ASA’s NFL Week #1 opening lines and insights

The opening numbers have been posted on the NFL games scheduled for Week #1 and we could not be more excited about the prospect of getting back to football and some semblance of normalcy. We jotted down some notes on the match ups and have already started the process of breaking down the games. Without giving anything away we absolutely love a few of these situations and the season cannot get here fast enough!

09/10 8:20 PM

451 Houston

452 Kansas City -10 O/U 56½: Same line on this game as the Divisional game last year when KC won 51-31 after Houston jumped out to a 21-0 lead. Will the Texans miss departed WR Hopkins who had 9 receptions for 118 yards in that game? Will the Chiefs suffer a Game 1, Super Bowl hangover? Whatever happens here, “thank you” to the NFL schedule makers for giving us this game as the opener.

09/13 1:00 PM

453 Miami

454 New England -5 ½ O/U 43½: We will find out this season if Bill Belicheck and the Patriots can win without Tom Brady in the clubhouse. Both teams have plenty of questions surround the quarterback position with the Pats set to start Jarrett Stidham while the Dolphins must choose from 4 QB’s in Fitzpatrick, Rosen, Rudock and Tagovailoa. These two AFC East teams have split the last 6 meetings and that was with Tom Brady under center for the Pats. The home team has covered 13 of the last sixteen meetings.

09/13 1:00 PM

455 Cleveland

456 Baltimore -8 ½ O/U 48½: Baltimore has been favored by -6 ½ or more points in 6 of the last seven meetings covering four. The Dog is 15-5-1 ATS the last 21 meetings. Can Cleveland live up to their lofty expectations this season? After seeing Lamar Jackson for a full season will defensive coordinators figure out a way to stop him this year. This first game might give us a great idea of what to expect this season from both teams.

09/13 1:00 PM

457 N.Y. Jets

458 Buffalo -5 ½ O/U 40: This could be a pivotal game to start the season for these two teams if either wants to challenge the Patriots for the AFC East crown. The Pats are favored to win the Division (have won it 17 of the last 20 years) but only slightly over Buffalo. The Jets have extremely high hopes for Sam Darnold at QB, but the supporting cast has some question marks. The pooch is 8-2 ATS the last ten in this series.

09/13 1:00 PM

461 Seattle -1 48 ½

462 Atlanta: A poor start last year (1-7 SU) doomed the Falcons season but there should be optimism as they won 6 of their last eight a year ago, and outgained 7 of their last nine opponents. Of all the teams that had double-digit wins a year ago, only Houston had a worse average margin of victory than Seattle at +0.6PPG.  

09/13 1:00 PM

463 Philadelphia -5 ½ O/U 45 ½

464 Washington: The Redskins have major QB concerns and are coming off a season where their average loss margin was -10.6PPG, second worst number in the NFL. Philly was up and down last season with their longest winning streak coming to end the regular season with 4 straight wins before losing to Seattle in the playoffs. Surprisingly, the winner in the last six meetings between these two NFC East rivals has done so by an average of 13PPG.

09/13 1:00 PM

465 Chicago

466 Detroit -1 ½ O/U 44: The Lions were 4-4 SU with QB Stafford under center last year then lost every game after his injury. One of the worst statistical defenses in the NFL did not help their cause either. The Bears have an open QB competition with Trubisky and Foles and one of them needs to step up and improve an offense that was 29th in the NFL in yards gained a year ago. The Bears defense was 4th in points allowed per game last year at 18.6PPG.

09/13 1:00 PM

467 Indianapolis – 7 O/U 46

468 Jacksonville: Is the aging Phillip Rivers an upgrade at QB for the Colts? The oddsmakers think so as Indy is favored by 2-more points here than they were a year ago. Jags QB Garner Minshew put up solid numbers a year ago in 14 games (6-8 SU) with 21 TD’s to 6 INT’s and an average of 233.6 passing yards per game. Only one of the Jags last six wins came against a team with a winning record though. Last season the Jags beat the Colts twice by 18 and 20-points respectively.

09/13 1:00 PM

469 Green Bay

470 Minnesota -3 ½ O/U 46 ½: Drama in Green Bay with the drafting of a QB Jordan Love of Utah State in the first round instead of a WR and immediate help for Aaron Rodgers. The Packers were 9-1 SU in one score games a year ago and fortunate to finish 14-4 SU. The Vikings were 3rd in takeaways last year, had a top ten defense and the 6th best rushing O in the NFL but finished a disappointing 10-6 in the regular season. The average margin of victory in the last ten meetings of this rivalry is +8.75PPG.

09/13 4:05 PM

471 L.A. Chargers -3 ½ O/U 45 ½

472 Cincinnati: The Bengals have high hopes after drafting Heisman winning QB Joe Burrows and standout WR Tee Higgins, but it will take time for their young prospects to adjust to the NFL. The Chargers have a new QB also as 13-year starter Philip Rivers has moved on to Indianapolis which leaves the offensive reins to Tyrod Taylor. In terms of efficiency ratings these two teams were similar defensively, but the Chargers were dramatically better offensively.

09/13 4:25 PM

473 Arizona

474 San Francisco -7 ½ O/U 45 ½: The Niners were double-digit favorites over the Cardinals last year and won by 3 in Arizona and 10 at home but the Cards have cashed 4 of the last five meetings. San Francisco returns virtually intact this season after losing in the Super Bowl and should be a contender in the NFC once again. Arizona added WR DeAndre Hopkins which should improve an offense that averaged 5.5 yards per play (17th) last season and make life much easier for 2nd year QB Kyler Murray.  

09/13 4:25 PM

475 Tampa Bay

476 New Orleans -4 ½ O/U 49 ½: We are not sure you have heard (sarcasm) or not but the Bucs have a new QB named Tom Brady and another former Pat in TE Rob Gronkowski. The Bucs had #1 passing offense in the NFL in terms of passing yards per game at 302.8PYPG but former QB Winston threw 30 INT’s to 33 TD’s. Brady has thrown 29 total interceptions in the last four seasons combined. The Saints were without QB Brees for a portion of the season a year ago and still finished the season with the 4th best offensive efficiency rating and averaged over 28PPG. The favorite is 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings.

09/13 8:20 PM

477 Dallas -2 ½ O/U 50 ½

478 L.A. Rams: The big question here is whether Cowboy QB Dak Prescott will be in camp in time to be the starter in the season opener or will newly acquired backup Andy Dalton be under center? Will the Cowboys need time to adjust to new head coach Mike McCarthy’s system? The Rams have questions too as they went from having the 2nd most efficient offense in 2018 to the 17th ranked OEFF in 2019. If L.A. does not win this home opener against Dallas, they could start 0-3 with two tough road dates on the East coast in Philly and Buffalo the next two weeks.

09/14 7:15 PM

479 Pittsburgh -3 O/U 48

480 N.Y. Giants: The Steelers missed QB Ben Roethlisberger immensely last season and his return will make Pittsburgh a contender in the AFC again this year considering they play the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL. The Giants had a negative point differential of -6.9PPG last year (28th) which partly explains why they are 1-10 ATS their last eleven as a home dog. A lot of the Giants success this season is riding on 2nd year QB Daniel Jones who threw 24 TD’s last year but also 12 INT’s and finished with a QBR of 53.6.

09/14 10:10 PM

481 Tennessee

482 Denver -2 ½ O/U 42 ½: I am willing to bet some of you looked at this line and wondered why a 7-9 SU Broncos team was favored over a Titans team that lost to KC in the AFC Championship game a year ago. Tennessee relies heavily on RB Derrick Henry and a ground game that averaged 143 yards per game last year, 3rd best in the NFL. The Broncos were average in stopping the run with the 16th ranked rush defense allowing 111YPG. Denver was favored by 1-point at home a year ago against the Titans and won 16-0. Tennessee closed the season last year 5-1 ATS on the road.

The NFL is coming back soon and so is ASA! Stay tuned for great offers and insights on all the NFL happenings here at