AFC South Prediction | Texans Under 9.5 wins | 9-4-24

Houston Texans – Under 9.5 Wins (+125) We think Houston is a bit overvalued after last year’s 10-7 season.  Their opening win total a year ago was 5.5 and now we’re sitting a full 4 games above that at 9.5 and plus juice on the Under. 

They were a bit fortunate last year to get to 10 wins.  Their point differential was just +24 for the season and they finished 7-3 in one score games so we can probably look for a regression there.  They also played one of the league’s easiest schedules in 2023 and that is being replaced with a much tougher slate in 2024 (7^th toughest SOS this season).  They face the NFC North & AFC East so @ Green Bay, vs Detroit, @ NY Jets, vs Buffalo, and vs Miami.  On top of that, their other opponents outside the AFC South include games @ Kansas City, @ Dallas, and home vs Baltimore.  Last year their 3 “swing games” so to speak were NY Jets, Denver and Atlanta so a huge upgrade this season in level of opponents.   

They also play 9 road games this season and they were just .500 away from home last year with tight 2 point wins @ Carolina (2 wins on the season), @ Atlanta (7 wins last season) and Houston was destroyed @ NY Jets with Zach Wilson at the helm. 

QB Stroud and HC Ryans had great first seasons but is the dreaded sophomore slump in store for the 2024 year?  Teams now have had a full season of film on Stroud so he won’t sneak up on anyone.  He’s also operating behind an offensive line that ranks near the bottom of the NFL going into this season per PFF (22^nd). 

Defensively Houston’s weak spot last year was vs the pass which is not where you want to be vulnerable in the current NFL.  They allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt (26^th) and opposing QB’s completed over 68% of their attempts on the Texans (30^th).  This year that shaky pass defense faces the likes of Mahomes, Prescott, Rodgers, Goff, Allen, Tagovailoa, Jackson, Love, and Lawrence to name a few. 

They were also very fortunate to be +10 in turnover margin last season (5^th best in the NFL) which will be very tough to match.  This Houston team won’t catch anyone by surprise this year and we have them tabbed for 9 wins so Under is the side here. 

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