2017 ASA NFL Projections – San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers  – 2016 record (2-14) – 4th in NFC West

  • Off YPG – 308.1 (31st) – Def YPG – 406.4 (32nd)
  • Points scored 19.3 (27th) – Points allowed 30.0 (32nd)

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2017 Total Win Analysis

2017 NFL Helmets - NinersASA prediction – Play UNDER 4.5 Wins for San Francisco 49ers

Despite a new coach and new QB, we expect the Niners to be one of the NFL’s worst again this season.  We have them as an underdog in 14 of their 16 games and only a slight favorite @ home vs the Rams and @ home vs the Jags.  We project they will be at least a full TD underdog in 8+ games this year.  San Fran was 2-14 last year and it wasn’t as if they were close to turning the corner with 9 of those losses coming by at least 10 points.  Their only two wins came vs the hapless Rams.  The schedule doesn’t set up well this year with a tough start (home vs Carolina and @ Seattle) and includes 3 straight road games in October @ Arizona, @ Indy, and @ Washington.  While QB Brian Hoyer will be an upgrade for San Francisco, a similar team (the Bears), brought him in last year to try and resurrect their fortunes and he responded with a 1-5 record in his 6 starts.  While the offense will struggle again, the defense allowed more points than any team in the NFL last season.  Total rebuild here and we like the UNDER.

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Against The Spread – 5-11 ATS record / 10 Overs, 6 Unders

  • The last 3 seasons the Niners are only 17-29-2 ATS (37%). Only the Titans are worse.
  • San Fran is an imperfect 0-8 ATS the last 8 times they’ve been tabbed a favorite (2-6 SU record in those games – dating back to 2014).
  • When playing other teams from the NFC West, the 49ers have been an UNDER play. Since 2006 they have had 39 UNDERS, 27 OVERS, & 1 tie vs division opponents.
  • The UNDER is 18-6 the last 24 times that San Francisco has been tabbed as a favorite.

 

  
 
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