ASA’s AFC EAST PREDICTIONS – Aug, 5th 2019

AFC East

Miami Dolphins – 2018 record (7-9) – ATS Record (8-8) – Over/Under Record (8-8)

  • Yards Per Game Differential -101
  • Point Differential -114

2019 ASA prediction – Play OVER 5 Wins for the Miami Dolphins

How bad have the Fins been the last 2 seasons?  Their combined point differential for 2017 and 2018 was an embarrassing -226!  That includes -112 last year and -114 in 2017.  Even with that, Miami won 6 and 7 games the last 2 seasons.  Now their win total is set just at 5.  We feel  5 wins is probably the floor for this Dolphin team and more likely they get to 6-10.  The oft-injured Tannehill is gone at QB and Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen form a decent duo at that position.  While many consider this a step down at QB, we’re not so sure.  Fitzpatrick has had a higher QBR than Tannehill in 4 of the last 5 seasons and Rosen has a chance to be very good in our opinion.  When Fitzpatrick started for the Bucs last year (8 games) they averaged 27 PPG in those contests.  The offense, which averaged just 19 PPG last year, should be better in 2019.  That should help a defense that was put in some bad situations last year with an offense that couldn’t score (17 points or less in 6 of their last 8 games).  The AFC East, beyond the Patriots, is not a tough division.  If Miami can at least split with the Bills and Jets, they are already nearly halfway to this win total.  The Fins have won less than 5 games only twice since 1970 with the most recent being in 2007.  While adjusting to a new coach is never ideal, we think they find a way to get to 6 wins in 2018.

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Buffalo Bills – 2018 record (6-10) – ATS Record (7-9) – Over/Under Record (7-9)

  • Yards Per Game Differential -47
  • Point Differential -105

2019 ASA prediction – Play OVER 6.5 Wins for the Buffalo Bills

The Bills had a -57 point differential in 2017 yet went 9-7.  We felt they would regress last and we played Under 7 and they went on to win 6 games.  This year we feel the Bills will get back to at least 7 wins.  The defense was one of the best in the NFL last year and should be very good again this season.  They finished 2nd in the NFL in total defense and 3rd in YPP defense.  The offense was the problem.  They topped 13 points just TWICE in their first 10 games.  Down the stretch rookie QB Josh Allen looked much better guiding the offense to an average of 22 PPG over their final 5 games last season.  Just an average offense this year should put the Bills easily at 7 or more wins.  Allen had a 5-8 record in his 13 starts last year and we expect the rookie to make a big jump in his 2nd season.  We really think Buffalo’s schedule gives them an advantage this season.  They have very little travel (8,700 total miles – 3rd least in the NFL) with their furthest trip West this year coming @ Dallas!  Their first 3 games of the season are @ Jets, @ Giants, and vs Bengals, three teams that combined to win only 15 games last year.  They play a grand total of ONE playoff team (Patriots) in their first 11 games of the season.  So a potential fast start for the Bills is a real possibility.  OVER 6.5 wins is the play here.   

New England Patriots – 2018 record (11-5) – ATS Record (9-7 ATS) – Over/Under Record (5-11)

  • Yards Per Game Differential +34
  • Point Differential +111

2019 ASA prediction – Play OVER 11 Wins for the New England Patriots

New England won 11 games last year and they are pegged to win 11 again this season.  While we feel an 11-5 record is probable, we also feel they have a much better chance to get to 12 wins than they do falling to 10 wins.  Thus we grab the OVER.  Each year many predict the fall of the Pats and each year they prove those people wrong.  With Belichick and Brady still on board and playing in a weak AFC East division, New England will be a Super Bowl contender again this season.  The offense is what it is with Brady at the helm and that is one of the best in the NFL.  That won’t change.  The defense finished in the middle of the pack last year (15th in total defense & 16th in YPP defense) and this team STILL won 11 regular season games.  Despite winning the Super Bowl last season, the schedule makers look like they gave the Patriots an easy route to the playoffs again this season.  Their opponents this year had a 47% winning percentage last year giving them the 2nd easiest slate in the NFL ahead of only the Redskins.  After opening at home vs Pittsburgh, a tough game, the Pats face the Dolphins, Jets, Bills, Redskins, Giants, Jets, and Browns the following 7 games.  All had losing records in 2018!  Since 2002, New England has won less than 11 games a grand total of 2 times.  We get a push at 11 here and feel 12 is a strong possibility. 

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New York Jets – 2018 record (4-12) – ATS Record (5-10-1) – Over/Under Record (10-6)

  • Yards Per Game Differential -81
  • Point Differential -108

2019 ASA prediction – Play UNDER 7 Wins for the NY Jets

The Jets have won 5 games or less in each of the last 3 seasons (4 last year) and while we expect them to be a bit improved this year, we do not see a full 4 game jump from last season which is what it would take to get over 7 wins.  It will take some time for New York to adjust to new head coach Adam Gase and his philosophies on both sides of the ball.  That’s not a good thing this year as the Jets schedule is front loaded with some very tough games.  Hosting the Bills & Browns to start the season is no cakewalk.  Both teams should be improved this year.   After that, a stretch of @ Patriots, @ Eagles, Cowboys, Patriots, @ Jags, @ Dolphins is not a great set up to find your bearings with a new staff.  The Jets will most likely be underdogs in 6 of their first 7 games and possibly 7 of their first 8 so a slow start is expected.  The offense added former Pittsburgh RB Le’Veon Bell however we’re not sure it’s a great fit.  That’s because the Jets offensive line was the WORST run blocking line in the NFL per Football Outsiders which will make it tough on Bell.  That puts all kinds of pressure on QB Darnold who should be very good in time but he’s only in his 2nd year and he missed 3 games last year due to injury.  We’d be surprised if he gets through this season unscathed.  The New York offense has averaged 17, 18, and 20 PPG the last 3 years so unless you have a shut down defense, which the Jets don’t (allowed 28 PPG last year) it’s tough to win games.  We think it’s probable the Jets finish with 6 wins or less this year.