ASA’s 2020 Cincinnati Reds Preview



RECORD – 75 wins / 87 losses

OVERALL MONEY -$1,110 (based on $100 wagered per game)


HOME RECORD – 41 wins / 40 losses (-$380)

ROAD RECORD – 34 wins / 47 losses (-$730)

RECORD AS FAVORITE – 40 wins / 32 losses (-$270)

RECORD AS UNDERDOG – 35 wins / 55 losses (-$840)

OVER/UNDER RECORD – 60 Overs / 93 Unders / 9 Ties


BATTING AVERAGE – .244 (24th in the Majors)

OPS (on base + slugging) – .736 (22nd)

HOME RUNS – 227 (14th)

RUNS PER GAME – 4.33 (25th)


ERA – 4.18 (9th)

FIP (fielding independent pitching) – 4.23 (9th)

WHIP (walk + hits allowed per inning) – 1.25 (6th)

STRIKEOUT to WALK RATIO – 2.90 (10th)


ASA CINCINNATI ANALYSIS – Cincinnati has been a dreadful franchise over the past 5+ seasons.  After finishing with 97 & 90 wins back in 2012 & 2013, the Reds have averaged just 69 wins per season over the last 6 years.  They finished dead last in the NL Central in 2015, 2016, 2017, AND 2018!  Last year they improved to 4th in the division but still finished 12 games below .500.  We think they have a solid chance to improve by a significant margin this season.  If the full season were being played, we’d say 80+ wins would be our projections.  Despite their record, the Reds pitching was among the most consistent in MLB last season.  They actually finished in the top 10 in most key pitching statistics.  Their top 2 starters, Luis Castillo & Sonny Gray, are as good a one, two punch as there is in the division.  If veterans Anthony DeSclafani, Trevor Bauer, and new addition Wade Miley can be solid, this rotation is very good.  Their bullpen was decent ranking 13th in the Majors in ERA and 5th in batting average allowed.  So if their pitching was that good yet they only won 75 games you can assume their offense was bad and you would be correct.  They didn’t have a single player on last year’s team with more than 20 at bats that had batting average of over .288.  They lost one of their better offensive threats during the season last year when outfielder Yasiel Puig was traded to Cleveland.  They added Mike Moustakas from Milwaukee and Nick Castellanos from the Cubs in the off-season.  The bright spot was 3B Eugenio Suarez who was among the best power hitters in baseball last season (49 HR’s and .529 slugging percentage).  He had shoulder surgery in January which may have held him out early but with the delay he should be ready to go whenever the start the season.  If their offense improves even slightly, we’d expect an improvement as the pitching should be solid again.