NFL free pick Broncos vs Chiefs – Oct 12th 2023

ASA’s DENVER BRONCOS vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10.5) [47]

NFL PLAYER PROP BETS – OVER 26.5 RUSHING + RECEIVING YARDS – Jerick McKinnon – KC Chiefs

Denver’s defense is historically bad. Worse than the 2017 Browns team that went 0-16 and the 2008 Lions team that also went 0-16 through the first 5 games of the season.

The Broncos defense is allowing 187 rushing yards per game to opponents (32^nd)

They give up 5.9 yards per rush attempt (32^nd) and own the worst D in the league when it comes to defending running backs.

Kansas City is 13^th in rushing attempts per game at 27.6, and 9^th in average yards per rush attempt at 4.5.

We won’t get involved in the Chiefs featured running back Isiah Pacheco’s rushing props as his number tonight is 74.5 rushing yards which is significantly higher than what his rushing O/U has been all season in the low to mid-50’s.

What we will be on though is OVER 26.5 RUSHING + RECEIVING YARDS for Jerick McKinnon. He has totaled 22+ rushing/receiving yards in 3 of the Chiefs last four games. In fact, he’s had 18 or more receiving yards alone in 3 of his last four games. He’s been targeted by Mahomes 8 total times in the past four weeks and should get his fair share of looks in this game. We also like McKinnon anytime TD prop at +320.

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