ASA’s AFC NORTH TOTAL WIN BEST BET – Under 10.5 Cleveland Browns
We’re playing the value here. The Browns season win total opened 9.5 and has been bet up a full win to 10.5. Here’s where we grab the UNDER. The Browns won 11 games last year and made the playoffs for the first time since 2002. They did so despite a point differential of -11 on the season which was good for 16th in the NFL. Cleveland was the only team to make the playoffs with a negative point differential. The reason they were able to come up with 11 wins despite getting outscored on the season was they were very good in close games. They had 9 games last season decided by a single score and the Browns won 7 of those games. Almost half of their wins (5) games vs teams that had 4 or fewer wins on the season (Cincinnati (twice), Jacksonville, Houston, Philadelphia) and despite the poor competition, all of those wins came by 5 points or less. Football Outsiders had Cleveland ranked as the 18th best team in the NFL at the end of 2020 (DVOA) and they were very fortunate to get to 11 wins. With no gimmies in the AFC North this season and cross overs with the AFC West & NFC North along with a game vs the ever improving Cardinals, we don’t think Cleveland can top 10 wins again this season.
Check out ASA’s other Futures Bet in the AFC today!
Miami Dolphins 9.5 wins – Over or Under??
Kansas City Chiefs Over or Under 12 Wins?
