NBA FREE BET Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets, 10PM ET
We like the value in this game now that the Total on this game opened 229 and has since been bet down to 225. Let’s put ourselves on the same side as Vegas here with an Over wager. The Warriors are coming off a very low scoring game against the Pacers, but Indiana is a top 10 defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing just 1.082 points per possession. Prior to that the Warriors faced historically tough defensive teams in the Raptors and Clippers and those games resulted in low scoring Unders. Also, consider the O/U’s set on those games by Vegas which were all 229 or more. The Warriors are a top 10 offensive efficiency team but rank 18th in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets made it to the Western Conference finals last year but were exposed defensively throughout the playoffs. Experts thought they’d address the issue and make adjustment this season but that hasn’t been the case. Denver allows 1.142 points per possession which ranks 25th in the NBA. They are the 26th worst team in the NBA in EFG% defense and 25th in 3-point percentage defense. What Denver does do well though is efficiency score the basketball at 117.1 points per 100 possessions. The Nuggets are also the 9th best 3-point percentage shooting team in the league. Denver prefers to play slower but Golden State likes it fast so those numbers should nullify each other into an average pace. The total is set slightly higher than the average total points scored in an NBA game and yet we have two capable offenses of scoring 115+. Our model projects 231 total points.