ASA’s Weekly CFB Power Ratings Nov 5th


ASAwins Power Ratings – Nov 5th

The big game this week is obviously the LSU versus Alabama game which will impact the final four playoff positioning. Those two SEC powerhouses are essentially even offensively but LSU has an advantage defensively. The key for Bama hinges on whether QB Tagovailoa can go or not for this game but the Tide are keeping quiet on that until game time.  Other games to keep an eye on will be the Missouri at Georgia game and the Penn State at Minnesota contest. Penn State could obviously throw a wrench into the whole playoff scenario if they can remain unbeaten the next two weeks then beat Ohio State. The final few weeks of the college season are going to be fun to watch and bet on with several great matchups on the horizon.

1.            Ohio State: – 28.0 – The Buckeyes are 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS with an average margin of victory of 40.4PPG. They’ve covered the spread by an incredible average of +18.4PPG.

2.            Alabama: – 27.75 – The Tide’s offense is top ten nationally in total yards per game (506.9), passing yards (338.6) and point scored (48.6). The defense is top 10 in several categories but the best O they’ve faced is 33rd and 5 of their opponents rank 90th or worse in yards per game O.

3.           LSU: -25 – LSU has very similar offensive numbers to Alabama with the 4th best total O at 536YPG, 2nd in passing YPG at 377.6 and the 4th ranked scoring offense at 46.8PPG. LSU’s defensive rankings are also like Bama’s but they have faced a stiffer schedule.

4.            Clemson: -23.5 – The Tigers beat another powerhouse this past weekend in Wofford (no offense) to remain unbeaten at 9-0. The Tigers have scored 45+ points in four straight and 50+ in four of their nine games this season. Clemson’s average margin of victory is 3rd at 32.6 but again, it’s been a very soft schedule.

5.        Oklahoma: -22.25 –The Sooners are 1st in total yards at 598.4YPG and scoring at 49.2PPG in the nation but the defense is a question mark allowing just under 340YPG and 23PPG. A tough remaining schedule will tell us exactly how good this OU team is.

6.         Georgia: – 21.0 – The Bulldogs beat the Gators worse than the final score last week with +120 total yards and a time of possession edge of 11 minutes. Georgia’s rush defense was outstanding as they held Florida to 21 total rush yards. UGA ranks 8th in total D and allows just 11.4PPG.

7.         Oregon: -13.5 – The Ducks have 8 straight wins after a loss to Auburn in the opener with three quality wins their past three games against: Washington, Washington State and USC. Ducks QB Herbert has 24 TD’s to just 2 INT’s this season.

8.            Auburn: -11.75 – Auburn must win ugly as they did last week in their 20-14 win against Mississippi. The Tigers racked up over 500 yards of offense against Ole’ Miss but managed just 20-points. UA has a red zone scoring percentage of 86.84% which is 43rd in the nation.

9.            Penn State: – 11.5 – Penn State has been outgained in half their games this season and have some inflated statistics against weaker competition. The Nittany Lions have not faced a starting QB yet this season which bolsters their defensive rushing numbers as they allow just 69.9YPG (2nd).

10.         Wisconsin: -11.5 – The Badgers have a top 7 defense in: yards allowed (225.6), passing yards (139.4), rushing yards (86.2) and point allowed (11.4) but the offense has questions. Teams are stacking the box against RB Jonathan Taylor (1,009 rushing yards) and forcing the 103rd ranked passing offense to beat them.

11.         Utah: – 11.25 – The Utes are 8-1 SU this season after a big road win at Washington last week. Utah has gotten here with a defense that ranks #1 against the run, 3rd in total yards allowed per game and 7th in scoring allowing just 12.2PPG. It takes opponents 19.1 yards to score a point against them.

12.         Florida: – 11.0 – The Gators two losses have come versus a pair of top teams in LSU and Georgia. Florida has allowed just 16.7PPG which is 11th best in the country and give up 331.7YPG which ranks them 27th.

13.      Michigan: -9.75 – The Wolverines have rebounded from a slow start to win 4 of their last five games with the lone loss coming in Penn State by a TD. Michigan is anchored by a defense that is 7th in total yards allowed per game, 5th against the pass and 12th in points allowed per game.

14.      Notre Dame: -9.0 –Notre Dame survived a scare last week against Virginia Tech with a 21-20 home win. The Irish had 200 more yards in the game and 13 more first downs. ND has been favored in every game but the two they lost at Georgia and at Michigan.

15.         Texas A&M: – 9.0 – A&M got a break in their schedule last week when they faced UTSA and won 45-14. The Aggies are 6-3 SU on the year with the three losses coming against Alabama, Clemson and Auburn. Even with three losses the Aggies have an average point differential of +12.6PPG.

16.         UCF: -8.25 – The Knights offense averages 7.0 yards per play which ranks 6th in the country and .587 points per play also 6th. UCF puts up over 550 yards per game offensive which is 2nd best in the nation. The Knights will be favored in their remaining games and should finish the season 10-2.

17.         Missouri: -8.25 – Mizzou gives up just 281.4YPG which ranks them 11th nationally. They’ve been especially stout against the pass allowing just 144.5YPG (4th). The Tigers host Georgia this week who they’ve lost to four straight times but have covered each of those games.

18.         Texas: -8.0 –The Longhorns are off a bye and face a Kansas State squad this week off three straight big wins. Texas is 118th in yards allowed per game but they’ve faced four offenses that rank 35th or higher in total offense. UT’s passing offense is 14th in yards per game at 308.8.

19.         Baylor – 7.50 – The Bears beat West Virginia 17-14 last week but that final was very misleading as the Bears were had 453 yards to 219, were plus 14 first downs and had a TOP edge of 13 minutes. The Bears are 15th in total offense and 31st in total D. The schedule gets much tougher here on out so we’ll find out just how good Baylor is moving forward.

20.         Minnesota: – 7.25 – The Gophers continue to put up impressive numbers overall and have an average margin of victory of +20PPG which is 9th best in the country. Minnesota is 13th in yards allowed per game defensively and 14th in points scored per game offensively at 38.4PPG.

21.         Iowa State: -7.25 – The Cyclones throw for over 328 yards per game which is 6th best in the country. ISU’s 32nd ranked defense will be tested this week by the Sooners offense that averages over 49PPG.

22.         Cincinnati -7.25 – The Bearcats lone loss on the season came at #1 ranked Ohio State. Cincinnati plays ‘old school’ with a top 42 rushing offense and rushing defense.

23.         Memphis: -7.25 – The Tigers 8-1 SU with their only loss coming by 2-points at Temple. This past week they defeated then unbeaten SMU by 6-points. Memphis is 9th in scoring offense at 41.1PPG and rank 54th in points allowed per game at 25.8PPG.

24           SMU: -7.0 – The Mustangs outgained Memphis last week but came up short in on the scoreboard for their first loss of the season. SMU is 8th in total yards per game, 10th in passing and 7th in point scored per game.

25.         Kansas State: -6.5 – The Wildcats have a pair of respectable losses and have now won three straight games including a win over Oklahoma. KSU is 26th in passing yards allowed per game and 23rd in rushing yards gained at 219.5YPG.