09/13 1:00 PM
Miami @ New England -7 O/U 43½ – This line opened -5.5 in the summer and jumped to -7 after the Pats signed QB Cam Newton. We will find out this season if Bill Belichick and the Patriots can win without Tom Brady in the clubhouse. Both teams have plenty of questions surround the quarterback position with the Pats set to start Cam Newton with potential starter Jarrett Stidham dealing with a leg injury. The Dolphins will most likely start Ryan Fitzpatrick who is familiar with new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey who has worked with him in the past. Tua Tagovailoa has improved in camp but we don’t see him starting in game 1. Miami upset New England last year in the season finale knocking the Pats out of a first round bye in the playoffs. The Fins had a horrendous start last year (0-7 start) but rebounded to win 5 of their last 9 games. The home team has covered 13 of the last 16 meetings.
09/13 1:00 PM
Cleveland @ Baltimore Baltimore -8 ½ O/U 48½ – Baltimore has been favored by -6 ½ or more points in 6 of the last seven meetings covering four. The Dog is 15-5-1 ATS the last 21 meetings. Can Cleveland live up to their lofty expectations this season? After seeing Lamar Jackson for a full season will defensive coordinators figure out a way to stop him this year. This first game might give us a great idea of what to expect this season from both teams. – The Ravens led the NFL with 14 wins and a point differential of +249 last year which was 55 points MORE than the next best point differential (New England). However, they disappointed in the playoffs losing 28-12 at home to Tennessee as 10 point favorites. The Browns start ANOTHER new era with Kevin Stefanski taking over as head coach after leading Minnesota’s offense the last few years. It’s Cleveland’s EIGHTH head coach since 2010!
09/13 1:00 PM
N.Y. Jets @ Buffalo -5 ½ O/U 40 – The Pats are the slight favorite to win the Division (have won it 17 of the last 20 years) with Buffalo on their heels. The Jets have extremely high hopes for Sam Darnold at QB, but the supporting cast has some question marks. Buffalo brings back 95% of their offensive production from last year but need to see improvement from QB Josh Allen as 27% of his throws were uncatchable last year – highest in the NFL. The defense was very strong but played 2nd easiest set of offenses in the NFL so their numbers this year may not be as impressive. After losing 7 of their first 8 last year, the Jets rebounded to win 6 of their final 8 games to finish with a 7-9 record. Included in that was a season finale win @ Buffalo 13-6, however the Bills sat some regulars (QB Allen only played a few series) as they were already locked into their playoff position. NY actually had a winning record (7-6) when QB Sam Darnold was able to play (0-3 without him last year). The dog has covered 8 of the last 10 in this series.
9/13 1:00 PM
Las Vegas -1.5 O/U 47 @ Carolina – The Raiders open their initial year in Las Vegas after spending every year since their founding in 1960 in either Oakland or Los Angeles. They finished last year with a 7-9 record, however their point differential of -106 was worse than 5 teams that finished with 6 wins or fewer. All 7 of their wins last year were by 8 points or fewer (one score games) and their record in games decided by one score or less was 7-3. The Raiders have been favored on the road just once in each of the last 2 seasons and they were blown out in both of those games (@ SF & @ NYJ). Carolina starts a new regime with head coach Matt Rhule (formerly @ Baylor) taking over this season. His QB will be Teddy Bridgewater who was 5-0 as a starter last year for New Orleans when subbing for the injured Drew Brees. His new coordinators on both sides of the ball (Joe Brady & Phil Snow) have never been in charge of an offense or defense in the NFL.
09/13 1:00 PM
Seattle -1 O/U 49 @ Atlanta – A poor start last year (1-7 SU) doomed the Falcons season but there should be optimism as they won 6 of their last 8 a year ago, and outgained 7 of their last 9 opponents. Atlanta’s point differential last year was -18 which was in line with a .500 or slightly worse type team. Seattle, on the other hand, had a point differential of just +7 which means they were quite fortunate to win 11 games. In fact, despite having the 4th best record in the NFC, the Seahawks had only the 9th best point differential. Seattle actually had a negative -0.1 yards per play differential as well (Atlanta was -0.3). Of Seattle’s 11 wins, 10 of them came by a single score margin (8 points or less). These two met last year in Seattle and the Hawks won 27-20 as 7.5 point favorites. Atlanta dominated the stats, however with 12 more first downs while gaining 510 yards to 322 for Seattle.
09/13 1:00 PM
Philadelphia -5 ½ O/U 45 ½ @ Washington – The Redskins have major QB concerns and are coming off a season where their average loss margin was -10.6PPG, second worst number in the NFL. It looks like Dwayne Haskins will get the nod under center but he was shaky at best last year with 58% completion rate, 7 TD pass, and 7 interceptions. Washington won only 3 games and finished dead last in the NFL averaging only 16.6 PPG. They were held under 20 points in 11 of their 16 games. Philly was up and down but won their final 4 games of the season to win the NFC East at 9-7 before losing to Seattle in the playoffs. Starting QB Carson Wentz left that playoff game with a head injury after attempting just 4 passes. Last year’s meetings were both high scoring (Eagles won both) with the 2 teams combining for 64 & 59 points. This series hasn’t had many close games as of late with the winning margin being at least 10 points in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
09/13 1:00 PM
Chicago @ Detroit -1 ½ O/U 44 – The Lions were 4-4 SU with QB Stafford under center last year then lost every game after his injury. One of the worst statistical defenses in the NFL did not help their cause either as they allowed over 400 total YPG and ranked only ahead of Arizona in that category. Stafford is back and healthy and the defense picked up a number of key free agents including LB Collins who was the Patriots leading tackler last year. The Bears have an open QB competition with Trubisky and Foles and one of them needs to step up and improve an offense that was 29th in the NFL in yards gained a year ago. The offense might be without starting RB Montgomery (900 yards last year) as has a leg injury and may not play in this game. The Bears defense was 4th in points allowed per game last year at 18.6PPG and 6th in YPP allowed at 5.1. The schedule for Chicago is fairly easy early on as they do not face a playoff team from last season until week 8. The Lions have gone OVER the total in 12 of their last 13 season openers but last year’s meetings with Chicago were both fairly low scoring with the Bears winning 24-20 & 20-13. Chicago was 1-7 ATS away from home last year.
09/13 1:00 PM
Indianapolis – 7 O/U 45 @ Jacksonville – Is the aging Phillip Rivers an upgrade at QB for the Colts? The oddsmakers think so as Indy is favored by 2-more points here than they were a year ago. Rivers threw 20 interceptions last year as the Chargers starter and his QB rating was his 2nd lowest mark since the 2007 season. Jags QB Garner Minshew put up solid numbers a year ago in 14 games (6-8 SU) with 21 TD’s to 6 INT’s and an average of 233.6 passing yards per game but his total QBR rating was 26th in the league. Will defenses have a better feel for Minshew now that they have a full year a film on him? Only one of the Jags last six wins came against a team with a winning record. These two split last year with each winning big at home by 20 & 18 points. The Colts have only covered ONE season opener in the last 12 years! The host has won 11 of the last 13 meetings SU in this AFC South rivalry.
09/13 1:00 PM
Green Bay @ Minnesota -3 ½ O/U 46 ½ – Drama in Green Bay with the drafting of a QB Jordan Love of Utah State in the first round instead of a WR and immediate help for Aaron Rodgers. On top of that, their top offensive FA signing, WR Devin Funchess, has decided to sit out this year due to Covid concerns. The Packers were 9-1 SU in one score games a year ago and fortunate to finish 14-4 SU (playoffs included). They were actually outgained on the season averaging 5.5 YPP while allowing 5.7 YPP (-0.2 YPP differential). The Vikings were 3rd in takeaways last year, had a top ten defense and the 6th best rushing O in the NFL but finished a disappointing 10-6 in the regular season. The Vikings will have to make some adjustments after losing OC Kevin Stefanski (now HC of Browns), top WR Diggs (to Buffalo) and all 3 of their starting corners on defense. The average margin of victory in the last ten meetings of this rivalry is +8.75PPG and the UNDER has cashed 6 straight when the game is in Minnesota. The Vikes are a very good 37-16-1 ATS overall their last 54 home games.
09/13 4:05 PM
L.A. Chargers -3 O/U 44 @ Cincinnati – The Bengals have high hopes after drafting Heisman winning QB Joe Burrows and standout WR Tee Higgins, but it will take time for their young prospects to adjust to the NFL. The Chargers have a new QB also as 13-year starter Philip Rivers has moved on to Indianapolis which leaves the offensive reins to Tyrod Taylor. In terms of efficiency ratings these two teams were similar defensively, but the Chargers were dramatically better offensively. The Bolts were just 5-11 last year but their key stats were more in line with a .500 type team. Their point differential was -8 which was actually the 7th best in the AFC yet their record was just 14th best. The Bengals struggled offensively last year averaging only 17 PPG and 4.9 YPP. They will most likely have problems on that side of the ball again with a very young offensive roster. The defense picked up a number of key FA’s that should step right in as starters as they try to improve on their 6.1 YPP allowed (31st in the NFL). The Bengals have covered just 3 of their last 14 home games.
09/13 4:25 PM
Arizona @ San Francisco -7 ½ O/U 45 ½ – The Niners were double-digit favorites over the Cardinals last year and won by 3 in Arizona and 10 at home. Believe it or not, in the Niners 10 point home win over the Cards, San Fran actually trailed with under 35 seconds remaining in the game. The 49ers had the much better overall yardage stats in the two games combined but also ran 23 more offensive snaps so the YPP numbers were much closer. Arizona QB Murray played solid in his two match ups vs San Francisco completing 72% of his pass attempts, with 4 TD’s, 0 interceptions, and over 100 yards rushing in the two games combined. Murray also added one of the top WR’s in the league to his arsenal with Hopkins coming over from Houston. San Francisco returns most of their key players this season after losing in the Super Bowl and should be a contender in the NFC once again. They finished in the top 4 in the NFL in both YPP allowed and YPP gained.
09/13 4:25 PM
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans -3 ½ O/U 49 ½ – We are not sure you have heard (sarcasm) or not but the Bucs have a new QB named Tom Brady and another former Pat in TE Rob Gronkowski. The Bucs had #1 passing offense in the NFL in terms of passing yards per game at 302.8PYPG but former QB Winston threw 30 INT’s to 33 TD’s. Brady has thrown 29 total interceptions in the last four seasons combined. Brady takes over an offense that had two 1,000 yard WR’s last year (Godwin & Evans). As of right now, the oddsmakers have Tampa favored in 13 of their 16 games this year when the full season lines were released earlier this summer. The Saints were without QB Brees for a portion of the season a year ago and still finished the season with the 4th best offensive efficiency rating and averaged over 28PPG. The Saints won both meetings last year by 7 & 17 points outgaining the Bucs 785 to 586 combined in the 2 games. The favorite is 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings.
09/13 8:20 PM
Dallas -2 ½ O/U 49 ½ @ L.A. Rams – The Cowboys start a new regime and haven’t had the normal amount of practice time to adjust to Mike McCarthy’s new system which could be an issue early in the year. Dallas finished a disappointing 8-8 last year although their stats were off the charts as they led the NFL in offensive YPP (6.5) and in YPP differential (+1.3). The problem with the Cowboys was they beat the teams they were supposed to (Washington, NY Giants, etc…) but they were only 1-6 SU vs playoff teams. The Rams have questions too as they went from having the 2nd most efficient offense in 2018 to the 17th ranked OEFF in 2019. They made the Super Bowl following the 2018 season but failed the make the playoffs last year. This home opener will be held in LA’s brand new SoFi Stadium, and if the Rams do now win this game, they could start 0-3 with two tough road dates on the East coast in Philly and Buffalo the next two weeks. These two met near the end of last season in Dallas and the Cowboys crushed the Rams 44-21 outgaining them 475 to 289. The Rams are 12-3-1 ATS their last 16 games vs NFC opponents but just 0-7-1 ATS their last 8 as a home underdog.
09/14 7:15 PM
Pittsburgh -3 O/U 48 @ N.Y. Giants – The Steelers missed QB Ben Roethlisberger immensely last season and his return will make Pittsburgh a contender in the AFC again this year considering they play the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL. The Steelers rotating QB’s last year (Rudolph & Hodges) ranked 30th in yards per pass attempt and 31st in team passer rating. The defense was outstanding allowing 19 PPG and just 4.7 YPP so if their passing improves, Pitt will be back in the mix. The Giants had a negative point differential of -6.9PPG last year (28th) which partly explains why they are 1-10 ATS their last eleven as a home dog. A lot of the Giants success this season is riding on 2nd year QB Daniel Jones who threw 24 TD’s last year but also 12 INT’s and finished with a QBR of 53.6 (18th among starting QB’s). They’ll be dealing with an entirely new coaching staff as well with Joe Judge coming in as head coach after dealing with New England’s special teams and WR’s last season. The new offensive coordinator will be Jason Garrett who remains in the division after getting fired as the Cowboys head coach.
09/14 10:10 PM
Tennessee @ Denver -2 ½ O/U 42 ½ – We are willing to bet some of you looked at this line and wondered why a 7-9 SU Broncos team was favored over a Titans team that lost to KC in the AFC Championship game a year ago. Tennessee relies heavily on RB Derrick Henry and a ground game that averaged 143 yards per game last year, 3rd best in the NFL. QB Ryan Tannehill had a career year last season with a career high in completion percentage (70%), QB Rating, and a career low in interceptions throw (6). Can he duplicate that or does he move back toward the mean? The Broncos were average in stopping the run with the 16th ranked rush defense allowing 111YPG which could be a problem in this game. The Broncos had a top half of the league defense last year but the offense struggled averaging only 17.6 PPG. QB Drew Lock will get his first shot as a full season starter and he adds RB Melvin Gordon in the backfield. Denver was favored by 1-point at home a year ago against the Titans and won 16-0. Tennessee closed the season last year 5-1 ATS on the road. Denver has been a slow starter with just 1-6-1 ATS record their last 2 Septembers.
