The return of the PGA tour last week was a relief for many as professional sports slowly begins to return to normalcy. With the possibility of MLB and the NBA starting in the next month or so and Las Vegas re-opening recently, we’re ready to get things rolling again! With a star studded field in place, last week’s tour stop at Colonial was a great start for the PGA with Daniel Berger winning in a playoff over Collin Morikawa. This week they move to Hilton Head, SC for the Heritage Classic with many of the top players again competing. However, each of the last 4 winners here were longshots (all 40/1 or higher) so if you’re looking for a big pay day, this tourney might be your shot. Here are our predictions for the Heritage Classic which starts on Thursday – Tee times start at 6:45 AM ET time on Thursday
THIS WEEK’s PGA PICKS & REPORT ARE FREE! WE WILL BE OFFERING OUR FUTURE PGA PICKS FOR SALE. We’ll keep you posted on that. Thanks, ASA Inc.
WINNER
Justin Thomas at 17/1 to WIN (@ FanDuel)
Thomas played very well in his first 3 rounds last week before a final round 71 bumped him down to 10th. His game fits this short course (just over 7,000 yards) very well. With the 2nd smallest greens on the tour, a key stat for playing Hilton Head well is strokes gained on approach shots. Thomas currently ranks 5th in that category and has finished in the top 6 in each of the last 3 years (2017 – 2019). He also ranked 3rd in scrambling last week at Colonial which will be another key stat to watch here with the small greens. Thomas also leads the tour with 6 top 10 finishes this year and we expect him to be in contention down the stretch.
Matt Kuchar at 40/1 to WIN (@ DraftKings)
Kuchar has had some very solid success here at Hilton Head making the cut 15 straight years along with picking up a win here in 2014. Since that win Kuchar has shown he continues to be more than comfortable on this course 5th, 9th, 11th, 23rd, and 2nd over the last 5 years. He’s not very long off the tee, which won’t be needed at this course. He does, however, rank 13th in driving accuracy which will be much more important here with narrow, tree lined fairways. Kuchar missed the cut last week and should be rested and ready to take on one of his favorite courses. He’s worth a look at this price.
Branden Grace at 55/1 to WIN (@ DraftKings)
Another golfer who has had some solid success here at Harbour Town. He won here in 2016 after finishing 7th in 2015. He’s played 16 rounds on this course and finished at par or better in 13 of those. Grace played well last week @ Colonial and was right in the mix after 3 straight rounds of 66 to open the tourney. He struggled on Sunday and dropped to 19th but had a solid tournament and was in contention heading into the final round. At 55/1 Grace is definitely worth a small wager.
Jim Furyk at 150/1 to WIN (@ FanDuel)
Looking for one huge longshot to take a chance with? We think Furyk is that player. Nobody on the tour has had more success here than Furyk. He has 2 wins @ Hilton Head and he is the all time leading money winner in this tournament. He has trouble keeping up with the big hitters on long courses, but he won’t have that problem here. A short course that relies on hitting fairways and greens fits Furyk’s game perfectly. He’s #1 on the tour this year in driving accuracy and greens in regulation. He hasn’t won on the tour since 2015 but don’t be shocked if this 50 year old is right there in the final round.
FINISHING POSITION
Jim Furyk at +500 to finish in the Top 20 (@ DraftKings)
See analysis on Furyk above. We may also take a shot with him at +1200 to finish inside the top 10.
Webb Simpson at +350 to finish in the top 10 (@ DraftKings)
Simpson entered last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge with the 4th lowest odds in the entire tourney behind only McIlroy, Rahm, and Thomas. He played poorly in round 1 and despite bouncing back with a 69 in round 2, he missed the cut. We feel because of that performance, we’re getting decent odds on Simpson to finish in the top 10 here. He already has 4 top 10’s this year in 6 events including a win @ Phoenix. He’s very solid in driving accuracy (32nd) and greens in regulation (11th) which will help him here. 9 of his 12 rounds here at Harbour Town have been in the 60’s and we think a top 10 finish is likely this year.
Tyrrell Hatton at +600 to finish in the top 10 (@ FanDuel)
Hatton took last week off and is being overlooked here in our opinion. Hatton actually won his most recent tournament, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, in early March and has finished 6th, 14th, 6th and 1st in his last 4 tourneys. He’s a solid scrambler which is important here and he ranks 18th on the PGA tour in scoring average. He throws up a lot of birdies (4th on the tour) and ranks in the top 20 in both FedEx and World Golf Rankings. At 6/1 to make the top 10, we’re getting solid value with this under the radar player.
MATCH UPS
Jason Day -110 over Sergio Garcia (@ DraftKings)
Both of these players were at the top of their games a few years ago and both are moving on a downward trend. At least Day has shown some signs of success as of late. He’s played in 4 events missing the cut in 2 but finishing 16th and 22nd in the other 2. Garcia has quietly been playing quite poorly for a year now. Since the middle of last May his highest finish in any event is 33rd. Garcia’s last 12 tournaments dating back to May 2019 look like this – Cut, Cut, 52nd, 67th, 40th, Cut, 60th, 33rd, 53rd, 37th, 37th, Cut. No top 30’s in over a year. Day has 6 top 30’s during that same stretch. Garcia hasn’t played in this tourney since 2010 and he missed the cut that year. Neither is at the top of their game anymore but Day should do enough to top the struggling Garcia here.
