ASAWINS NFL News & Notes – Oct 14th

NFL NOTES

NFL TOTAL POINTS – Average points scored in a game last year was 49.6 which was highest ever.  This year so far it’s 47.4 per game – UNDERS are 43-37 this year (pending Monday Night)

TO’s IN NFL – Teams that win TO battle have covered at 75 to 80% clip historically.  Last week teams that won TO battle were 6-2 ATS – so far this season teams that win TO battle are 48-9 ATS

BEST & WORST ATS TEAMS – Dallas is the only team in the NFL that remains unbeaten vs the spread at 5-0 ATS.  There are 5 teams that currently stand at 1-4 ATS which is the worst spread record in the league (KC, Jacksonville, Washington, NY Jets, & San Francisco).

Lions – Better start calling them the tough luck Lions.  They are one of just two 0-5 teams (Jacksonville is the other) but they are getting oh so close to their first win.  They were topped as time expired last Saturday with Minnesota making the game winning 54-yard FG for the 19-17 win.  In 2 of their last 3 games, Detroit led with less than 5 seconds remaining and lost both on long FG’s.  Baltimore nailed a 66 yard FG as time ran out a few weeks ago to pick up a 2-point win over Detroit.  Their overall defensive numbers are not good ranking 31st in YPP allowed and 25th in scoring defense, but they are improving on that side of the ball.  The Lions allowed 76 points in their first 2 games alone and they’ve given up a total of just 62 in their last 3 games (20.6 PPG allowed) holding 2 of their last 3 opponents under 20 points.  The offense needs to start putting some points on the board as they’ve topped 17 points just once this season. 

Chiefs – Who predicted after 5 weeks the Chiefs would be in last place in the AFC West with a point differential of -9?  Probably nobody.  Most are blaming the defense which definitely has a major part in their 2-3 record.  They have allowed the 2nd most yardage gained on the season (ahead of only Seattle) and they’ve given up the most points in the NFL through 5 weeks.  Another HUGE reason for their struggles this season is turnovers.  They are 31st in the NFL in TO margin at -1.3 per game.  Last year they were 7th in that category at +0.3 per game.  As we’ve seen historically, NFL teams simply cannot overcome a poor TO margin with teams losing the turnover battle per game this year are 9-48 ATS (see above)!  They’ve only won the TO margin in 1 game this season and they’ve already been -4 TO’s in 2 games this year (Buffalo & LA Chargers).  Simply too hard to win games with those numbers much less contend for a playoff berth.

Cowboys – Dallas is the only team remaining with a perfect ATS record.  Their offense is a big reason.  We know it’s early but the Dallas offense has shown they just might be the top offense in the NFL.  Their overall numbers speak for themselves with the Boys sitting #2 in scoring, #1 in total offense, #2 in YPP, #3 in YPC, and #7 in yards per pass attempt.  Beyond that, we’ve taken note of a few things that may just solidify their spot a top the offensive mountain.  Two weeks ago they faced a Carolina defense that had allowed only 3.7 YPP entering the game.  Dallas put up a ridiculous 7.7 YPP in their game vs the Panthers.  We felt Carolina might regress a bit on defense after facing three lower tier offensive teams to start the season but that may not be the case.  That same Panther defense limited the Eagles (who were 5th in the NFL averaging 6.5 YPP entering the game) to just 4.5 YPP last Sunday.  Dallas has averaged at least 6.9 YPP in 3 of their 5 games and they’ve scored 121 points in their last 3 games alone (40.3 PPG) and those were vs defenses that are allowing 10.2 PPG (Carolina), 20.7 PPG (Philadelphia), and 23.7 PPG (NYG) in the other games they’ve played this season minus their match up with Dallas.  Impressive offense to say the least.

Browns – So if you were to tell us before last Sunday’s game @ LA Chargers that the Browns would have 230 yards rushing, over 500 total yards, score 42 points, and not have a single turnover we would have bet the farm and whatever else we could find on Cleveland who was an underdog in the game!  Despite those numbers they lost 47-42 vs the Chargers.  It was a wild offensive game that saw 6 TD’s scored in the final 11:22 of the game.  In the 4th quarter the 2 teams combined for TD drives of 61, 78, 75, 75, 75, and 48 yards on just 33 total offensive snaps.  There were NINE TD drives of at least 72 yards in the game.  There were a total of 12 TD’s scored in the game (no defensive or special teams TD’s) and the average TD drive was 7 plays for 72 yards (10 YPP average).  Two of the top defenses in the NFL entering the game (Cleveland was allowing 16.7 PPG & LA Chargers were allowing 18.5 PPG) didn’t show up which was more than surprising to us.

Texans – Entering last week’s game vs the Patriots, rookie QB Mills had completed 38 of his 67 passes (56%) with 2 TD’s and 5 interceptions.  He was averaging just 5.3 yards per pass attempt.  The Houston offense was averaging only 3.5 YPP with Mills at the helm prior to last Sunday’s game vs New England.  It’s possible Mills is turning the corner.  He looked like a completely different QB last week completing 21 of his 29 passes (72%) for over 300 yards and 3 TD’s with no interceptions.  He averaged 10.8 yard per attempt which was double was he was averaging coming into the game.  The Texans averaged 6.4 YPP which was nearly 3 YPP more than what they were averaging the last 3 games combined.  And that was vs a head coach, Bill Belichick, that has had huge success stuffing rookie QB’s.  Houston travels to Indy this week who will be coming home off a 3 game road trip on a short week having played Monday Night @ Baltimore.

Patriots – The Pats were in a very tough spot on Sunday having outplayed Tampa Bay at home the previous weekend but missing a FG as time expired and losing 19-17.  It was a difficult bounce back spot @ Houston vs a team that lost their previous 2 games by a combined score of 64-9.  New England entered the game with 4 of their 5 opening day starting offensive lineman sidelined with injuries or Covid issues.  They were down 22-9 midway through the 3rd quarter and from that point on rookie QB Jones took over.  He led the Patriots to 4 scores on their final 4 possessions (1 TD & 3 FG’s) to lead them to the 25-22 come from behind win.  He completed 11 of his 13 pass attempts on those final 4 possessions.  His final drive was most impressive with New England taking over with 7:15 remaining in a 22-22 game.  Jones led them on a 7 minute drive, 84 yard drive that ended in a chip shot FG with 15 seconds left in the game.  For the game Jones completed 76% of his passes for 231 yards.  Another rookie QB that is starting to come into his own. 

Raiders – Vegas has obviously had some internal problems the last few weeks with the Jon Gruden situation.  Now he is gone and we’ll have to see how that affects this team.  Gruden hasn’t been the only issue.  What happened to the potent Las Vegas offense?  After scoring 33, 26, and 31 points in their first 3 games (all wins) they have been held to a total of 23 points their last 2 games combined vs LA Chargers and Chicago (both losses).  Their scoring numbers were a bit misleading in their first 3 games as they averaged 30 PPG, however they scored 12 points in OT so their actual scoring numbers were 26 PPG.  Either way, they’ve dropped off a cliff offensively.  In their last 2 games they’ve run a total of 116 offensive plays for just 472 yards (4.0 YPP).  After averaging almost 9.0 yards per pass attempt in his first 3 games, QB Carr has averaged only 5.9 yards per attempt his last 2 games.  The Raiders have now scored just 3 offensive TD’s in their last 26 possessions dating back to their game vs Miami.

Jets – The NY Jets get a bye this week after traveling to London week and their defense needs it.  They were on the field A LOT over the last few weeks.  The week before traveling to London they played host to the Titans and they were on the field for 93 plays!  After that they had to travel half way around the world to play the Falcons and in that game they faced 75 offensive snaps.  The NY offense ran 53 fewer offensive plays in those 2 games combined.  In that loss to Atlanta in London, the NY Jets defense, who ranks 9th in YPP allowed, gave up 6.0 YPP.  That was to a Falcon offense that put up 4.0 YPP, 5.0 YPP, 5.0 YPP, and 5.3 YPP in their games prior to facing the Jets.  Prior to that game vs Atlanta, the NY defense had allowed an average of 4.8 YPP in their previous 3 games.  It was obvious they were out of gas in their loss last Sunday and a bye week should have this defense refreshed when they face the Patriots on October 24th.

49ers – San Fran has now lost 3 straight after getting upended 17-10 @ Arizona last week.  Despite those 3 straight losses, the Niners have actually outgained their last 2 opponents (Seattle & Arizona) by an average of 6 YPP to 4.7 YPP.  Last week vs the now undefeated Cards the 49ers were +0.6 YPP and +1.9 YPC.  In that game they only scored 10 points yet only punted once in their 9 possessions.  Their first 3 possessions went like this…interception at the Arizona 28 yard line, shut out on downs at the Arizona 34 yard line, and shut out on downs at the Cardinal 1 yard line.  They also missed a FG and were shut out on downs 2 more times on the 2nd half.  Rookie QB Lance was decent in his first start for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo throwing for 192 yards and also leading SF in rushing with 89 yards.  Speaking of injuries it could be argued the Niners were as banged up as any team in the league last season.  That has unfortunately continued in 2021 as they currently have 11 guys they expected to contribute on the injured reserve including start RB Mostert who was just put on the list on Tuesday.  A bye week now for San Fran before they host Indy on October 24th.