ASA NFL free bet – Oct 4th

Play on: OVER 52.5 Buffalo Bills vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 4:25PM ET

At first glance you may think the Total on this game is higher than normal, but scoring is drastically up in the NFL this season and the number on this game is barely higher than league average. Games through the first three weeks of the NFL season are averaging 51PPG, nearly a full touchdown more than games average through three weeks a season ago. Over’s have been cashing at an astounding rate of 29-18-1 on the season. In this matchup we get the 3rd highest scoring team in the NFL with Buffalo at 31PPG and the 9th highest scoring with Las Vegas at 29.3PPG. The Bills have the 3rd highest yards per play average while the Raiders check in at fourteen.

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In terms of offensive efficiency, both teams are top 9 in the league and both rank 14th or better in yards per point. Who is going to stop either of these offenses on Sunday? The Raiders have the 31st or second to last defensive efficiency ratings in the NFL while Buffalo is 24th. Buffalo is allowing 26PPG while the Raiders allow 30PPG and both are in the bottom half of the league in yards per point allowed. This game won’t be an ‘average’ game in terms of the Total like the oddsmakers are suggesting. Bet the OVER here. 

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