 16 points down in the final 10 minutes vs Indy on Monday night and winning in OT.  That game was on a Monday night so Baltimore had to follow that up with a short week of practice to prepare for the Chargers.  The Ravens rolled 34-6 and they held QB Herbert and LA to just 3.9 YPP.  That would have been tough to predict prior to the game as LAC entered averaging 6.0 YPP (11th in NFL) while Baltimore was allowing 6.3 YPP (28th in the NFL).  It was the Ravens best defensive performance of the year on a YPP basis and the Chargers worst performance on the offensive side.  Baltimore has been a big play offense as well as a defense that allows big plays.  The Ravens rank 1st in the NFL averaging a 20+ yard gain every 8 offensive snaps and their defense allows a 20+ yard gain every 9 offensive snaps which is the worst rate in the NFL.  Most of their offense continues to come from QB Jackson who is not only the 9th leading passer in the NFL with 1,686 yards but he’s also the 7th leading RUSHER in the NFL!  This weekend they face off vs AFC North rival Cincinnati in a game in a battle for 1st place in the division.

Giants – the G-Men were trounced at home by the Rams 38-11 last Sunday.  4 turnovers by the Giants led directly to 21 of the Rams 38 points including TD drives of 12 yards, 14 yards, and 49 yards.  If we go back to the previous week when Dallas rolled over the Giants, they have now had 6 giveaways in the last 2 games leading to 31 of their opponents 82 points (38% of points).  6 of their 9 giveaways this season have come in the last 2 games, both blowout losses.  So the defense is struggling allowing 41 PPG over their last 2 partly because they’ve been put in a bad position by the offense.  The offense is averaging only 1.2 red zone TD’s per game (31st in the NFL) and when they do get inside the 20 yard line QB Jones is just 6 of 22 on pass attempts (27%) which is the worst in the league.  Their overall YPP differential isn’t terrible (-0.4) but their lack of execution near the goal line is killing them.  NY is really banged up on offense with WR’s Golladay and Slayton questionable and WR Toney out.  They also lost starting LT Thomas who was put on IR following an injury in last week’s loss vs the Rams.

Jets – the NYJ are coming off a bye week after losing to Atlanta in London 2 weeks ago.  They have a rematch this weekend vs New England.  The 2 teams met just one month ago and the Patriots dominated on the scoreboard 25-6.  While the scoreboard is all that matters, it did not tell the entire story.  The Jets ran 11 more offensive snaps in the game and actually outgained the Pats 4.9 YPP to 4.6 YPP.  They held an advantage in the trenches as well rushing for 4.9 YPC while holding the Pa12triots to 4.2 YPC.  So how did New England win by 19 points?  NYJ rookie QB Wilson threw 4 interceptions that led to 17 of the Patriots 25 points.  New England scored points on 6 of their offensive possessions (2 TD’s and 4 FG’s) and 5 of those scoring possessions came on drives of 43 yards or less.  The Jets were +5.5 in that game at home vs New England and they are now +7 to +7.5 on the road.  NY has trailed by 10 points or more for just over 62% of their offensive snaps (most in the league) and they have not scored a single point in the first quarter this season! 

Dolphins – In a weird twist that doesn’t happen very often, the Fins are in an extremely tough situational spot here.  They played in London last week and lost a tight game to the then winless Jags 23-20.  They did not receive a bye this week, as most teams do after playing in London, and will host the Falcons who had last weekend off after playing in London the previous week.  There have been 4 teams that played on London this year (Jacksonville, Miami, Atlanta, and NY Jets) and the Dolphins are the only team in that group to not receive a bye the following weekend.  That’s a big reason why Miami opened as a 2.5 point favorite in this game at home vs Atlanta and now the Falcons are favored by 2.5.  Miami is just 1-5 SU on the season but they game they won @ New England (17-16 final score) they were outgained by 134 yards.  They could easily by 0-6 this year and this is a team that finished 10-6 last year.  The Fins have the 2nd worst point differential in the NFL at -78 (only Houston is worse) and they rank 30th in offensive YPP (4.7) and 26th in defensive YPP (6.0).  They can’t run the ball (71 YPG is last in the NFL) and have become one dimensional on offense passing on nearly 69% of their offensive snaps (most in the NFL).  On potential bright spot is QB Tagovailoa came back last week from injury and completed 70% of his passes in their 3-point loss to Jacksonville.

Lions – Detroit had a couple of down to the wire losses over the last few weeks losing on a FG as time expired vs both Baltimore & Minnesota.  Last week they were blasted at home by the Bengals 34-11 in a game they averaged only 3.7 YPP.  While they have had a few tight games, their overall numbers on both sides of the ball are appalling.  Detroit is the only team in the NFL to not take a single offensive snap with the lead this season.  They are also the only team in the NFL to take at least one offensive snap while trailing by double digits in every game this season.  They rank 29th in offensive YPP and 31st in defensive YPP.  Defensively, just over 24% of pass plays vs the Lions have gained at least 20 yards which is worst in the NFL.  Now they go to LA to face a Rams offense 2nd in YPP and 6th in scoring.  A good reason why they are 15 point underdogs.  Detroit has not been an underdog of more than 14 points since the 2010 season.  They’ve only been a dog of more than 2 TD’s 6 times in their history!  They are 4-1-1 ATS in those contests.  We know Lions QB Goff is motivated to take on the team that dumped him but can he do enough offensively to keep them in this game?