Kenny Schmitt Tell the Truth Tuesday – Sept 18th

Greetings My Friends,

The Tuesday edition of our newsletter will feature, what we call NCAA misleading final scores.  Remember their is much more to a game than the highlights, final score, & team rankings.  We dig into the meat of the game, we look at KEY PLAYS, Yards Per Play, Turnovers, & First Downs!  When handicapping football, their is much more than who’s facing each other on the gridiron!

One other note we want to STRESS, when it comes to handicapping and or wagering you have to take out your emotional trait from your inner self at that time. You have to become an UNBIASED individual with no distortion in your mind at all. This is true in all means of life, but especially IMPORTANT when wagering your hard earned MONEY!


Notre Dame Vs. Vanderbilt – The cliche we’ve all been hearing for our entire life the Luck Of The Irish, and boy have they been lucky the past two weeks. Just two weeks ago Ball St. pushed them all over the field and came up short on the scoreboard and how lucky were the Irish this week against Vandy!  Well they were out played the entire game, but once again they won were it counts the scoreboard. Take a look below at the game stats.

The Dores held the total yard advantage in this game 420 – 380. They also out passed the Irish by a margin of 326 – 135, which equates to 7.6 ypp for Vandy and the Irish only averaged 5.2 yards per pass. The Dores left a win on the filed in South Bend last weekend as they -.3 in the TO category and also missed a FG. After all that, they still had a shot to win, as they were driving for the winning TD, when one of their WR dropped a pass on 4th down to seal the Irish win. Take note of the Fighting Irish next 3 games on their schedule, (@Wake Forest, Stanford, & @Virginia Tech).

T.C.U. Vs. Ohio St. – Yes the final score shows Ohio St. winning by the margin of 40-28, but this contest was much closer on the field.  The Frogs of T.C.U. played toe to toe with the Buckeyes the entire game. This Ohio St. defense isn’t as vaunted as they media makes them out to be. Most won’t remember theBuckeyes week 1 game against Oregon St. as they shouldn’t because the Buckeyes won by a margin of 77-31. But the underlying stat from that game, is the Buckeyes let Artavis Pierece of the Beavers run for 168 yards on 11 carries. 

Once again this week Darius Anders for TCU ran for 154 yards on 12 carries, you see a similar pattern?  The Beavers had 392 total yards and they are one of the worst team in the FBS and now this past week the Frogs of T.C.U. put up 511 total yards!  The Frogs averaged 6.72 yards per play and the Buckeyes averaged 6.58 yards per play. The difference in this final score was the two defensive TD’s the Buckeyes got in the 2nd half. Once again the TO margin was T.C.U. -3  /  Ohio St. 0!

Florida Vs. Colorado St. – It’s amazing what a score board can show at the end of a game. The Gators win 48-10, it looks like an sudden explosion of offense from the Gators (NOT)!  The Gators only gained 341 yards, that really only equates to 24.5 ppg using a formula I was taught by an old school handicapper back in the day. If you think I’m hard on Joe Burrow, it’s much worst from my POV with Felipe Franks. This young man is BAD and it’s the best Mullen has in that group. Felipe only completed 8/15 for 119 and here is the KEY STAT,  one completion was 68 yards and the another one was 30 yards.  Which means 98 of his 119 yards were on 2 pass plays!!!

Interior stats,

Colorado St. 22 first downs / Florida 14 first downs

Time Of Possession – Colorado St. 39:33 / Florida 21:27

Total Plays – Colorado St. 82  /  Florida 44

Total Yardage – Colorado St. 313  /  Florida 341

Turnovers – Colorads St. 3  /  Florida St. 1

The key to this game was that Florida scored a TD from a blocked punt and also returned a punt for a TD as well. This Gator squad packs very little bite. Pay Attention moving forward.

Louisville Vs. Wester Kentucky – This years edition of Bobby Petrino’s Cardinals are BAD!!  It couldn’t happen to a nicer gentleman! The Hilltoppers dominated this game in all facets on the field. The Hilltoppers dominated the total yardage by a margin of 428 – 292 and had a fist down advantage of 26 – 17!  Western Kentucky had a T.O.P. advantage by a margin of 35:00 to 25:00.  The Cardinals stole this game.

The Hilltoppers trailing 17-20, ended this game by turning the ball over on downs on their 2nd to last possession and on their last drive of the game the drove down to attempt a game tying FG only to miss it.  The Cards should’ve of lost to Indiana St. 2 weeks ago and defiantly this week to the Hilltoppers! Look for their wings to get clipped real soon, once conference plays starts.

Be sure to check out my 2 of 3 offers this weekend in both college and the NFL at Guaranteed or you won’t be charge!

Best, Kenny Schmitt