ASA’s LONG SHOT TO WIN NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
BYU at 100/1
This number is way to high in our opinion. This is a very good BYU team and we like their draw. Can they win the National Championship? Probably not but we don’t need them to. With the number at 100/1 if they can make it to the 2nd weekend, we have a chance to make a very nice profit simply by hedging at that point. The Cougars are very solid on both sides of the ball ranking in the top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are one of the bigger teams in the country led up front by former Purdue 7 foot 3 big man Haarms. This team won’t get pushed around inside by the Power 5 teams. BYU is very balanced offensively both inside and outside. They are a very good shooting team ranking in the top 35 nationally in both 3-point percentage and 2-point percentage AND they make their free throws. This team beat San Diego State, Utah, Utah State, and St Johns in the non-conference season. They were easily the 2nd best team in the WCC behind #1 Gonzaga and they played the Bulldogs better than any other team in the nation losing by 11 and 10 points in their final 2 meetings. Three of their six losses on the season are vs the Zags. In the WCC Championship game, BYU actually led Gonzaga by 12 at halftime before losing by 10. The Cougars get either UCLA or Michigan State on Saturday and whoever wins that will be on short rest. MSU is way down this year and a team that struggles offensively. UCLA was the 5th best team in a Pac 12 conference that was OK at best. We think BYU takes down whoever they play in that game. Then it will most likely be Texas, however the Horns have a tough match up in round one with Abliene Christian. Texas is only a 9-point favorite in that match up so it’s not a gimmie. The Horns are solid but still just the 4th best team in the Big 12 according to Ken Pom ratings. BYU would be an underdog in that game but a small one. If they get by that, they’re on to the Sweet 16 where we start hedging and make a solid profit whether they win or lose.