ASA’s NFL predictions AFC East – Sept 2018

ASA’s NFL NY Jets Win Bet- 2018

New York Jets – 2017 record (5-11) – ATS Record (9-6-1) – Over/Under Record (8-8)

  • Yards Per Game Differential -47 / Yards Per Play Differential -0.4
  • Point Differential -84 (11thin the AFC / 26th in the NFL)
  • Turnover Differential -4 (23rdin the NFL)

2018 ASA prediction – Play UNDER 6.5 Wins for the NY Jets

 

The Jets have won 5 games each of the last 2 seasons and while we expect them to be a bit improved this year, we do not see a full 2 game jump.  We think a 6-10 record is feasible but getting to 7-9 might be tough.  Josh McCown is slated to be the starting QB again this year and while he had a decent year in 2017, his career record as a starter is just 23-50.  His record as a starting QB over the last 4 seasons is a terrible 7-28.  McCown is simply keeping the seat warm for rookie draft choice Sam Darnold.  Don’t be at all surprised if the Jets struggle and then decide to give Darnold reps (or even in throw him in there as a starter) to get some experience moving forward.  With the roster he has around him, an inexperienced. Darnold will have a tough time winning games early in his career.  Unless you have a shut down defense, which the Jets do not, it’s tough to win games if you can’t score points.  The offense has scored only 17 PPG & 18 PPG the last two seasons and will most likely struggle again to put points on the board.  NY was favored in only 2 games last season and we have them potentially favored in only 4 games heading into the season.  If that holds true that means the Flyboys would have to win all of those games (4) AND pull at least 3 upsets to get over this number.  We’re not sold on Todd Bowles as a head coach and let’s face it, this organization hasn’t proven recently they can get it done as they have only one winning season in the last seven years.  We’ll lean UNDER this total.

 

Against The Spread Numbers

  • Jets have been tabbed an underdog in 32 of their last 33 meetings with New England.  Jets are just 8-25 SU (16-16-1 ATS) in those 33 meetings.
  • New York is 20-6-3 ATS (77%) when playing @ Miami since 1988.
  • Since the start of the 2014 season, the Jets are just 1-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less.

ASA’s NFL New England Patriots Win Bet- 2018

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New England Patriots – 2017 record (13-3) – ATS Record (11-5 ATS) – Over/Under Record (7-9)

  • Yards Per Game Differential +35/ Yards Per Play Differential +0.3
  • Point Differential +162 (1st in the AFC / 1st in the NFL)
  • Turnover Differential +6 (11th in the NFL)

2018 ASA prediction – Play OVER 10.5 Wins for the New England Patriots

There seem to be some potential problems in Patriotville with Belichick finally rubbing some players the wrong way including Tom Brady.  As of this writing TE Gronkowski’s status is still up in the air and the defense was as bad as it’s been in years last season.   However, until this team starts an obvious decline, we simply cannot expect them to win less than 11 games so OVER is the play.  In fact, the last time the Pats won fewer than 12 regular season games was way back in 2009.  Last year they were projected to win 12.5 games (they won 13) and this number is full 2 wins below that number.  As long as Brady stays healthy he will continue to win.  New England is in an awful division as we project the Jets & Bills to be two of the worst teams in the AFC.  The Fins will improve in our opinion but they are still most likely a team that finished below .500.  New England has an impressive 38-10 record vs the other AFC East teams (since 2010) and they’ll have a great shot at going 6-0 in the division this season.  That already gets them more than half way to this total win projection.  They should be favored in at least 14 of their 16 games this year (@ Jacksonville & @ Pittsburgh possibly not) which makes this 10.5 number look low.  Belichick will have his defense playing much better this year as they came on quite strong in the 2nd half of last season after a terrible start.  Again, we’ll call for at least 11 wins and another AFC East title for the Patriots.

Against The Spread Numbers

  • Not a bad idea to take the Pats off a SU loss.  Since 2000 they are 54-18 SU off a loss and 48-24 ATS.
  • The OVER has cashed in at a rate of 63-41-4 the last 100 times the Pats have been tabbed at home favorite.
  • If you can catch the Pats as an underdog (which won’t happen this year unless Brady gets injured), they are 14-5-1 ATS in that role the last 9 seasons.

ASA’s NFL Buffalo Bills Win Bet- 2018

Buffalo Bills – 2017 record (9-7) – ATS Record (9-6-1) – Over/Under Record (8-8)

  • Yards Per Game Differential -47 / Yards Per Play Differential -0.6
  • Point Differential -57 (8th in the AFC / 21st in the NFL)
  • Turnover Differential +9 (7th in the NFL)

2018 ASA prediction – Play UNDER 6.5 Wins for the Buffalo Bills

Last year the Bills win total was set at 6 and this year it’s gone up a half a game to 6.5.  After winning 9 games last season one would expect that this year’s total would be higher than where the oddsmakers have it set.  However, the Bills were very fortunate last season.  They were outgained AND outscored rather drastically yet still squeaked into the playoffs.  They were blown out by 20+ in 3 of their 7 losses and had only 2 wins vs teams that ended the season with more than 6 wins.  Their offense was among the least potent in the NFL averaging only 300 YPG and we don’t see that improving much if at all with QB Tyrod Taylor now gone.  AJ McCarron and Nathan Peterman will now battle for the starting QB spot and neither has done much of anything in their careers.  The defense will need to be awfully good in order for this team to get close to .500.  That defense has not finished in the top half of the league in YPG allowed in any of the last 3 seasons so we can’t expect them to make a huge jump here.  This team made a run with smoke and mirrors last year and we think that 6 wins would be the max for the Bills in 2018.

 

Against The Spread Numbers

  • Buffalo has been a terrible investment in their game following a SU win.  In fact, since 2008, after a Buffalo win, they are just 23-39-2 ATS (37%).
  • However, they have been very good coming off a SU loss with a spread mark of 70-54-4 in that spot since 2003.
  • Since 2004, the Bills have gone OVER the total in 13 of the 19 games they’ve been tabbed a road favorite (68% Over the Total).

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ASA’s NFL Miami Dolphins Win Bet 2018

Miami Dolphins – 2017 record (6-10) – ATS Record (5-9-2) – Over/Under Record (8-8)

  • Yards Per Game Differential -30 / Yards Per Play Differential -0.5
  • Point Differential -112 (14th in the AFC / 29th in the NFL)
  • Turnover Differential -14 (29th in the NFL)

2018 ASA prediction – Play OVER 5.5 Wins for the Miami Dolphins

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The Fins are a bit undervalued this year in our opinion.  Last year their win total was 7.5 and they only picked up 6 wins.  Remember that QB Tannehill was injured late in the 2016 season and didn’t play at all last year.  In 2016, Tannehill was starting to come into his own throwing for 3,000 yards and 19 TD’s in just 13 games before injuring his knee.  Miami was 8-5 in the games that Tannehill was the starting QB that year.  He’s back and seems to be fully healthy as of this writing in June.  The AFC East, after New England of course, looks pretty weak giving Miami a solid shot at 2nd place.  Buffalo lost QB Tyrod Taylor and will be starting AJ McCarron who’s only played in 11 games in his 3 year career.  The Jets might be starting a rookie at QB.  The last time Miami didn’t win at least 6 games was way back in 2007 when they went 1-15.  This number of 5.5 has them only ahead of Cleveland as far as projected wins.  We think it’s too low and with Tannehill back under center, 6 wins should be achievable.   This team won 6 games last year with a bad defense and with Tannehill on the shelf.  OVER is the play for the Dolphins.

 

Against The Spread Numbers

  • Since the start of the 2012 season, the Dolphins are 14-7-2 ATS as home underdogs
  • Since 2003, The Fins are a horrible 19-45-2 ATS (29%) as a home favorite. That is the worst mark in the NFL
  • Miami is just 3-13-3 ATS in home games vs the NYJ.

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