ASAWINS NFL News & Notes – Oct 28th

CHIEFS – KC scores 3 points in a game where the total was set at 58!  Unbelievable.  They were down 27-0 at half vs Tennessee and only averaged 4.9 YPP vs a Titan defense that was allowing 6.1 YPP coming into the game (27^th in the league).  They turned the ball over 3 more times on Sunday and now have 17 giveaways this season which is the most in the NFL.  They have more turnovers this season in 7 games than they did the entire season in 2020.  KC did not cross midfield in the first half but had some chances in the 2^nd half.  They pushed inside the Tennessee 30-yard line in every possession in the 2^nd half and came away with just 3 points.  To put that in perspective, the Chiefs have played 63 games (regular season & playoffs) since the start of the 2018 season.  They had been held to 10 points or less just ONE other time (before Sunday) during that stretch while scoring at least 35 points 19 times.  The loss also dropped their spread record to 3-14-1 ATS their last 18 games.  QB Mahomes left the game in the 4^th quarter with a potential concussion so that’s something to keep an eye on as they get ready to host the NY Giants on Sunday.

BRONCOS – Denver has plummeted back to earth after starting the season 3-0.  We’ve mentioned a few times in this column we felt their early wins were a bit of a farse as they topped the Giants, Jags, and Jets who currently have a combined record of 4-15.  The Broncos have now last 4 in a row since their hot start and they have been outscored by 37 points in those 4 losses.  They’ve also been outgained by 330 combined yards in those 4 games.  They now sit in last place in the AFC West tied with, believe it or not, the Chiefs.  After not turning the ball over in the first 3 games, starting QB Bridgewater has now thrown 5 interceptions in his last 4 contests.  His average QBR through the first three games was 68 and through the his most recent 4 games that average QBR has dropped to 29.5.  Bridgewater’s ATS record as a starting QB was a remarkable 38-12-1 through his first 51 starts which spanned through his start vs the Jets on September 26^th.  He’s now lost 4 straight vs the spread.  Denver lost @ Cleveland last Thursday vs a Browns team that was without their starting QB, their top 2 RB’s, and much of their offensive line.  This week they are favored at home vs Washington who has the worst spread record in the NFL at 1-6 ATS.

WASHINGTON – We were on the Washington / GB Over 48 Points on Sunday and got screwed to be honest.  The Washington offense played very well rolling up over 400 total yards and averaged more than 6.0 YPP.  It was their 2^nd highest YPP mark in a game this season (only vs Atlanta was higher).  They pushed inside the GB 30-yard line SEVEN times and scored 10 points.  On 5 of their possessions Washington was shut out on downs at the GB 1 inch line, the 3-yard line and the 27-yard line, threw a pick at the 12-yard line, and had a 42-yard FG blocked.  Their 10 points on 400 yards gained says they scored 1 point for every 40 yards of offense.  To put that in perspective, the NFL average is 1 point for every 15 yards gained and the worst number in the NFL belongs to the Jets with 1 point for every 20 yards of offense.  If they would have scored at the NFL average yards per point Washington would have put up 27 points on Sunday.  Their 14-point loss @ GB dropped them to 1-6 ATS on the season, the worst mark in the NFL.  The defense has fallen off a cliff this season.  After allowing 21 PPG last year (5^th in the NFL), this stop unit is dead last in the league this season allowing 30 PPG.

BILLS – Buffalo had last week off and they return to action this Sunday at home vs Miami as a 13.5 point favorite.  To put that huge number in perspective, last year when the Bills played host to Miami they were -3.5.  This weekend marks the second highest spread in this AFC East series since the start of the 1986 season.  The Bills are 2^nd in the NFL in scoring at 33.8 PPG but believe it or not, they really should be averaging more than that.  They are 2^nd in the NFL in red zone scoring attempts per game (4.8) but they have scored TD’s on just 55% of their possessions inside the 20 yard line which is 26^th in the NFL.  All 6 teams ranked below them in red zone TD% have losing records.  The Bills have kicked more red zone FG’s than any other team in the league.  If they ever become more efficient inside the 20, watch out.

DOLPHINS – The Fins have had back to back very tough losses.  Last weekend they lost on an Atlanta FG as time expired 30-28.  Their previous game they lost in London on a Jacksonville FG at time expired 23-20.  It marked Miami’s 4^th straight spread loss as well and those losses have come by a combined 37 points to the number (an average of 9.25 points per game vs the spread).  QB Tagvailoa had his 2^nd solid start since returning from injury.  In their 2 last second losses, he has completed 75% of his passes for over 600 yards, 6 TD’s and 3 interceptions.  He looks like he’s starting to round into form in his 2^nd season despite the rumors that the Fins are possibly pursuing DeShaun Watson from the Texans.  Miami ranks 26^th in YPP offense (4.9) and 28^th in YPP defense (6.1).  They had been outgained by at least 98 yards in every game this season prior to the last 2 which they slightly outgained the Jags & Falcons.  This Sunday’s game in Buffalo will be the Fins 8^th straight game without a bye and that includes a trip to London 2 weeks ago.

PATRIOTS – The offense broke out with a huge game last Sunday vs their division rival Jets.  The Pats scored 54 points on 551 total yards of offense.  Rookie QB Jones threw for over 300 yards and 2 TD’s in the win.  They scored points on 9 of their 10 offensive possessions.  They came into the game averaging just 20.8 PPG this season and just 20.5 PPG since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay.  The last time the Pats put up 50+ points was back in 2015 with Brady leading them to a 51-17 win over Jacksonville.  New England was never able to reach 50 points vs the Jets with Brady and QB and in fact it was the first time ever it’s happened in this AFC East rivalry.    

JETS – The Jets defense, which was the strength of their team the first 4 games of the season, has had back to back poor efforts.  On Sunday they allowed a fairly pedestrian New England offense ranked 23^rd in YPP and 24^th in scoring to light them up for 54!  It was the most points allowed by the NYJ since since 1978.  They allowed 450 total yards to the Falcons and 551 yards to the Patriots last week.  To make matters worse, the Falcons were averaging 319 YPG entering their game vs the Jets and the Pats were putting up an average of 322 YPG prior to facing NY last Sunday.  The NYJ defense was allowing 353 YPG over their first 4 games and 500 over their last 2.  The offense hasn’t helped much.  They now rank dead last in the NFL averaging 13.3 PPG and they have scored a SINGLE POINT in the 1^st quarter this season.  QB Wilson was injured early in the 2^nd quarter last week (knee) and is expected to be sidelined 2 to 4 weeks.  Because of that, they made a trade with the Eagles to acquire QB Joe Flacco this week.

RAMS – The LA Rams went off last week as 17 point favorites at home vs Detroit.  This week they are currently 14.5 point favorites @ Houston.  The Rams never came close to covering last week’s game.  In fact they trailed entering the 4^th quarter before pulling out a 28-19 win.  They never led by more than 6 points until a late FG with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game gave LA the 9 point win.  Detroit outgained the Rams on a YPG & YPP basis and outrushed them 4.9 YPC to 2.5 YPC.  Now they face a Houston team that has lost 6 straight win 5 of those coming by double digits including last Sunday’s 31-5 loss @ Arizona.  Entering last season LA was 8-1 ATS as a favorite of -10 or more from 2013 – 2019.  Over the last 2 seasons, they are 0-3 ATS in that role losing those games by an average of 10 PPG vs the number.  The Rams have been solid coming off a point spread loss going 13-3-1 ATS in that spot.

TEXANS – The Houston offense continues to be abysmal.  They scored 5 points last week vs Arizona (2 points to the defense for a safety) and they’ve totaled 8 points the last two weeks.  Last week they jumped out to a 5-0 lead before getting outscored 31-0 by the undefeated Cardinals.  They had 160 total yards on 3.3 YPP.  Since rookie QB Mills took over for an injured Tyrod Taylor, Houston has been outscored 151 to 39 in their last 5 games (average score of 30-7).  If you throw out their performance vs New England in which they scored 22 points, the Texans have scored a grand total of 17 points (15 points by the offense) in their other 4 games during that 5 game run.  They have scored a grand total of ONE TD in those other 4 contests (minus Patriots game).  In those 4 games, Houston has had 45 offensive possessions and scored 1 TD and 3 FG’s!  This Sunday they host the LA Rams and after going off as a 20.5 point dog last week @ Arizona, they are +14.5 this weekend.  The good news is, starting QB Taylor is back practicing this week after a hamstring injury and might be able to play on Sunday.