New York Giants Over or Under 9 wins – By ASA

New York Giants – 2016 record (11-5) – 2nd in the NFC East

  • Off YPG – 330.7 (25th) – Def YPG – 339.7 (10th)
  • Points scored 19.4 (26th) – Points allowed 17.8 (2nd)

2017 Total Win Analysis

2017 ASA prediction – Play UNDER 9 Wins for the NY Giants

Not only do the Giants play a tough schedule this year (ranked 8th in the NFL in strength of schedule) they play a whopping 4 games versus teams coming off a bye week.  There opening month and a half schedule is as tough as any.  They play 6 games before their bye on October 29th and 4 of those games are on the road.  Their 2 home games during that stretch are both against playoff teams from last year (Detroit & Seattle).  Their road tilts during that opening stretch are @ Dallas, @ Philadelphia, @ Tampa, and @ Denver.  We wouldn’t be surprised if they went into their bye week with a 2-4 record.  A 1-5 mark isn’t out of the question and 3-3 might be best case scenario.  Anything below .500 over the first 6 weeks would make it tough to top 9 wins for the season.  New York finished 11-5 last year but they were fortunate to do so with a number of down to the wire wins (7 of their 11 wins came by less than a TD).  Even though they were a full 6 games above .500, their point differential was only +26 which was the third best in their division and just 12th best in the NFL.  Surprisingly, this team really struggled offensively and the defense carried them.  The defense took such a huge jump last year allowing just 19 PPG after giving up nearly 28 PPG a year earlier.  We’re not sure they can sustain that in 2017 and the offense relies too heavily on QB Eli Manning with no running game to support him (29th in the NFL averaging only 87 YPG).  A step back is almost a given this year for the Giants.  We see 9-7 as their ceiling so we like the UNDER here.

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Against The Spread – 9-6-1 ATS record / 4 Overs, 12 Unders

  • Since 2006, the Giants have the 2nd best ATS road record in the entire NFL at 53-37-3. Only the Patriots are better.
  • New York has the 3rd best spread record in the NFL since 2005 when facing NFC teams. They are 85-64-5 ATS against conference teams
  • The Giants & Cowboys went UNDER the total in both meetings last year. However leading up to last season these two NFC East rivals had gone OVER the total in 15 of their previous  19 meetings averaging nearly 54 PPG over that span
  • The Giants & Redskins have gone UNDER the total in 14 of their last 20 meetings averaging just 36 PPG in those meetings