ASAwins NFL NEW$ & NOTE$ – Sept 22nd

ASAWINS FOOTBALL RECAP – In Case You Missed It…

NFL NOTES

NFL UNDERDOGS & TOTAL POINTS – Underdogs went 21-11 through first 2 weeks of the season (waiting on Monday Night) – 15 outright wins by underdogs.  The average point total for weeks 1 & 2 of the NFL was 48.  Last year games averaged 49.6 total points which was the highest mark ever.

TO’s IN NFL – Teams that win TO battle have covered at 75 to 80% clip historically.  Last week teams that won TO battle were 11-1 ATS – so far this season teams that win TO battle are 22-3 ATS

Buccaneers – Tampa Bay scored 48 points last week on just 341 total yards (they were actually outgained by Atlanta in the 48-25 win).  That comes to 1 point for every 7 yards gained.  For the season they are scoring 1 point for every 9.8 yards gained which leads the NFL.  Their 5 offensive TD drives on Sunday lasted 3, 4, 5, 6, and 8 plays.  Tom Brady already has 9 TD passes which puts him on pace for close to 80 for the season!  The Bucs final 2 TD’s of the game were 31-yard and 15-yard interception returns.  They have now won 9 straight games scoring at least 30 points in each of those wins.

**Bucs are dogs this week @ LA Rams – Since he took over as a starter in 2001, Brady is 39-17-1 against the spread as an underdog with 34 straight up wins in 57 tries.  Don’t be surprised if Tampa is the favorite in this game by kickoff.

Falcons – After 2 games Atlanta has a point differential of -49 which is the worst in the NFL by more than 2 TD’s (Miami is next worst at -34).  With last week’s spread loss the Falcons are now 0-2 ATS on the season and 22-42 ATS their last 66 games dating back to October of 2017.

Steelers – The Pittsburgh offense looks like it’s stuck in reverse.  They have scored just 3 offensive TD’s in their 2 games this season.  Last year the Steelers finished dead last in the NFL in rushing averaging 82 YPG.  Their hope was drafting Alabama RB Harris in the 1st round would help jumpstart the ground game.  Not so far.  This year they are averaging 57 YPG after 2 games. 

Chiefs – With Sunday’s ATS (and SU) loss @ Baltimore, the Chiefs are now 1-11-1 ATS their last 13 games dating back to last November. KC put up over 8.0 YPP in their loss to the Ravens but Baltimore controlled the ground game (251 yards rushing to 62) which led to 19 more offensive snaps.  The KC defense has been down right terrible through 2 games allowing 7.6 YPP which is the worst in the NFL by more than 0.5 YPP.

Ravens – The Ravens have now topped 100 yards rushing in 41 straight games.  The NFL record is 43 consecutive games.  Their win and cover as a home dog on Sunday moves their current mark to 5-1 both SU & ATS when getting points at home dating back to 2015.  The defense has allowed 30+ points in each of their first 2 games after allowing just 18 PPG a year ago.

Bengals – After finishing 31st in the NFL last year allowing their QB to be sacked an average of 4.5 times per game, Cincinnati is right back at it with QB Burrow getting sacked 9 times already in 2 games.  Not ideal for a QB recovering from an ACL tear.

Broncos – Denver is 2-0 with road wins over the Giants and Jags, two of the worst teams in the NFL.  Now they get to play host to the NY Jets who just might be the worst team in the entire NFL.  Their defense has looked great limiting their 2 opponents to just 26 total point and 500 total yards (4.6 YPP).  Now they face a Jets offense that has scored a grand total of 20 points in 2 games with 5 turnovers.  We’ll get a better feel for Denver after this week when they play Baltimore, @ Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, and @ Cleveland the next 4 weeks.  QB Bridgewater continues to be a HUGE money maker for bettors with an outstanding 37-14 ATS record as a starter in the NFL.

Saints – After beating Green Bay 38-3 in the first week of the season the New Orleans offense under new QB Winston looked solid.  They weren’t great in that game (just 5.4 YPP) but Winston was very efficient with 0 turnovers and 5 TD’s passes in just 20 pass attempts.  In their 27-6 loss @ Carolina last week the offense looked terrible.  Just 6 first downs and 128 TOTAL yards (3.0 YPP).  The Saints LONGEST offensive possession last week lasted 6 plays.  Winston’s 2 interceptions means he has now turned the ball over 121 times BY HIMSELF in his 74 starts! 

Packers – Topped Detroit 35-17 but we still have big time questions with the Packers.  They were outgained by Detroit and the defense allowed 6.1 YPP to an offense that will probably finish near the bottom of the NFL.  They’ve been outgained 5.7 to 4.8 YPP in the first 2 games.  GB was also beat at the line of scrimmage again allowing 5.7 YPC while gaining just 3.1 YPC.  They are now averaging just 3.0 YPC on the season while allowing 4.8 YPC.  The Lions had 2 turnovers (0 for GB) and they were shut out on downs twice in Packer territory.  GB defense played OK in the 2nd half but prior to that their opponents (Saints & Lions) had scored points on 9 of their first 12 possessions (up to halftime of Monday night game).  They have just 1 sack on the season (5 sacks for their opponents).

Bears – The Bears won 20-17 on Sunday but the offense continues to look pedestrian at best.  They only scored 1 offensive TD which was the same number of TD’s their defense scored in the game.  Chicago barely had 200 yards of total offense on just 3.4 YPP.  The Chicago fanbase has been clamoring for rookie QB Fields to replace Andy Dalton and they got their wish when Dalton went down with a knee injury late in the 2nd quarter.  Fields led the Chicago offense for 7 possessions where the totaled just 75 yards on 38 snaps (2 YPP). 

Dolphins – The Miami offense has scored a grand total of 17 points in 2 games this year and somehow they have a 1-1 record.  Last week they were shutout 35-0 at home vs Buffalo and barely averaged 3.0 YPP.  Since their opening drive of the season @ New England where they went 80 yards for a TD, the Fins have had 20 possessions for a total of 113 offensive snaps and scored 1 TD.  Starting QB Tagovailoa was injured in the first quarter last week and is questionable for Sunday’s game @ Las Vegas.  Jacoby Brissett will start if he can’t go.

Raiders – The offense has looked stellar after 2 weeks.  They put up almost 500 yards and 33 points in week 1 vs a Baltimore defense that finished 6th in the NFL in total defense last year.  The Raiders following that up with 400+ yards and 26 points on a Pittsburgh defense that finished 3rd in the NFL in total defense last year.  Vegas is averaging over 6.0 YPP after facing two of the best defensive teams in the NFL!  Something to watch for this weekend is the QB situation.  Starter Derek Carr is questionable with an ankle injury and his back up Marcus Mariota is out.  That would leave 3rd stringer Nathan Peterman and his 3 career TD passes and 12 interceptions, as the starter.