ASA Free NFL bet Nov 26

ASA PLAY ON Detroit +3 over Houston, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET

Does Houston warrant being a road favorite in this game?  They have a grand total of 3 wins on the season and 2 of those came against Jacksonville.  Their other win came last week at home vs a New England team that is just 4-6 on the season and a huge step down from the Patriots teams of the last 15+ seasons.  This number is also an overreaction to Detroit’s terrible performance last week losing 20-0 @ Carolina. 

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You can bet they’ll play much better at home after that embarrassing performance.  They were missing a number of key offensive players in that game including WR’s Golladay and Amendola and RB Swift.  We’ll have to monitor their status here.  If all are out again, that really hurts Detroit’s offense and we’d most likely come off this play.  If at full strength, we expect them to have a big game facing the 31st ranked defense in the nation (Houston allows 411 YPG).  On top of that Houston can’t run the ball.  They rank 31st in rushing.  So we have a team with a bad defense that can’t run laying points on the road.  That’s a go against in our book.  Let’s compare a few numbers from earlier this year to prove our point this line is off.  Detroit was +3 at home vs New Orleans and +3.5 at home vs Indianapolis this year.  Now they are sitting at +3 vs a bad Houston team?  Bad line and we’ll take advantage with the home underdog with Houston traveling on a short week.  Monitoring injuries will be key here.