ASA’s BIG TEN REPORT – Sept 19th

Big Ten Preview for Week #3 (Sept 19th) – Board Games Only…

UNLV @ MICHIGAN – OPENING LINE – No line – No opener on this game as UNLV’s starting QB Decker is questionable with a hamstring injury. Decker was injured late in the 1st quarter of last week’s game vs UCLA and didn’t play the final 3 quarters. Once he went out, the Rebels went on to pass for only 4 yards over the final 3 quarters in their 37-3 loss to the Bruins as his back up Kurt Palandech is more of a runner than a drop back passer. Last week was a disappointment for UNLV as they looked for some progress after a solid week 1 performance @ Northern Illinois where despite the 38-30 loss, the Rebs had more first downs and were only -52 yards for the game. If Decker can’t play UNLV will probably be running the ball a lot as Palandech is not a great passer and they face a Michigan team that allowed Oregon St to pass for only 79 yards last week on 20 attempts. UNLV is coached by first year head man Tony Sanchez who had been a high school coach for the previous 16 years, including the last 6 at Nevada power Bishop Gorman H.S. in Las Vegas. He led Bishop Gorman to an 85-5 record and won the state title all 6 years he was there. Michigan rolled to a 35-7 win and dominated the stats as well rolling up 405 yards while limiting the Beavers to only 138. OSU averaged a terrible 2.6 yards per play in that game. Michigan QB Jake Rudock threw another interception last Saturday giving him 4 in his first 2 starts for Michigan. That after throwing just 5 all last season as the Iowa starter. The Wolverines are fairly healthy entering this game with only starting CB Lewis and FB Kerridge questionable. Michigan plays BYU next some coming off their home opener last week, this could be a tough spot to play at their emotional & physical peak. However, if UNLV QB Decker can’t play, we don’t see them doing much of anything offensively. Last time UNLV beat a Big Ten team was in 2003 vs Wisconsin. They are 0-6 SU since then.

KENT STATE @ MINNESOTA – OPENING LINE MINNESOTA (-23) – The Gophs come home after a big OT win @ Colorado State last week. Minnesota looked a little out of sorts in that game which was to be expected after playing TCU to the wire at home in their first game of the season. Minny did dominate the stats with 9 more first downs and +100 total yards. However they ran 86 plays to pick up 413 yards which only equates to 4.8 yards per play. Minnesota started the game in an offensive rut not able to get a first down on their first 6 drives. After that they went up-tempo with their “new” no-huddle offense and things improved drastically. Head coach Jerry Kill said they may go with the no-huddle more often this week. The Gophers are banged up on the offensive line coming out of that game. Starting guard Jon Christenson will be out a month or so with a knee injury. Two other starting offensive linemen (Lauer & Campion) were held out of practice early in the week for injuries and their status is up in the air. Also starting WR KJ Maye who has 10 receptions for 127 yards was in a “green” non-contact jersey for much of this week in practice (chest injury). He hopes to be ready by Saturday. Kent has already played one Big Ten team getting destroyed 52-3 @ Illinois. The Illini only had 100 more total yards in that game but Kent was done in by 4 turnovers which led to Illinois TD drives of just 5, 6, and 7 yards! On the bright side for Kent, at least they scored. In their previous 3 games vs Big Ten teams the Flashes were outscored 124-0! Since 2005, Kent has faced 6 Big Ten teams and been outscored 268-6!

TROY @ WISCONSIN – OPENING LINE WISCONSIN (-35) – Last week we had a big line move on the Miami OH – Wisconsin game as they Badgers opened -34 and were bet all the way down to -31. The move was dead wrong as the Badgers had the spread covered at halftime (37-0) and went on to win 58-0. Starting RB Corey Clement sat out with a pulled groin. He hasn’t been practicing this week as of this writing (Tuesday) and unless he’s 100% ready to roll, they won’t play him. Our word is it is very, very doubtful he will play this Saturday. Clement’s back up, Dare Ogunbowale (a former walk on), rolled up 112 yards on just 16 carries. The Badger offensive line is not anywhere near the level they are used to at Wisconsin. They actually had trouble getting a big push early on vs the Miami OH defensive line which is concerning. They improved as the game went on but with 3 new starters and a number of injuries up front, this offense will not be able to just pound good teams as they have become accustomed to doing. QB Joel Stave has made huge improvements under new head coach and great offensive mind Paul Chryst. After just 2 games he’s thrown for 464 yards (on pace for 2,800) with 5 TD’s (he had just 9 last year) and a completion percentage of 65% (up from 53% last year). He’s already attempted 69 passes in 2 games and Wisconsin is no longer a “non-threat” to throw the ball. However, they may not have to throw the ball much this Saturday against a Troy team that has been gashed for 251 yards rushing (NC State) and 263 on the ground (Charleston Southern) the last 2 weeks. The Trojans were whipped 49-21 in week 1 by NC State & despite beating Charleston Southern 44-16 last week, the yardage was dead even at 374 apiece.

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ILLINOIS @ NORTH CAROLINA – OPENING LINE NORTH CAROLINA (-9) – We had a feeling the Illini might be affected in a positive way by the Tim Beckman firing and it looks like we might be correct. New head coach & offensive coordinator Bill Cubit was very well respected by the players and they seem to love playing for him. He’s much more “positive” than Beckman was and with the losing culture and “fragile psyche” of the Illini players (because of losing), it just wasn’t a good fit. Illinois has had two easy wins vs Kent and Western Illinois outscoring the two 96-3. We’ll find out how far the Illini have advanced this week against a decent North Carolina team. The Heels are 1-1 after losing to South Carolina the first week and then crushing NC A&T last Saturday. In their loss to the Gamecocks, UNC actually dominated the stat book racking up 440 yards on 7 yards per play (just 5.3 YPP for South Carolina). The problem was the Heels turned it over 3 times to 0 for SC. Not only that, two of their turnovers were interceptions in the endzone making the close loss (17-13) a tough one in a game they should have won. Can the Illini turn the corner this year? Some say they may have done so last year with a 6-6 regular season record and a bowl appearance. However, the fact is, they lost all 7 games last year by double digits and 5 of their 6 wins required 4th quarter come from behind rallies. Illinois has been a horrendous road team winning only 3 of their last 21 SU away from home! They are just 3-12 ATS their last 15 away and as a road dog for a TD or more, they are just 3-10 ATS.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ OHIO STATE – OPENING LINE OHIO STATE (–33.5) – The Bucks were favored by 41 points last week at home vs Hawaii and fell just short winning 38-0. OSU was lethargic to start the game taking just a 14-0 lead into halftime. That was not a huge surprise as they played their massively hyped season opener @ Virginia Tech on Monday and then had a short week to get ready for a “ho-hum” opponent. The Hawaii defense was very good holding the Buckeyes to 363 yards on 83 plays for just 4.3 YPP. However the Rainbows could only muster 2.7 YPP for the game and were held under 90 yards both rushing and passing. NIU struggled in week 1 getting by UNLV 38-30 as a 23-point favorite. The Huskies only outgained the Rebels by 53 yards in that game. Last week against an overmatched Murray State team NIU rolled 57-26 on 636 total yards. The look to be very solid again offensively and that’s the norm for this team. They have now averaged more than 31 PPG and more than 440 YPG in each of the last 5 seasons. The Huskies have become the top program in the MAC making it to 5 straight conference title games, winning 3 of them. This NIU team has won 37 of their last 40 games (excluding bowls) and they won’t be intimidated in this venue. They’ve actually won their last 3 contests vs Big Ten teams @ Northwestern last year & @ Purdue and @ Iowa the year before. The Huskies have not been an underdog of this magnitude since the 1998 season. OSU is obviously has vastly superior talent, however they better come to play on Saturday if they expect to cover this huge number. After a lack luster effort last week, we’re guessing Urban Meyer has this team ready to play on Saturday.

NORTHWESTERN @ DUKE – OPENING LINE DUKE (-3) – Don’t sleep on this NW defense which might just be one of the top few stop units in the Big Ten. They were solid on that side of the ball last year but simply ran out of gas down the stretch. They held 5 of their first 6 opponents last year to 24 points or less including Wisconsin & Minnesota. They held 4 of their Big Ten opponents to 14 points or fewer last year. The Cats bring back 8 starters on that side of the ball including their entire D Line. They have yet to give up a TD this year. They opened the year by upsetting Stanford 16-6 limiting the Cardinal to just 240 yards for the game on only 3.8 YPP. Last week they shutout Eastern Illinois 41-0 and gave up only 138 total yards. EIU only moved the ball inside the NW 40 yard line twice and never got inside the 30. Duke has yet to be tested rolling over 2 weak opponents. They topped Tulane 37-7 to open the season and followed that up with a 55-0 win over NC Central. NCCU is an FCS team and Tulane has lost their two games 37-7 and 65-10. Because of their cupcake schedule so far, NW coach Pat Fitzgerald said the tape hasn’t helped them much as Duke has been fairly vanilla on offense. Expect a number of new wrinkles and formations this weekend as Devil HC David Cutcliffe is a fantastic offensive mind. One might expect these two top academic schools to simply keep quiet and play the game however that hasn’t been the case. Northwestern DL Ifeadi Odenigbo spoke early this week of pitching a shutout when they travel to Duke this Saturday. A few Devil players have taken offense to that and taken their thought to the twitter verse. It should make for an interesting game on Sunday.

VIRGINIA TECH @ PURDUE – OPENING LINE VA TECH (-5.5) – The Hokies take on their 2nd Big Ten opponent this season when they travel to Purdue on Saturday. After losing in the much hyped home opener vs #1 Ohio State, Va Tech had a “breather” last week hosting Furman. They took care of business rolling to a 42-3 win that included 299 rushing yards on 7.3 YPC. Not much can be taken from the game as Furman is a weak FCS opponent that has only 1 win in their last 12 games. Head coach Frank Beamer may have created a bit of a QB controversy. His starter, Michael Brewer, was injured in the Ohio State game and will be out for at least a month and probably longer. His replacement Brenden Motley did little to nothing against Ohio State completing just 44% of his passes for 36 yards in one half of work. Motley got the start vs Furman but Beamer decided to pull the redshirt off highly touted true frosh Dwayne Lawson on just the 3rd play of the game. Motley went onto have a solid game but Lawson did as well so expect to see both again on Saturday. We felt Purdue would be much improved this year and it looks like we were on target. The Boilers had Marshall beat on the road in week 1, but 2 pick 6’s by QB Appleby (4 interceptions thrown in the game) cost them the game. Last week they dominated Indiana State in a game they could have been flat in after their tough loss the Sunday before. They return QB Appleby and all 5 starting offensive lineman as their offense is much improved putting up 34.5 PPG so far after averaging just 23 PPG a year ago. VT has been a very solid road team winning 8 of their last 11 games away from home. Purdue on the other hand has only won 5 of their last 20 home games. The Boilers are improved and VT will be playing with unproven QB’s in their first ever road action. An upset?

NEBRASKA @ MIAMI FL – OPENING LINE MIAMI FL (-3.5) – These two met last year in Lincoln and the Huskers won 41-31 as an 8-point favorite. The total yardage was very close (Nebraska was +21 total yards) with the Huskers controlling the ground game (343 to 76) while the Canes took to the air (359 to 113). Nebraska led by 17 late and Miami came up with a TD with just 18 seconds remaining in the game to cut the final margin to 10. The Canes come in at 2-0 beating Bethune Cookman & Florida Atlantic. There most recent game last Friday night @ FAU was much closer than the final score of 44-20 would indicate. The game was tied at 20 apiece in the 3rd quarter. FAU lost their starting QB Jaquez Johnson early in the first quarter and his replacement, Jason Driskel threw 2 ints in his first collegiate action. The Owls had 5 turnovers in all and the Canes didn’t turn the ball over once. The Huskers bounced back after their heartbreaking hail-mary loss to BYU and whipped South Alabama last week. The Nebraska defense has been shaky vs the pass this year allowing 379 & 313 yards through the air the first 2 games. Big plays have been a big problem as the Huskers have already allowed pass plays of 55, 53, 42, 38, 37, 33, 24, and 21 yards this year. Last year when they faced Miami, then freshman QB Brad Kaaya threw for 359 yards and completed 13 passes of 15 yards or more. Kaaya is a year older and much better than he was at the point when they played Nebraska last year so the Husker defensive coaches have been stressing and stopping big plays has been brought up often at practice this week. The Canes are off to a good start, however this is a team that has won more than 7 games only once since 2009. Since 2010, they have just a 36-28 overall record. Miami will be without starting LB Darrion Owens who was lost for the season last week. However, starting WR’s Berrios will return and Coley might be back after both missed last week.

WESTERN KENTUCKY @ INDIANA – OPENING LINE INDIANA (-2.5) – While IU’s defense was better last week than in their first week debacle, they weren’t great. FIU put up over 400 yards in the 36-22 Indiana win. However, the game was closer than the final score and one key play really turned the tide. Down 29-22 driving for the tying score with under 4:00 remaining the game, FIU QB Alex McGough drove the Panthers down to the IU 2-yard line on the doorstep of a tie game. Instead he threw an interception that was returned 96-yards for a TD to give IU the clinching TD. Back to the defense…In two games the Hoosier defense has given up almost 1,100 yards. They did get a number of key players back on the defensive side of the ball last week after being suspended in week one, most important being DL Darius Latham. Western Kentucky is obviously a team that can shred a poor defense. The Hilltoppers averaged 44 PPG on 535 YPG a year ago. They struggled offensively @ Vandy in their first game but bounced back in a big way last week against a very solid La Tech defense scoring 41 points and rolling up 589 yards. The problem is, their defense allowed 38 points and 580 yards to the Bulldogs. So while WKY might have their way with Indiana’s defense, the same can be said about the Hoosiers offense. Indiana scored 29 points offensively last week but it should have been much more. On their first 6 drives of the game, the Hoosiers crossed the 50 yard line 5 times and pushed inside the FIU 30 yard line on 4 of those, yet only came away with 13 points. Head coach Kevin Wilson acknowledged he made some very poor offensive calls and didn’t take advantage of field position. This one could be a shootout.

RUTGERS @ PENN STATE – OPENING LINE PENN STATE (-8.5) – It was definitely another tough week for the Rutgers football program. Not only did they lose a home game to Washington State, their star WR Leonte Carroo, all Big Ten last year, was arrested after the game for assaulting a woman he was involved with. He is now suspended. That is the SEVENTH Rutgers player that has been arrested this month alone! All of the off the field noise has to have a negative effect on not only the players, but the coaches focus on preparation. It has quickly put head coach Kyle Flood on the hot seat and he has been suspended for 3 games which is obviously a distraction. We’ll keep a close eye on this moving forward. Back to the Washington State loss which wasn’t nearly as close at the 37-34 final score indicated. WSU had a big edge yardage wise (+157) and Rutgers needed 2 return TD’s (one punt & one kickoff) just to stay close. They also had a punt return for a TD the week before in their blowout win over Norfolk State. Penn State’s offense has been under a microscope since the end of last season when they averaged only 20 PPG overall and topped 20 points only ONCE the entire Big Ten season. The offensive line was supposed to be drastically improved, after a horrendous 2014. Well after 2 games it doesn’t look like that has happened. The PSU offense is averaging just 18 PPG – actually down from last year – and just 255 YPG on offense. QB Hackenberg was sacked 10 times in their opener vs Temple after 44 times last season. He has thrown for only 231 yards in two games combined and this from a QB that is supposed to be a potential high NFL draft choice. The offense still isn’t good. Last year PSU went into Rutgers and escaped with a hard fought 13-10 win and the Nits were +4 in turnovers in that game. We’re probably looking at another “grinder” on Saturday.

PITTSBURGH @ IOWA – OPENING LINE IOWA (-5) – The Hawkeyes went into Pitt last year as a 6.5 point dog and pulled off the mild upset winning 24-20. The Panthers held a semi comfortable 17-7 lead at half and had a +130 yardage edge at the break. The final stats also had Pitt with a +7 edge in first downs and +120 in total yardage. The Panthers also had 20 more offensive snaps and still lost by 4. Iowa has impressed so far this year. They definitely look like an improved football team. After rolling over a very good FCS team in week 1 (Illinois St) and Hawks got by state rival Iowa State in Ames by a final score of 31-17. It was close most of the way with Iowa scoring two TD’s in the final 3:00 minutes to pull away. However, Iowa dominated in the trenches with a 260-63 rushing edge and a 6.8 to 5.0 YPP advantage. Lots has changed on the Pitt side since then including a new coaching staff led by head man Pat Narduzzi. Narduzzi is very familiar with the Iowa offense from his days defending it as the DC at Michigan State. In Narduzzi most recent meeting with Iowa in 2013, his MSU defense held the Hawks to 14 points on just 264 total yards (only 23 yards rushing). The more concerning issue for Narduzzi and Pitt is at the key position on the field, QB. Last year’s starter Chad Voytik has been under center to start the first two games but was replaced last week in the 2nd quarter by Tennessee transfer Nathan Peterman who was 12 of 17 for 148 yards. Voytik did not re-enter the game after being pulled in a tie game in the 2nd quarter and Narduzzi has not announced a starter as of this writing. Pitt won both games but they weren’t easy. They struggled to a 7-point home win over Youngstown St to open the season and then led only 10-7 last week @ Akron before extending to a 24-7 win. Pitt has a bye after this game while Iowa hosts North Texas.

AIR FORCE @ MICHIGAN STATE – OPENING LINE MICHIGAN STATE (-27) – This could be a dangerous game for Sparty. It’s going to be awfully tough for this team to get up emotionally for this game as a huge favorite. They had been waiting for a full year for another crack at Oregon and the overwhelming thought was, if they can get by the Ducks, this MSU team would run the table until their match up @ Ohio State on November 21st. They got the win and it was a tight one that was undecided with only a few seconds remaining. Now they have only a week to “come down” from that win and prepare for an Air Force offense they almost never see. The Falcons, who had a 10-3 record last year, rarely pass the ball and lead the nation in rushing attempts per game at 69. They did lose starting QB Romine last week to a knee injury and he is gone for the season. His replacement, Karson Roberts, came in last week with Air Force leading San Jose St by just 7 and led them to 2 TD’s in the 37-16 win. Roberts also started 3 games in 2013 so he has some experience. The knock on him is he doesn’t pass the ball as well as Romine but when you attempt only 11 passes per game as a team that weakness isn’t quite as pronounced. It is rare for a disciplined, smart Air Force team to be getting this type of number. Since 1980, the Falcons have been an underdog of 21 points or more just 11 times. They are 8-3 ATS in those games winning 2 of them outright. Michigan State will obviously have a big edge on both sides of the ball if they show up and play. The question is will they and if not can they cover this big number?

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