AFC EAST TOTAL WIN BEST BET – Under 9.5 Miami Dolphins
There is value on the under in our opinion after the Fins win total opened 9 and has risen to 9.5. There is hope that QB Tagovailoa will make a big jump this year but we’re not so sure. He was flat out poor last season. Tua ranked near the bottom of the NFL in completion percentage and yards per pass attempts as he rarely went downfield with the ball. While they did improve their WR corps, Tua will be operating behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The defense had great numbers but was overrated and should regress this season. They had the most takeaways in the NFL last season plus they led the league allowing only 31% conversion rate on 3rd down after finishing 24th & 28th in that category the previous 2 seasons. The Miami defense finished 24th in YPP allowed and 27th in yards per pass attempt allowed which tells us they benefited greatly from their TO margin and 3rd down efficiency. The Fins won 10 games last season but beat only 1 team that ended the year with a winning record. That was the Rams and Miami was extremely fortunate in that win as they were outgained 471 to 145 in that game. While the AFC East is not a great division with the exception of Buffalo, we have Miami favored in just 8 games this year entering the season. It will be very tough for this team to get to 10+ wins in our opinion.
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