We’re always wary of teams that are bad for a number of years and then make a big jump for one year. The Jags won only 3 games in 2016 and pushed that to 10 wins last season. Based on the overall numbers it was not a fluke as this team outgained and outscored teams with margins in those two categories among the best in the NFL. [KEEP READING for AFC South]
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ASA’s BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW – Northwestern vs Ohio State
OSU enters the Big Ten Championship game with an 11-1 overall record, 8-1 in the Big Ten. Their lone loss was a bad one as Purdue trounced the Buckeyes 49-20 back on October 20th. Last week they were a home underdog to arch rival Michigan for the first time since 2004. They didn’t look like the underdog on the field as they routed the Wolverines 62-39. The Michigan defense had allowed a TOTAL of 105 points in their 8 Big Ten games entering last week. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s MICHIGAN vs OHIO STATE PREVIEW
This one is for all the marbles in the Big Ten East. The winner moves on to play Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship game next Saturday. Both come into this game off less than stellar performances which was sort of expected given the magnitude of this one. It was evident early on that neither was fully focused on their opponents last week. [KEEP READING]
Point Train Thursday Preview – Tulane vs Houston
The Green Wave of Tulane takes their three-game winning streak to the Lone Star state this Thursday night to take on the Cougars of Houston. With both teams sitting at 4-2 in conference play and in a three-way tie with SMU for the west division lead in the American Athletic Conference, this game promises to be a good one. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – November 17
Sparty is heading into this game off a 26-6 home loss to Ohio State. The game was much closer than the 20-point margin however as the Buckeyes scored a TD on a fumble and recorded a safety. OSU was able to capitalize on 3 MSU turnovers which they turned into 17 of their 26 points. The Bucks led just 9-6 entering the fourth quarter and outscored the Spartans 17-0 in the final frame. Ohio State was +74 in total yardage, however they also ran 84 offensive plays to just 66 for Sparty. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – November 11
A quick commentary on the Buckeyes. There is something off with this team. They are nowhere near as good as recent Buckeye teams despite their 8-1 record. We’ve heard the team chemistry just isn’t a strength and it is starting to show on the field. There have been a few red flags over the last month with the most glaring coming in their 49-20 loss @ Purdue a few weeks ago. [KEEP READING]
Point Train Thursday Preview Texas Tech vs TCU – Nov 2nd
Friday Night in Charlottesville, Virginia will be electric as the Cavaliers welcome the Panthers of Pittsburgh to town in a battle for division supremacy. Virginia finds themselves in a way better position right now than most of the fanbase thought they would be to begin the year as the “Hoos” find themselves with a record of 6-2 overall and atop the ACC Coastal. The 25th ranked Cavaliers have had lots of success this season, stemming from the terrific play of junior quarterback Bryce Perkins. [KEEP READING]
KENNY SCHMITT NCAA MISLEADING FINALS – Oct 22nd
CENTRAL FLA Vs. EAST CAROLINA – What a horrible bad beat if you had East Carolina. Central Fla, sat their starting QB and was just on cruise control for this entire game. Their backup QB was 12/20 for only 69 yards. They didn’t even try to pass the ball down field all game long. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – Oct 27th
After back to back poor performances vs Ohio State & Iowa, the Hoosiers played very well last week. They caught Penn State in a vulnerable spot as the Nittany Lions were coming off down to the wire home loss to both Ohio State and Michigan State. It showed as PSU looked sluggish at best but still came away with the 33-28 win. The Hoosiers, now 1-5 in conference play, scored with just 49 seconds remaining to make it a 33-28 deficit. [KEEP READING]
Kenny Schmitt NFL Tutorial – Oct 19th
Last weeks tutorial, we spoke about the lowest scoring teams in the NFL. The Buffalo Bills were and still are the lowest scoring team in the NFL, they only managed 229 total yards and 12 first downs against Houston and they almost won the game. This week the Bills are on the road once again as they travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts and their depleted defense. Make note this is the Bills 4th road game in 5 weeks and they’ve only scored 26 points the past 3 weeks (0-13-13) “BuyerBeware”! We’re passing this game on our end as it’s too hard to lay 7.5 points with this Colts defense and also the Colts offense turns the ball over way too much to lay more than a TOUCHDOWN!!! [KEEP READING…]
ASA’s BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – Oct 20th
The Wolverines had a much anticipated night game in Ann Arbor last Saturday. They faced off against the Wisconsin Badgers and rolled to an easy 38-13 win. The line move last week was surprising to many as Michigan opened as a 7-point favorite and went off at -10. The move was correct as they dominated the Badgers to get their first really big home win in quite some time. In fact, it was Michigan’s first win over a ranked Big Ten opponent since October of 2016 when they beat this same Wisconsin team 14-7. [KEEP READING]
KENNY SCHMITT NCAA MISLEADING FINALS – Oct 15th
VIRGINIA TECH Vs. NORTH CAROLINA – This game was dominated on the field by the Tar Heels. One note early on in this report, is that Larry Fedora has got to go real SOON! This team is never prepared each week. It’s an embarrassing for this university.
The Tar Heels out gained the Hokies by a margin of 522 – 375 and they really dominated between the trenches as the Heels out rushed the Hokies by a margin of 235 – 154!! When you out rush your opposition by 81 yards, you normally win the game straight up around 80% of the time. UNC averaged 6.2 ypc and the Hokies only averaged 3.8 ypc and that’s a +2.4 ypc for UNC. We suggest you look to FADE the Hokies moving forward when they face a team that has a solid O-Line and running game. [KEEP READING…]
ASA’s 2018 NBA Future Wagers – Oct 15th
We’re in a minority here but we like UNDER 48.5 win LA Lakers and here’s why. A case can be made that the current Lakers roster is not drastically better than the Cavs lineup last year. If we compare PER or player efficiency ratings from last season we see some similarities. PER’s for each team starting with the Cavaliers top 7: K Love 22.44, Hood 14.38, Thompson 13.66, Hill 13.35, Nance 20.18, Clarkson 16.50 and Korver 13.41. Now the Lakers top 8: James 28.65, Ingram 13.9, Ball 12.53, Pope 13.22, McGee 22.39 (but played less than 10 minutes per game), Stevenson 12.47, Beasley 17.89, Rondo 15.28 and Kuzma 14.22. LeBron has surrounded himself with a cast of non-shooters and we don’t see that working well for him. Not to mention this train is sure to derail at some point with the ego’s of LBJ, Rondo, Stevenson, McGee and Beasley. [KEEP READING…]
KENNY SCHMITT NCAA MISLEADING FINALS – Oct 11th
CALIFORNIA Vs. ARIZONA – This game by far is MOST MISLEADING FINAL SCORE of the week. The Golden Bears of Cal, seem to be their worst enemy. They cannot get out of their own way. The Bears dominated the Wildcats of Arizona in all facets of the game, except where it counts SCOREBOARD. Take a look inside the numbers of this game. The Bears had a total yard advantage of 476 – 265 (+211)! The Bears also had 25 first downs to the Wildcats 13 (+12) and they also held the ball for 35 minutes to 25 for Arizona, which is +10 minutes in the T.O.P. category. [KEEP READING…]
Point Train Thursday Preview Texas Tech vs TCU – Oct 11th
This in-state matchup has favored TCU in recent history as Gary Patterson and TCU have won three of five career games against Texas Tech since Kliff Kingsbury took over the program in 2013. Although one-sided on paper, the Red Raiders won the last time they visited Fort Worth, escaping with a 27-24 victory in double overtime. [READ MORE…]
ASA’s BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – Oct 14th
The Badgers opened as 21.5 point favorites last week vs Nebraska however the line dropped throughout the week settling in at -17 to -18 at most spots. The game landed right in that range with Wisconsin winning 41-24. The Badgers dominated the ground game rolling up 370 yards on 48 carries (7.7 YPC). That was 260 yards more than the Huskers could muster on the ground and Jonathan Taylor had 221 yards on 9.2 YPC. [KEEP READING]
KENNY SCHMITT NFL TUTORIAL – Oct 7th
What a mess the NFL is through the 1st quarter of the season. Just ponder on this, the AFC North which is known as the BLACK & BLUE division are leading the NFL in giving up the most points to date as Pittsburgh, Cincy, & Cleveland all have allowed over 100 points scored against them. The Ravens have the best defense in the NFL and are not to be taken lightly moving forward, they also get a KEY ingredient coming back this week from suspension which is Jimmy Smith. This will lock down their secondary and they’ve only given up 65 points through 4 games which equates to 16 points per game. [KEEP READING…]
ASA’s BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – Oct 8th
The Hawkeyes come off a bye after losing at home 28-17 to Wisconsin two weeks ago. The game was played almost dead even stat wise with each team picking up 19 first downs and Wisconsin outgaining Iowa by just 11 yards. Iowa actually led the game 17-14 with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game but the Badgers scored a TD with 57 seconds remaining and another with 22 seconds remaining (after an Iowa interception) for the 11 point margin. [KEEP READING]
KENNY SCHMITT’S NCAA MISLEADING FINALS – Oct 4th
Notre Dame Vs. Stanford – It wasn’t the luck of the Irish on Saturday night. It was an ASS WHIPPING the Irish gave the Cardinal of Stanford. The Irish totally dominated this game and as we stated last week Buyer Beware moving forward on the Irish. If they go into Blacksburg and whip the Hokies, I cannot see how thy won’t go undefeated and make it into the NCAA Playoffs. We told you all about Ian Book, and what an encore performance he displayed against the Cardinal. His stat line as follows (24-33-278/4td) & (15/47 on the ground)! This TOTAL DOMINATION, take a look at the final numbers of the game. [KEEP READING…]
ASA – Is Roughing the QB roughing NFL Totals?
By ASA, Inc – Oct 2nd 2018
We’re four weeks into the regular season and much has been made of penalties in the NFL, namely the roughing the quarterback calls. So how has this heightened sensitivity around QB’s impacted Over/Under wagers and Totals in the NFL this season?
Let’s first examine points scored. In 2017 through the first four weeks of the season the average total points scored in an NFL game was 43.73 points per game. The yearly average points scored in 2017 ended up at 43.55PPG, which is slightly lower than the first four week average. Thus far in the first four weeks of 2018, the average points scored per game is a hair under 48 at 47.95PPG. That’s a jump of over 4-points per game compared to the first four games last season. [KEEP READING…]
KENNY SCHMITT’S NCAA MISLEADING FINALS – Sept 26th
COACHING MOVE OF THE SEASON
First things first, we have to give credit when credit is due. I was completely SHOCKED when Brian Kelly pulled a Nick Saban last week against Wake Forest. What I’m referring to is he BENCHED staring QB Brandon Wimbush before the Wake Forest game in favor of Ian Book. I wish I would’ve known about this change as we would’ve played off on Notre Dame! Well all Ian Book did was go out and score 5 TD’s (25-34-325) and take the Irish offense to another level. You have to think to yourself, why SO LONG as Ian Book has been the better QB since spring! Well when looking at the Irish at this point, remember BUYER BEWARE as this will be a very different Irish offense moving forward. Kudos to Brian Kelly for pulling the trigger! [KEEP READING…]
ASA’s BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – Sept 29
The Buckeyes were in a classic letdown spot last Saturday facing Tulane as a 37.5 point favored just one week after their big win over TCU. Despite the tough scheduling spot for OSU, they trounced the Green Wave 49-6 and getting the cover. They are now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with their line spread loss coming @ TCU by just a half point. Head coach Urban Meyer finished serving his 3-game suspension and was back on the sidelines for the first time this season. [KEEP READING]
Kenny Schmitt’s Thursday Tutorial – Sept 21st
What a first two weeks of the NFL, everyone has the L.A.Rams winning the Superbowl, but remember they’ve only faced and beaten two 0-2 teams in the Oakland Raiders and the Arizona Cardinals. It looks as they tower over their division. The Seattle Seahawks are a complete mess, no running game, no offensive line, and no skilled positions players on the outside for any defense to respect. The Seahawks have been gutted from player personnel through positional coaching positions as well. [KEEP READING…]
Kenny Schmitt’s NCAA MISLEADING FINALS – Sept 18th
Notre Dame Vs. Vanderbilt – The cliche we’ve all been hearing for our entire life the Luck Of The Irish, and boy have they been lucky the past two weeks. Just two weeks ago Ball St. pushed them all over the field and came up short on the scoreboard and how lucky were the Irish this week against Vandy! Well they were out played the entire game, but once again they won were it counts the scoreboard. Take a look below at the game stats. [KEEP READING…]
Tutorial Thursday – By Kenny Schmitt – Sept 13th
Our Thursday edition of our newsletter, we’re going to give you all some solid nuggets of information in the NFL that is key to handicapping each weeks scheduled games. This type of information you’ll see below is a much different approach than trends that many handicappers use and or bettors follow each week when wagering.
Wash Vs. Indy – Well the Skins come into this game after CRUSHING the Cardinals in the desert last Sunday, on the other hand the Colts come in off a home loss to the Bengals. This is there 1st of 5 roads games they will be playing in the next 7 weeks. One thing to note is the Andrew Luck is 11-5 as an underdog. On a coaching angel, note that Wash. D-Cord (Greg Manusky) was the D-Cord with the Colts during Luck’s tenure. One big concern from my POV, is the run game for the Colts. Last week they tallied 24 first downs, and only 4 were by rushing! [KEEP READING…]
ASA’s BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – Sept 15
To say the Buckeyes have been impressive in their first two games with head coach Urban Meyer serving his early season suspension. Meyer will miss this game as well before he is back on the sidelines at home vs Tulane. The Bucks should finally be tested this week after obliterating their first two opponents (Oregon State & Rutgers) by a combined score of 129-34. Ohio State continued their domination of Rutgers last week in their 52-3 win. [KEEP READING]
Kenny Schmitt’s misleading NCAA Finals – Sept 11th
The Tuesday edition of our newsletter will feature, what we call NCAA misleading final scores. Remember their is much more to a game than the highlights, final score, & team rankings. We dig into the meat of the game, we look at KEY PLAYS, Yards Per Play, Turnovers, & First Downs! When handicapping football, their is much more than who’s facing each other on the gridiron! [KEEP READING…]
Point Train – Boston College at Wake Forest Week III:
*Friday, 6:30PM ET – Time change due to Hurricane Florence*
Winston-Salem is the home of Wake Forest University who host the Eagles of Boston College at BB&T Field this Thursday night with Hurricane Florence looming. Both the Demon-Deacons and the Eagles hope to open up ACC conference play with a win and improve to 3-0 on the season. [KEEP READING…]
Point Train – SMU vs TCU Preview
September 7th, 2018
For 364 days of the year, the Dallas-Fort Worth area is for the most part very friendly when it comes to college football. The one day it is not is the day the football teams of Texas Christian University and Southern Methodist University meet on the field and battle for the Iron Skillet. This year’s edition comes to us from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas on Friday, September 7th. [KEEP READING…]
ASA’s NFL Predictions Entire NFC West – LA Rams Win Bet – 2018
2018 ASA prediction – Play UNDER 9.5 Wins for LA Rams
While the Rams had an outstanding 11 win season in 2017, we think they come into this year a bit overvalued. Their win total going into last year was set at 5.5 and now it’s a full 4 games higher at 9.5. The Rams offense made a ridiculous jump from dead last in the NFL in 2016 averaging 14 PPG to first in the NFL (basically tied with Pats and Eagles) at 29 PPG. While the offense will still be very good, we have to assume there will be a bit of a drop off after the huge jump last year. [KEEP READING entire NFC West]
ASA’s NFL Predictions Entire NFC East – Philadelphia Eagles Win Bet – 2018
2018 ASA prediction – Play UNDER 10.5 Wins for the Philadelphia Eagles
We often like to look toward the UNDER the year after a team has a break out type season. They are often over valued heading into the next year. We feel that might be the case here with the Eagles. Even though they won 13 games last year, the oddsmakers have their total set at 10.5. Most will look at that number and automatically take the OVER. Not us. [KEEP READING entire NFC East]
ASA’s NFL Predictions Entire NFC South – New Orleans Saints Win Bet – 2018
2018 ASA prediction – Play OVER 9.5 Wins for the New Orleans Saints
Heading into last year our main question in regards to the Saints was can they stop anybody? We knew the offense would be good and they were averaging an NFL best 6.3 YPP and 28 PPG. The defense made a huge jump allowing 21 PPG which was a full TD less per game than the previous season. They have one of the better pass rushers in the league with Cameron Jordan and the defensive backfield improved drastically last year. [KEEP READING entire NFC South here]
ASA’s NFL Predictions Entire NFC North – Minnesota Vikings Win Bet – 2018
2018 ASA prediction – Play OVER 10 Wins for the Minnesota Vikings
We think the Vikings are the top team in the division and 10 wins might just be their floor. Is this team a full 4 wins worse than last year? We doubt it and that’s what it would take to finish under this number. They made an upgrade at QB with Kirk Cousins coming in from Washington. We realize Case Keenum had a career year but that’s just what it was and they caught lightning in a bottle with him last year. [KEEP READING entire NFC North here]
ASA’s BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – Sept 8
Duke +3 @ Northwestern, Saturday at 12 PM ET
The Blue Devils had an impressive revenge win last weekend beating Army 34-14. After the Cadets topped Duke 21-16 last year, the Devils put a heavy emphasis on this game and played well. Most impressive was their rush defense as they held Army to just 168 yards rushing on 47 carries (just 3.6 YPC). What made the defensive effort even more imposing was the fact that Army led the nation in rushing last year averaging 362 YPG. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s NFL Predictions Entire AFC West – Oakland Raiders Win Bet – 2018
2018 ASA prediction – Play UNDER 8.5 Wins for the Oakland Raiders
This is a tough call for us but we’ll lean ever so slightly to the UNDER. We look for Oakland to finish 8-8 which would keep them under this number by a half game. We anticipate new head coach Jon Gruden will be an upgrade but it may take a year to get this team acclimated to his ways. [KEEP READING for AFC West]
ASA PREVIEW: Saturday, Aug 25th, 7:30PM ET
Hawaii @ Colorado State (-14) 
The Hawaii Rainbows travel to the mainland to face Mountain West rivals Colorado State in an early season conference clash. This game features a pair of teams in rebuilding mode as both have significant turnover from a season ago. These two programs are picked to finish in the bottom half of the conference, but Colorado State has a much better shot to finish the year with a winning record under head coach Mike Bobo, who has led the Rams to three straight 7-6 seasons. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s NFL Predictions Entire AFC East – New England Patriots Win Bet – 2018
2018 ASA prediction – Play OVER 10.5 Wins for the New England Patriots
There seem to be some potential problems in Patriotville with Belichick finally rubbing some players the wrong way including Tom Brady. As of this writing TE Gronkowski’s status is still up in the air and the defense was as bad as it’s been in years last season. [KEEP READING for entire AFC East]
ASA’s NFL prediction Entire AFC South – Jacksonville Jaguars Win Bet
2018 ASA prediction – Play OVER 9.5 Wins for the Jacksonville Jaguars
ASA’s NFL Predictions – Entire AFC North – Pittsburgh Steelers
2018 ASA prediction – Play UNDER 10.5 Wins for the Pittsburgh Steelers
We took the Steelers Over 10.5 last season but this year we’re leaning Under. This team is getting older at key positions, especially QB where Roethlisberger is entering his 15th season. He’s now missed 7 games over the last 3 seasons due to injury and the physical pounding is taking its toll. We’d be shocked if he lines up under center for every game this year. [KEEP READING for entire AFC North]
Early College Football Line Movement: By Scott Rickenbach
Coming at you from the summer desert heat of Las Vegas but looking forward to the upcoming football season. It is June 4th, 2018 and that means we are only a little over a month away from NFL Training Camps opening up followed by the Preseason NFL campaign kicking off in two months from now. Now that we are only a little over 2 and ½ months from the College Football Season kicking off, it is certainly not too early to talk about some early season line movement that happened within the past 2 weeks [KEEP READING]
Canadian Football League (CFL) East Division Preview: By Scott Rickenbach
Hamilton Tiger-Cats – 10 wins projected. 6-12 last season. The big splash in the off-season just recently occurred with Johnny Manziel being signed by Hamilton. The Ticats should prove to be set at the pivot position since they already have Jeremiah Masoli under center. In addition to Manziel bringing some NFL skill sets to the CFL game, the coaching of the Tiger-Cats certainly has influence from south of the border as well. Head coach June Jones is a top offensive mind and now don’t be surprised if the defense shows vast improvement too. [READ MORE…]
NBA FINALS SERIES BET – WARRIORS IN EXACTLY 5 GAMES!
The pundits keep telling us that LeBron has carried this Cavs team on his back to the Finals again but we should really consider who he’s beat to get here. LeBron has now made 8 straight, and nine overall Finals appearances but has been a series dog in seven of those. That tells you just how watered down the Eastern Conference has been since he joined the league and how it’s translated to him getting to this point every year. [KEEP READING…]
Michael Jordan and LeBron James debate – who’s the GOAT?
The current generation is clearly going to argue that LeBron gets the nod but anyone that’s watched the NBA for the past four decades knows it’s MJ and it’s not as close as you might think. In the current NBA landscape LeBron is getting rave reviews for his current playoff prowess and rightfully so. His overall numbers have been fantastic and he’s hit two game winning shots in the first two rounds. Ironically, those two shots are now tabbed two of his five greatest game winning makes of all time. That actually helps in our measurement with MJ and who’s the GOAT. Consider the circumstances of those two game winners. [KEEP READING…]
ASA’s 2018 KENTUCKY DERBY DOINGS REPORT
Below is a quick report from our Horse Capper who is on site in Louisville for the Kentucky Derby – Thanks, ASA Inc.
Well the big guns have wrapped up their main work for next week Kentucky Derby. I’ve listed the works with the spits and also have provided the video for you all to view yourself or reference back top as the week looms up on us. Their are several that have tipped their hand in the AM as of now and their a few you can toss out like a bad piece of meat. This field is extremely talented and you can make a case for 6 of them to be wearing the blanket of roses. [KEEP READING]
Does defense win NBA Championships?
So you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be, and rule out the most obvious media darling pretender.
The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season. The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.087 points scored/allowed per possession or 108.7 per 100 possessions. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s NHL Playoff Predictions – Who Wins the Stanley Cup?
Take the Tampa Bay Lightning at +500 – With Steven Stamkos expected back for the start of the playoffs, the Bolts are in much better shape than they were in the spring of 2016 when he missed 16 of the 17 games in the post-season and TB was ousted in the Eastern Conference Finals. The last time Stamkos was available for a full post-season was 2015 and that is when they made their run to the Stanley Cup Finals where they lost to Chicago in 6 games. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s 2018 MLB WIN PROJECTIONS
OVER 92.5 WINS for the Washington Nationals
The Nationals play in a division they should dominate which, of course, goes a long way toward going “over” on a win total. The Nats again will take advantage of being in the NL East with the Marlins, Braves, Phillies, and Mets. Out of those 4 teams it is not inconceivable that they all finish with a losing record. Miami has averaged 73 wins the past 5 seasons, Atlanta has averaged 71.5 wins the past 4 seasons. KEEP READING
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