ASA’s BIG TEN REPORT – Saturday, Sept 12

Big Ten Preview for Saturday, Sept 12 – Board Games Only…

OREGON @ MICHIGAN STATE – OPENING LINE MICHIGAN STATE (-3.5) – These two faced off last year in Eugene and Oregon (-13) pulled away in the 2nd half for a 46-27 win. The game was much closer than that however as MSU actually held a 27-18 lead in the 3rd quarter. After the Spartans took at 27-18 lead early in the 3rd, the Ducks went onto outscore MSU 28-0 and outyard MSU 284 to 132. The overall yardage was fairly close (MSU 466 & OU 491) but Sparty turned the ball over twice (no turnovers for Oregon). The Ducks 2015 debut last week was very impressive on offense (61 points & 731 total yards) but discouraging on defense (42 points allowed & 549 yards allowed). New Eastern Washington QB’s West & Hennessy torched the OU secondary for 438 passing yards on 8 yards per attempt. Last year’s EWU QB Vernon Adams switched jerseys and is the starting QB for Oregon this season. He had a solid performance before he took a cheap shot late in the game from one of his “teammates” from last year and had to exit. Looks like he’ll be fine for this Saturday’s game. MSU took care of a solid Western Michigan team on the road winning 37-24. Sparty’s defense was OK but not great in this one. WMU put up just short of 400 yards on 5 YPP. It was MSU’s first game without long time defensive coordinator Narduzzi who is now the head man at Pitt. Looks like both defenses might have problems slowing down their opponents which is why the total came out at 67. This is a game MSU has had this game circled for a full year. They are 13-1 the last two years at home with their only loss coming to Ohio State here a year ago. Oregon has not been an underdog since the 2011 season (46 straight games as a favorite). The Ducks were 26-13 ATS as an underdog from late in the 1999 season through 2011.

WASHINGTON STATE @ RUTGERS – OPENING LINE RUTGERS (-2) – Lots of distractions taking place right now at Rutgers with an academic scandal and the dismissal of 5 arrested players. Those distractions didn’t come into play last week as the Knights played a severely overmatched Norfolk State team who was just 4-8 last season. It was a close game at half with Rutgers leading 21-13. In the 2nd half, the Knights regained the services of QB Chris Laviano & WR Leonte Carroo who were both suspended in the 1st half. They went onto outscore Norfolk St 42-0 in the 2nd half for a final of 63-13. Washington St comes in shaken. They were upset at home by Portland State as a 30 point favorite! How unlikely was that? Since 1980 there have been 1,235 teams favored by 30 points or more and only 14 of those teams have lost outright. WSU outgained Portland St 411 to 294 but their high powered offense was hindered as the game was played in a driving rain storm. Starting QB Luke Falk took a big hit late in the game and has been limited this week in practice. We’re told he’ll be ready and will start on Saturday. These two met last year and Rutgers (+8) pulled the road upset winning 41-38. Look for the Knights to try and control tempo again this year by running A LOT! They held an 7:00 minute time of possession edge in last year’s game rushing 43 times for 215 yards.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL @ INDIANA – OPENING LINE INDIANA (-7.5) – The Hoosiers escaped with a win over FCS opponent Southern Illinois 48-47. After scoring the go ahead TD with just 1:20 remaining, IU allowed the Salukis to go 75 yards in 5 plays scoring with 18 seconds left. Rather than kick the XP and move to overtime, SIU decided to go for the win and their 2-point attempt failed. The Hoosiers looked very good on offense rolling up 595 total yards. The problem is, as it has been for years, the Indiana defense. They gave up a whopping 659 yards on an embarrassing 8.5 yards per play. To put that in perspective, that’s more yardage than SIU (who had a 5-6 record last year) put up on any of their FCS opponents. It was 100 yards more than SIU gained on last year’s opening opponent, Taylor University. The Hoosiers were missing key players at each level of their defense with starting DT Latham and starting LB Scales suspended. Starting safety Dutra was also out with an injury. In all IU had 9 players suspended for game 1. Eight of those players will be back this week with the exception of Scales who is serving a 2 game suspension. This is another dangerous game for IU. Florida International upset their in-state rival UCF 15-14 last Thursday. The Panthers, unlike Indiana, look to have a stout defense holding UCF to just 295 total yards on 64 plays (4.6 YPP). FIU has also had a few extra days to prepare for this one playing on opening Thursday last week. Perhaps a letdown for FIU after their big win?

MIAMI OH @ WISCONSIN – OPENING LINE WISCONSIN (-34) – Badgers are a bit beat up coming off their physical game with Alabama. Alabama was able to wear down Wisconsin in the trenches in the 2nd half en route to a 35-17 win. Speaking of trenches, this looks to be one of Wisconsin’s weaker offensive lines in years. They started 3 players up front who have never made a collegiate start. They’ve also had a number of injuries on the O Line so they are very thin at that spot. Starting RB Clement tweaked his groin during the week and was not nearly 100% on Saturday. Starting WR McEvoy pulled a hamstring in practice and also was not at 100%. Lastly, the QB of their defense and leading returning tackler, safety Mike Caputo exited after only a few plays last week due to a concussion. He will be evaluated later this week. QB Stave looked solid as we thought he might as new head coach Paul Chryst is very good with QB’s. The Badgers were held to just 40 yards rushing and 15 of those came from a WR on an end around. This from a team that has averaged 264 YPG rushing of the last 5 years. It was their lowest rushing total for a game since the 2012 season. They should be fine this week against a Miami OH team that allowed 200 YPG on the ground last year and 155 yards rushing on over 4 YPC to Presbyterian last Saturday (a 26-7 Miami Oh win, a 13-7 game entering the 4th quarter).

OREGON STATE @ MICHIGAN – OPENING LINE MICHIGAN (–14) – Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan debut ended in a disappointing 24-17 loss @ Utah. The Wolverines actually outgained the Utes 355 to 337 and 4.9 YPP to 4.8 YPP. The two glaring problems for Michigan in that game were interceptions (3) by new QB Jake Rudock (former Iowa QB) including one returned for a TD. Rudock threw only 5 picks all last season as the starter for the Hawkeyes so we guess his game vs Utah may have been an aberration. The second was their running game. Harbaugh really wants to emphasize the rushing attack and beat teams up on the ground. Michigan tallied only 76 yards rushing on only 2.6 YPR. Defensively the Wolves will again be among the best in the nation. After allowing just 311 YPG last year (6th nationally) new DC DJ Durkin had them looking very good last Thursday. Former Wisconsin head man Gary Andersen brings Oregon St into Ann Arbor Saturday. He’s transitioning the Beavs to a spread offense from their pro style sets under former coach Mike Riley. OSU won their opener vs Weber State 26-7 in a game that was 6-0 at half. True freshman QB Seth Collins will be making his first career start after impressing in the 2nd half last week. They’ll rely heavily on the run (only 110 yards passing last week vs Weber) which could be a problem against a stout and big Michigan front. The game also starts at 12 Noon ET so Oregon State’s “body clocks” will be set at 9 AM Pacific.

MORE BIG TEN NEWS HERE…KEEP READING…

IOWA @ IOWA STATE – OPENING LINE IOWA (-3.5) – Both teams impressed in their openers last weekend. Iowa faced an Illinois State team that made it to the FCS National Championship game last year. The Hawkeyes dominated jumping out to a 31-0 lead before a few late TD’s made it look more respectable at 31-14. Iowa was +8 first downs, +200 yards, and +5:00 time of possession. Iowa State also whipped a very reputable FCS opponent downing Northern Iowa 31-7. UNI is a team that beat this Iowa State squad 2 years ago and then nearly topped Iowa last season. For comparison’s sake, Northern Iowa played host to Illinois State last year and beat the Redbirds 42-28. In their game on Saturday @ ISU, despite the lopsided final score, the numbers were fairly even. The Cyclones had a minimal 310 to 302 total yardage edge along with just one more first down. Iowa State led just 10-7 at half but it could have been much worse as the Cyclones missed 2 field goals and QB Richardson overthrew what would have been 2 TD passes. Iowa State pulled the upset last year winning in Iowa City 20-17 as a 13-point dog. Neither team did much offensively as ISU tallied 337 yards and Iowa had only 275. That’s a common theme in this rivalry that has averaged only 39 total points per game the last 17. Only 3 of those 17 games have topped 48 total points. Iowa State has dominated the spread numbers going 13-4 ATS in this series.

MINNESOTA @ COLORADO STATE – OPENING LINE MINNESOTA (-5.5) – The Gophs defense was very impressive in their home opener vs #2 TCU. We were told the coaching staff is really excited about that side of the ball and feel they have their best defensive backfield in years. That looked like the case last Thursday despite the 23-17 loss to the Horned Frogs. While TCU did put up 449 yards, it also took them 84 plays to do so (just 5.2 YPP). This from a TCU team that average 6.6 YPP a year ago. TCU has now faced Minnesota twice in their last 14 games and the Gophers have held them to an average of 26.5 PPG in those two games. TCU has averaged 48 PPG in their other 12 games during that 14 game stretch. Minny QB Leidner looked decent throwing for 197 yards. They’ll need some consistency from him in the passing game if they want to beat the better teams on the schedule. Hard to gather much from new head coach Mike Bobo’s CSU debut. The Rams crushed Savannah State 65-13, although State might be the worst team in the entire FCS. They were 0-12 last year losing 10 of those games by 2 TD’s or more. CSU was 6-0 at home last year and you’d think they’d have a very good long term record at home but that’s not the case (just 31-26 at home the last 10 years). The Gophs have been a road favorite just 6 times over the last 5 years so not something they are used to.

BUFFALO @ PENN STATE – OPENING LINE PENN STATE (-18.5) – Well the talk of PSU’s offense, which averaged only 20 PPG last year, being better may have been a bit premature. Granted, they were playing a Temple team that looks to have a very good defense, but that was ugly. PSU QB Hackenberg looked flustered the entire game and why wouldn’t he. He was under constant pressure and the Owls sacked him a whopping 10 times. The offensive line which was horrendous last year for the Nits, looked just as bad in game 1. Temple held Penn State to only 180 total yards on 52 plays. Hackenberg completed only 11 passes and averaged only 4 yards per pass attempt. After their first 2 drives which resulted in 10 points, the Nittany Lions totaled 33 yards on their final 12 drives! Buffalo has a new coach in Lance Leipold who led Wisconsin-Whitewater to SIX National Titles and has a ridiculous career record of 110-6. Buffalo rolled in their first game beating Albany 51-14. They are experienced on offense with a solid QB in senior Joe Licata, who has started 29 consecutive games for the Bulls. Not sure this is a spot for PSU to be laying a huge number into a well-coached team that can score points. We’ll see.

BOWLING GREEN @ MARYLAND – OPENING LINE MARYLAND (-9) – Bowling Green has a very tough back to back situation here after playing @ Tennessee last weekend. The Falcons lost that game by 29 points (59-30 final) but that score was quite deceiving in our opinion. BG racked up 557 yards on 85 plays (6.5 YPP) compared to Tennessee’s 604 yards on 87 plays (6.9 YPP). Obviously you wouldn’t normally see a 29 point differential in those numbers. Maryland played host to Richmond in what looked like a near empty stadium at kickoff. The Spiders gave them a game until half trailing just 22-14 before Maryland exploded for a 50-21 win. Terp punt returner William Likely set a Big Ten record with 233 return yards including one for a TD. Maryland rushed for 341 yards on 45 carries while new QB Perry Hills only completed 12 passes for 138 yards. They also looked very solid defensively allowing only 276 total yards to the Spiders. We’ll really find out about their defense this weekend as BG will push the pace in an attempt to run 80+ plays. The Falcons offense looked great against what was supposed to be a solid SEC defense in Tennessee. We expect them to put up big numbers again this week against a Maryland team that we projected near the bottom of the Big Ten defensively. We’ll find out a lot about Maryland this weekend.

HAWAII @ OHIO STATE – OPENING LINE OHIO STATE (-40)

With all of the build up to Monday’s game @ Virginia Tech, the Bucks are bound to have a bit of a letdown this weekend at home vs Hawaii. The question is, is this Hawaii team good enough to take advantage of that and keep the game within 5 or so TD’s? Scheduling wise, this situation does favor Hawaii who played last Thursday as compared to Monday for Ohio State. However, you also have to factor in the 4,500 mile trip the Rainbows must make which probably negates the scheduling advantage. The Bows are off an upset home won over Buffalo late last Thursday night. They were a 7.5 point home dog and won the game 28-20. The Rainbows had only 302 total yards in the game – averaging just 4.1 YPP. New QB, Max Wittek, a transfer from USC threw for 202 in his debut & the Bows benefitted from 3 Colorado turnovers. If they could only put up barely 4 YPP on a Colorado team that finished 0-9 in the Pac 12 last year, what will they do against Ohio State’s defense? The last time Hawaii lost by 40+ points was @ BYU in 2012 (47-0 final). Meanwhile, the Bucks put up 42 points and over 10 YPP on a defense that is expected to be very good this year. Not only did they average more than 10 yards per play, they up nearly 10 YPC on the ground rushing for 360 yards on 37 carries. Not only that, the Bucks get back a number of key players (Joey Bosa, Jalin Marshall, etc…) who were suspended for last weekend’s game. OSU can name this score. The question is, do they want to win by more than 40 or do they call the dogs off late and coast keeping this close to the number?

SOUTH ALABAMA @ NEBRASKA – OPENING LINE NEBRASKA (-25.5) – We all know how the Nebraska game ended last week with a BYU hail mary. Now the key question is how do the Huskers respond this week? Do they come out angry and ready to roast someone or do they come out flat after feeling sorry for themselves and how they lost their home opener? The Husker defense looks to be a potential problem again this year. After getting torched at the end of the season last year, the trend continued as BYU rolled up 511 total yards. Dating back to last year, in their last 5 games the Nebraska has allowed an average of 40 PPG and 488 YPG. The Huskers obviously need to get that addressed and quickly. If the NU defense can’t get “better” this week, they might be in big trouble. South Alabama was a pedestrian offense last year getting held to 12 points or less 5 times! This team returned only 5 starters this year which is the fewest in all of college football. The Jags struggled to beat Gardner Webb last week by a final score of 33-23, a game they trailed early in the 3rd quarter. South Alabama had 408 total yards, however 148 of those came on two long TD plays of 92 & 56 yards. The Jags played 2 Power 5 teams last year losing @ Mississippi State 35-3 and @ South Carolina 37-12. Nebraska plays @ Miami FL next week so a tough sandwich spot coming off a last second loss.