Sept 29th ASA PLAY ON OVER the Total – Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays, Tuesday at 5 PM ET – There is a unique element in this series that is not present in any of the other series involving the 16 teams that have made the post-season. With the unique scheduling element this season the only opponents that teams faced in their own league were in their own division. Out of all 8 playoff series to begin the post-season this is the only one that pits divisional foes. We feel that will lead to more offense in this one because these teams played 60 games this season and 10 were against each other. They know the other teams bullpens and, in the case of Game 1, we like the odds of both starters getting a little roughed up too! The Blue Jays are starting Matt Shoemaker and he made only 6 starts this season and half of those were against the Rays! In his last two starts against Tampa Bay, Shoemaker allowed 5 earned runs in 9 innings and the damage could have been even worse as the Rays hit 3 homers against him in those 9 innings! Tampa Bay starter Blake Snell is a great pitcher but there is reason to believe he could struggle a bit here against this Blue Jays team loaded with dangerous hitters. Toronto will be facing Snell for the 3rd time in 2 months and getting extra looks at a hurler tends to favor the hitters. Additionally, Snell struggled in 2 of his 4 September starts. Also, in his last 3 starts at home, the Rays southpaw gave up 7 runs (6 earned) on 15 hits (including a pair of homers) and walked 6 in 16 innings. Those aren’t horrible numbers but they aren’t great either. With a low total of 7.5 runs here, our computer math model indicates strong value on the over as the projection is closer to the 9 to 10 run range in this one (average of 9.5 projected here per the modeling). We’ll go with the over here and like the unique situation in this match-up favoring the hitters in comparison with the other series. Bet the OVER in the Rays game in early evening action Tuesday.
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