Dallas Cowboys – 2016 record (13-3) – 1st in the NFC East
- Off YPG – 376.7 (5th) – Def YPG – 343.9 (14th)
- Points scored 26.3 (5th) – Points allowed 19.1 (5th)
2017 Total Win Analysis
2017 ASA prediction – Play UNDER 9.5 Wins for Dallas Cowboys
Things that make you go Hmmm? Dallas won 13 games last year with a rookie QB and they were the talk of the league for much of the season. So now the oddsmakers set their total wins at 9.5? As most will look at this and immediately take the OVER, where this number is set makes us lean UNDER. QB Dak Prescott was great last year but took many by surprise. Now with a full year of film on him, expect defensive coordinators to adjust and Prescott to take a step back in 2017. The guy threw 4 interceptions the entire season! That number will absolutely rise this year. Defensively the Boys were a middle of the pack team in total defense yet allowed only 19 PPG. In other words, the yardage they allowed should have actually resulted in higher PPG allowed numbers as well. We think that catches up with them this season. A close look at last year’s schedule reveals that Dallas had just a 3-3 record vs other playoff teams. That included a home playoff loss to Green Bay. They have a tougher slate this year which includes 3 sets of back to back road games. Dallas could actually get off to a slow start as they start the year vs the Giants (lost both games to NY last year), @ Denver, @ Arizona, vs the Rams, and vs the Packers. That gives them four losable games in their first five. We just feel a lot went right last year for this team to get to 13-3 and we foresee a 9-7 type season in 2017.
Against The Spread – 10-6 ATS record / 6 Overs, 10 Unders
- Dallas is consistently one of the more over valued teams in Vegas. In fact, since 2010, they have THE WORST record in the NFL as a favorite at just 23-43-1 (35%)
- They also have the worst spread record in the NFL at home since 2010 with just 20 covers in their last 59 home games (35%).
- If favored at home, it gets even worse for Dallas where they have a spread record of only 12-30 ATS which is just 28%
- However, if you can catch Dallas as a home underdog, they are very profitable with a 31-16-1 spread record since 1990 which is a 66% success rate