Greetings My Friends,
The Tuesday edition of our newsletter will feature, what we call NCAA misleading final scores. Remember their is much more to a game than the highlights, final score, & team rankings. We dig into the meat of the game, we look at KEY PLAYS, Yards Per Play, Turnovers, & First Downs! When handicapping football, their is much more than who’s facing each other on the gridiron!
One other note we want to STRESS, when it comes to handicapping and or wagering you have to take out your emotional trait from your inner self at that time. You have to become an UNBIASED individual with no distortion in your mind at all. This is true in all means of life, but especially IMPORTANT when wagering your hard earned MONEY!
NCAA Misleading Finals
Florida St. Vs. Samford – I know I’ve been hard on Willie Taggart, but it’s nothing personal. It’s the play on the field from this group. Most everyone sees they beat Samford by 10 and think, well FSU took it easy on Samford! But that’s nowhere the TRUTH! This is a very average football team, hence the love for them is strictly the reputation of Florida St.!
The Noles were out gained by a margin of 525-454, remember this is Samford! The Noles won the turnover battle by a margin of 5-1 (+4) and it took a 63 Int return at the 2:23 mark of the 4th quarter to win this one. Samford was driving to win or tie the game when that occurred! Also note after two games, this offense has 20 TFL’s (Tackles for Loss)! This O-Line is bad and this uptempo system is not working at all! The SHARPS have backed them in both games this year and are backing them once again the weeks as FSU opened up @ -1.5 and have been bet up to @ -3.5 as of this writing.
Texas A&M Vs. Clemson – Is Clemson the goods? I would say no from my POV! Well they get to the 4 team playoffs, most probably as the ACC is down in a big way this year. But this isn’t nowhere the Clemson team that beat Alabama once and could’ve won the first meeting as well. This offense is average and this HIGH PRAISE defense got shredded against Texas A&M. Yes the Tigers of Clemson won and all you heard was it was a tough road game from the pundits.
But in all reality, they were outplayed the entire game and very lucky to win. The Aggies under 1st year head coach Jimbo Fisher looked like a real football team. How in the HELL did Kevin Sumlin retain being head coach for 6 years! Well lets take a look at the meat and potatoes of this game. The Aggies were +11 in the first down category (25-14)! They also out gained Clemson by a margin of 501 – 413, The Aggies also had a 8 minute advantage in T.O.P. as well. When looking within the game, the difference was 2 missed FG’s and they lost the TO battle -2!
Ole Miss Vs. Southern Illinois – This one was much closer than the 76-41 final score. The Salukis lead 38-35 at halftime and only trailed 49-41 going into the 4th quarter. That’s when the wheels feel off in an blink of an eye! It all started with a pick 6, then another INT, and then a fumble return for TD. But if you look inside the game the Salukis had 29-26 (+3) first down advantage. The Rebels only out gained the Salukis by a margin of 646-629 in total offense. Here’s where it shows, how bad this Ole Ms. defense really is they lost the T.O.P. by a margin of (38:44 S.I. – 21:36 O.M.) -17 minutes! What’s Bama gonna do this week!
Nebraska Vs. Colorado – The Cornhuskers actually dominated this game from the opening kickoff. The Scott Frost era started off very disappointing. The Huskers lost their starting QB Adrian Martinez’s late in the 4th quarter. If you don’t know much about Martinez’s, I’d highly suggest to bookmark his name and watch this young man in coming years. He’s a LEGIT college QB and he could win the Heisman Trophy in a few years if he can stay injury free.
The Huskers dominated this game in all facets. The Huskers out-gained Colorado by a margin of 565 – 395! They also out-rushed the Buffs 329 – 44, the Huskers averaged 6.1 yards per carry to the Buffs 1.3 yards per carry. You won’t see another team win this year with this type of variance in the rushing category. The difference in this game via the scoreboard are as follows, NEB 3 TO’s – Colo TO’s 0 (-3), and NEB 4th down conversations attempts 0-3 and Colo was 2-3 on 4th down conversations. Along with Martinez being on the sidelines. What most don’t realize, is when you go for it on 4th down and you fail it’s just like another turnover!
We’ve been asked by several if we’re going to offer another 2/3 GUARANTEE PACKAGE this coming week? Yes we are and we’ll provide details in Thursday newsletter update. No newsletter for Hump day as we’re breaking down NFL game film from week 1. We hope you all are enjoying our newsletter and we’re looking forward to educating you all to become better handicappers.
Best, Kenny Schmitt