ASAWINS NFL News & Notes – Nov 10th

Turnovers IN NFL – Teams that win TO battle have covered at 75 to 80% clip historically.  Last week teams that won TO battle were 9-3 ATS – so far this season teams that win TO battle are 85-18 ATS.

BILLS – What has happened to Buffalo’s offense? They went into their bye a few weeks ago having scored at least 30 points in 5 of their first 6 games.  Coming out of their bye they scored 26 vs Miami (currently 27th in scoring defense) and 6 vs Jacksonville (currently ranked 26th in scoring defense).  Even their 26 vs Miami was a bit misleading as they had just 10 points entering the 4th quarter and scored a TD very late after Dolphin interception at their own 11 yard line.  The Bills averaged just 5.3 YPP and 4.6 YPP vs defense that allow 5.8 YPP and 5.9 YPP respectively.  This week Buffalo faces off vs a Jets defense that is currently in a free fall allowing 54, 31, and 45 points their last 3 games.  If the Bills struggle again this week, then they have potentially have some serious problems on offense.

NINERS – San Francisco opened last week as a 2.5 point dog at home vs Arizona.  The line moved to the Niners favored by 3.5 when rumblings of Cardinal QB Murray not playing hit the airwaves.  Well Murray didn’t play, neither did top WR Hopkins, and SF still lost by 2 TD’s in a game they had to have.  The YPP numbers were fairly close (Arizona 6.4 YPP & Niners 6.0 YPP) but 3 turnovers for SF (0 for Arizona) was the deciding factor.  There have been some red flags with the 49er defense over the last few weeks.  They allowed 30 points vs Indianapolis, 22 vs a Chicago offense that has only topped 20 twice all season, and then 31 last week facing a back up QB.  Offensively starting QB Garoppolo has underwhelmed to say the least losing 4 of his last 5 starts (only win vs Chicago) with 6 TD’s and 5 interceptions during that stretch.  Don’t be at all surprised if head coach Shanahan makes a switch and goes with rookie QB Lance at some point soon.

DOLPHINS – Miami finally picked up a 17-9 win over Houston after 7 consecutive losses.  Last week’s Houston vs Miami game was just a brutal watch if you like offense.  The teams averaged 4.1 & 3.6 YPP and they combined for NINE turnovers.  Neither team reached 275 total yards and of the 26 offensive possessions in the game, 19 were 6 plays or fewer.  The Fins played without starting QB Tagovailoa who is recovering from a broken finger which happened the previous week vs Buffalo.  That was unfortunate for Miami as he was making progress completing over 68% of his passes for 825 total yards in his 3 games since returning from an injury.  A short week (Fins host Baltimore on Thursday) probably isn’t ideal for a Tagovailoa return.

VIKINGS – And Minnesota blows another game in which they led.  The Vikings were up by 2 TD’s in the 2nd half and lost in OT @ Baltimore on Sunday.  Minnesota, now with a 3-5 record, has led in the 4th quarter in 3 of their 5 losses and trailed by 4 points or less in the 4th quarter in the other 2 losses.  Amazingly, 5 of the Vikings 8 games, were decided on the final play of the game or in OT.  This team is very close to 7-1 but also very close to being 1-7.  Minnesota’s games have been decided by a total of 39 points or just 4.8 points per game.  The Vikes head to LA this week to take on the Chargers in their 2nd of back to back road games.

PANTHERS – The fall of QB Darnold is the theme of this Carolina Panther story.  In their first 3 games vs the Jets, Saints, and Texans, Darnold completed 67% of his passes with 3 TD’s and 1 interception, all wins.  Since that, the Panthers have lost 4 of their last 5 games and Darnold has been bad to say the least.  During that 5 game stretch he is completing only 54% of his pass attempts with 4 TD’s and 10 interceptions.  Over their last 6 games the Carolina offense has been terrible to say the least.  They have run a total of 397 offensive snaps for just 1,697 total yards.  That’s an average of only 4.2 YPP.  To put that in perspective, the Bears are the worst team in the NFL in that category this year and they average 4.4 YPP.  In their last 3 games the Panthers have scored a grand total of 28 points with ONE touchdown.  Carolina is currently a 10 point underdog as they travel to Arizona on Sunday.

EAGLES – Philly lost 27-24 at home vs LA Chargers last week.  LA kicked a FG to win as time expired.  Eagle QB Hurts completed only 11 passes which has been the norm for the Philadelphia offense as of late.  Over the last 4 games the Philly offense has been big time run heavy.  They’ve completed an average of just 12.5 passes per game during that stretch after completing an average of nearly 24 passes per game over their first 5 contests.  AS you might expect, the Eagles are one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL with 46.1% of their plays coming on the ground (7th in the NFL).  Those numbers have been magnified over their last 4 games with just over 58% of their offensive snaps coming on the ground.  This week the Eagles face the Broncos who rank 6th in rushing YPG allowed and 11th in YPC allowed.

CHIEFS – The once unstoppable KC offense has hit the skids.  After averaging 33.5 PPG over their first 4 games this season, the Chiefs have averaged just 17.4 PPG over their last 5.  In the last 3 weeks they’ve scored just 36 TOTAL points for an average of 12 PPG.  Last week KC struggled to beat a Green Bay team with Jordan Love making his first start ever at QB.  The Chiefs squeaked out a 13-7 win but only averaged 3.8 YPP and they were outgained by 1.2 YPP in that win.  Green Bay missed a FG, had a FG blocked, were shut out on downs at the KC 38 yard line, and threw a pick at the KC 24 yard line.  It was a game the Packers easily could have won despite Aaron Rodgers being on the shelf.  This Sunday the Chiefs are 2.5 point favorites at AFC West rival Raiders.

PATRIOTS – Watch out for Bill Belichick and his New England Patriots.  They have now won 4 of their last 5 games and their only loss was vs the 6-2 Dallas Cowboys by just 6 points in overtime.  Even in that loss, the Patriots ran 32 fewer offensive snaps and still almost beat a very good Dallas team.  The New England offense, which scored only 71 total points in their first 4 games (17.7 PPG), has started to gel under rookie QB Jones.  They are averaging 31.8 PPG over their last 5 games and they dominated the Panthers on the road last week 24-6.  Speaking of the road, New England is now a perfect 4-0 on the road but just 1-4 at home.  They now sit just a half game behind the Bills in the AFC West after Buffalo has lost 2 of their last 3 games.  The Pats host Cleveland this week and they are currently a 1-point favorite after opening as a 3-point chalk.

COLTS – Watch out for Indy.  This team started the season losing 3 straight games and have since won 4 of their last 6.  Their only losses during that run were vs two of the top teams on the AFC, Baltimore & Tennessee.  They could easily be on a 6-0 run right now as they led Baltimore by 16 points in the 4th quarter and lost in OT and led Tennessee by 14 points and lost in OT.  The offense has scored at least 30 points in 4 consecutive games and they are averaging 34.2 PPG during that stretch.  Now that Tennessee RB Henry is out, Indy’s RB Taylor just might be the top back in the league.  He is averaging 145 total yards per game over his last 6.  QB Wentz is playing as well as he has in quite some time as well with 14 TD passes and just 2 interceptions over the last 6 games.  The Colts remaining schedule ranks 23rd according to Football Outsiders so they have a chance to make some noise in the AFC in the 2nd half of the season.