TEXAS RANGERS – Under 68 Wins
The Rangers have serious problems in the pitching department entering the 2021 season. They have just 3 regular starting pitchers, and not good ones for that matter, and will piece the other 2 starters together with multi inning relief guys. Their top starter is Kyle Gibson who was 2-6 last year with an ERA 5.35 and a WHIP of over 1.50. The other 2 are Koehi Arihara (played in Japan last season) and Mike Foltynewicz who had an ERA of over 16.00 last season. Might just be the worst starting rotation in the big leagues. Their top starter from last season, Lance Lynn, has moved on to the White Sox and closer Leclerc will have Tommy John surgery and is out for the season. All of this from a team that was 22-38 in last year’s shortened season. The Rangers are in a very tough division with 3 teams projected to win 84 or more games (Houston, LA Angels, and Oakland). Besides the AL West, only the NL East and AL East can claim 3 teams predicted in the mid 80’s or better. So if the pitching staff is poor, they better have a very good lineup if they want to get anywhere close to 70 wins this season. Not happening. We consider their lineup one of the worst in the Majors with a very poor .285 on base percentage last season. The only team that was worse in that category in 2020 was the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Rangers don’t have a single player in their projected starting lineup with a career batting average above .286 and 7 of the 9 regulars sit at .250 career BA’s or lower. This team is destined for last place in the AL West and low to mid 60’s win total at best. Also remember, UNDERS may have some value this year as teams are slated to play 162 games but with Covid who knows if games will be missed. If so, many sportsbooks are setting 150 to 155 total games played for the minimum to cash on season total wagers. So if there are some teams that miss a few games or more, the value on the UNDER is accentuated.