ASAWINS NFL News & Notes – Nov 17th

JAGUARS – We faded Jacksonville on Sunday @ Indy as they were coming off a huge win vs Buffalo the week before and had been terrible on the road losing by an average of 14 PPG.  They got down 17-0 in the first quarter and it looked like the rout was on.  We were impressed with the way this team battled back in that game.  It was a perfect point to lay down and move on once they got down 17 points.  The defense has been the most impressive part of this team as of late.  They shut down the high potent Bills attack to just 6 points!  That’s a Buffalo offense that ranks 2^nd in the NFL averaging 31 PPG who turned around and put up 45 points on the Jets one week after not scoring a TD @ Jacksonville.  They held the Bills to just 4.5 YPP in that game a full 1.5 YPP lower than their season average.  They followed that up last week by holding a red hot Indianapolis offense to just 16 offensive points on 4.8 YPP.  The Colts had scored 30+ points in 4 straight games coming into Sunday.  This week the Jags will host San Francisco in a dangerous game for the Niners coming off a rivalry game vs the Rams on Monday night and then having to travel cross country.

TITANS – The Titans got it done again on Sunday squeaking by the Saints 23-21.  Tennessee is now 7-0 SU this season vs playoff teams from last year.  Oddly enough, they are 0-2 SU this year vs teams that were not in the playoffs last season.  Since their season opening loss to Arizona, the Titans have only 1 setback on their resume, an unexplainable 3 points loss to the Jets.   In Sunday’s win over New Orleans, the Titans were beat handily on the stat sheet (-1.5 YPP, -1.8 YPC, and -0.4 yards per pass attempt) yet found a way to win.  Despite their current 6 game winning streak, we have some concerns with their offense moving forward with RB Henry on the shelf.  Since losing Henry, been outrushed in 2 straight games and they are averaging only 67.5 YPG on the ground.  Since losing Henry, Tennessee has played two games, both wins vs Rams & Saints, and their offense has a total of 458 yards on 114 snaps in those games (just 4.0 YPP).  To put that in perspective the worst offense in the NFL is Chicago and they are averaging 4.7 YPP on the season.  It will be tough to keep winning if those offensive numbers continue.

BROWNS – This team is easily the most difficult for us to project from week to week.  How do you beat a solid Cincinnati team on the road 41-16 while averaging 7.8 YPP and then turn around the next week and get destroyed by New England 45-7 while averaging 3.7 YPP?  They are 5-5 ATS this year and their ATS wins have come by an average of 10 PPG while their ATS losses have come by an average of 16 PPG.  In other words as we said, they are all over the board with many games landing nowhere near the posted spread, win or lose.  The Browns with a lot of uncertainty on offense with QB Mayfield dealing with shoulder and knee ailments, RB Chubb still going through Covid protocol, RB Hunt out with a leg injury, WR Peoples-Jones dealing with a personal matter and WR OBJ out the door to the Rams.  Cleveland opened as a 10 point favorite vs Detroit this weekend which is rare territory for them.  They have been a double digit favorite once this season and once last season losing both ATS.  Prior to that this team was favored by 10 or more just 3 times since 1980! 

JETS – The NY defense has been absolutely obliterated over the last month or so.  What was once the strength of the team, the defense, is now a major weakness. They have allowed a ridiculous 175 points over their last 4 games alone (43.75 PPG).  According to ESPN that 4 game point total allowed was the 2^nd highest since the merger way back in 1970.  Offensively it looks like they may get staring QB Wilson back in the line up this week.  He’s been out for 3 games and his back up White, looked great in his first start throwing for over 400 yards and 3 TD’s in a 34-31 win over Cincinnati.  Now that teams have a bit of film on White, he has since struggled big time.  In the last 2 games White has completed 31 of his 55 attempts (56%) for only 346 yards with 1 TD and 4 interceptions.  This Sunday they host division rival Dolphins and the Jets are a 3-point home underdog

PANTHERS – Can the return of QB Cam Newton give this team a jumpstart on offense?  The Panthers have said he will take most of the 1^st team snaps in practice this week in preparation for him to start on Sunday @ home vs Washington and head coach Rivera who actually drafted Newton when he was at Carolina.  Newton took 10 snaps on Sunday in Carolina’s 34-10 upset win @ Arizona and had a part in 2 TD’s, throwing for one and running for one.  The Panthers defense is very good ranking 2^nd in YPG and YPP allowed.  If they can get their offense to be at least average, this can be a solid team.  Right now they rank 27^th in total offense, 30^th in YPP, 21^st in scoring, and 24^th in 3^rd down conversion rate.  Can Newton bring a big improvement to this offense?  Probably not a huge step up but he may bring some excitement and energy to that side of the ball at least in the short term.  You could see it last week when they dominated Arizona at +1.7 YPP, +2.1 yards per pass attempt, and +1.2 YPC.  Carolina is a 3-point favorite at home vs Washington on Sunday.

DOLPHINS – It looks like Miami is set to start Tua Tagovailoa at QB this weekend.  Tua was designated as the back up with an injured hand last Thursday at home vs Baltimore but head coach Flores decided to get him in the game in the 2^nd half with Miami up 6-3.  Tua threw for 158 yards in relief and scored a rushing TD in Miami’s 22-10 upset over Baltimore.   The Fins have won 2 straight after a  7 game losing streak and the defense has had a big part of that.  They have allowed just 19 points over their last 2 games vs Houston & Baltimore.  The week prior to that, Buffalo scored 26 on this defense but the final TD came late on an 11-yard drive after Miami turnover.  In the last 3 games this defense has allowed a total of 927 yards on 203 offensive snaps (4.5 YPP allowed).  Now we realize one of those games was vs Houston, one of the worst offenses in the NFL, but the other 2 were facing 2 of the best offenses in the NFL, Buffalo & Baltimore.  The Fins are favored at the Jets this weekend and they are just 1-4 ATS as a road favorite since the start of last season.

PATRIOTS – New England is playing as well as anyone in the NFL over the last 6 weeks or so.  They have won 5 of their last 6 games with their only loss coming by 6-points vs Dallas in OT in a game the Cowboys ran 32 more offensive plays!  Over their last 4 games the Pats have outscored their opponents 150 to 50 for an average final score of 37.5 – 12.5.  Believe it or not, New England now has the 2^nd best point differential in the NFL outscoring opponents by an average of 10 PPG.  Buffalo is the only team that sits above them in that category.  They are one of just four teams that rank in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense along with Buffalo, Arizona, and Dallas.  The Patriots head to Atlanta to face the Falcons on Thursday night.  New England is favored by 7 in that game.  It could be a dangerous game for the Pats facing an Atlanta team coming off a terrible performance vs Dallas.  They have been a road favorite of a TD or more just twice since the start of last season.  They struggled to beat Houston as an 8 point road chalk this year (won by 3) & had the same problem as a 7.5 point road favorite at NY Jets last year (won by 3).

PACKERS – Green Bay has now covered 9 consecutive games after losing their season opener @ New Orleans.  Their 9-1 ATS record is the best in the NFL ahead of Dallas who is 8-1 ATS.  While Aaron Rodgers and the offense get most of the publicity, the Green Bay defense has been playing lights out as of late.  They’re last 2 games they allowed KC to put up just 13 points and then they shutout Seattle 17-0 last Sunday.  It was the first time in his NFL career (150 games) that a Russell Wilson led offense failed to score a single point.  Over the last 7 games the Packers have allowed a total of 91 points (13 PPG) and they’ve held all 7 opponents to below their season average in scoring.  The Green Bay defense has moved all the way up to 3^rd in scoring defense and YPP allowed.  Because of that, Packer games are averaging just 39.6 total PPG which is the 2^nd lowest in the NFL.