Kenny Schmitt NCAA Misleading Finals – Sept 26

Greetings My Friends,

The Tuesday edition of our newsletter will feature, what we call NCAA misleading final scores.  Remember their is much more to a game than the highlights, final score, & team rankings.  We dig into the meat of the game, we look at KEY PLAYS, Yards Per Play, Turnovers, & First Downs!  When handicapping football, their is much more than who’s facing each other on the gridiron!

One other note we want to STRESS, when it comes to handicapping and or wagering you have to take out your emotional trait from your inner self at that time. You have to become an UNBIASED individual with no distortion in your mind at all. This is true in all means of life, but especially IMPORTANT when wagering your hard earned MONEY!


COACHING MOVE OF THE SEASON

 

First things first, we have to give credit when credit is due.  I was completely SHOCKED when Brian Kelly pulled a Nick Saban last week against Wake Forest. What I’m referring to is he BENCHED staring QB Brandon Wimbush before the Wake Forest game in favor of Ian Book. I wish I would’ve known about this change as we would’ve played off on Notre Dame!  Well all Ian Book did was go out and score 5 TD’s (25-34-325) and take the Irish offense to another level. You have to think to yourself, why SO LONG as Ian Book has been the better QB since spring! Well when looking at the Irish at this point, remember BUYER BEWARE as this will be a very different Irish offense moving forward. Kudos to Brian Kelly for pulling the trigger! I know one of my female (A.S.) followers an alumnus of Notre Dame will be excited for her Irish moving forward!

 


NCAA MISLEADING FINALS

Tennessee Vs. Florida – Yes, the Gators blew out the Vols last Saturday. But don’t think all of sudden this offense is a juggernaut.  Once again the Gators benefited off 6 Tennessee t/o’s!! As we’ve stated last week, Feleipe Franks is an below average QB, here is his stat line from last week (9-18-172) and 104 yards of those 172 were on 2 pass plays! The Vols actually had the total yard advantage (387-369) as you can see the Gators tallied 47 points off only 369 yards of offense. But were +5 in the t/o category and the Gators are now +10 on the year. We’ll look to play against the Gators at the right spot this year. Let’s hope they upset the Bulldogs of Ms. St. this week and we’ll get tremendous value after that game moving forward.

Auburn Vs. Arkansas – Special teams, Special Teams, & Special Teams. The Hogs lost 34-3 on the scoreboard, strictly from SPECIAL TEAM blunders.  Auburn scored on a long punt return to set up a short field touchdown, Auburn blocked a punt to set up another short field touch down and also ran a kickoff back for 96 yards for another touchdown.  The Hogs were in the red zone three times only to come away with 3 points. If you look inside the numbers, the Hogs actually held the edge in total offense (290-225) and also matched first downs with Auburn as they both had 13 for the game. If you break this game down by yards per play the Hogs (4.14)Auburn (3.88)!  Also note the Tigers offense has been stagnate since they took a 21-13 against L.S.U. two weeks ago.  Don’t get me wrong, the HOGS are a very bad football team and probably have the worst special teams in the NCAA.  But this doesn’t bode well for the Auburn offense as their in a bad RUTT!!

Missouri Vs Georgia – The Tigers of Mizzou were dead the right side in this game. They played tooth and nail with the Bulldogs all game long. IF it wasn’t for the 1st half miscues the Tigers could’ve upset the Bulldogs. Take a look!

Georgia 64 fumble return for a touchdown.

Georgia blocked punt for touchdown.

Mizzou fumbled in Georgia territory.

Mizzou threw and int.!

Mizzou missed a FG!

The interior stats were basically dead even as the Bulldogs only had a 50 yard total offense advantage. The Tigers actually had +8 in the first down category and also ran 22 more plays than the Bulldogs.

U.T.E.P Vs. New Mexico St. – Don’t move up New Mexico St. (LOL) in your POWER RANKINGS, they’re still horrible and UTEP basically gave them this game. The Miners of UTEP actually outplayed the Aggies all game long and really dominated this game on the field. But it’s hard to over come giving a team two touchdowns.  The Aggies 1st score of the game was a punt return for a touchdown and their second score was a 55 yard fumble return, this accounted for 14 of their 27 points. Now, check this out the Miners held the T.O.P. by a margin of 41 minutes to 19 minutes!! This is unreal and they also out gained the Aggies on total offense by a margin of (429-311)! You cannot turn the ball over 3 times and allow a punt return for a touchdown and expect to win a game. We suggest to keep fading New Mexico St., once they return off their bye week.

Stay tuned to the ASA website for my weekly football offers. I’ll have a couple different winning options for you. Check back this weekend.

~ Kenny Schmitt