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Does defense win NBA Championships?
So you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be, and rule out the most obvious media darling pretender.
The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season. The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.087 points scored/allowed per possession or 108.7 per 100 possessions. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s NHL Playoff Predictions – Who Wins the Stanley Cup?
Take the Tampa Bay Lightning at +500 – With Steven Stamkos expected back for the start of the playoffs, the Bolts are in much better shape than they were in the spring of 2016 when he missed 16 of the 17 games in the post-season and TB was ousted in the Eastern Conference Finals. The last time Stamkos was available for a full post-season was 2015 and that is when they made their run to the Stanley Cup Finals where they lost to Chicago in 6 games. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s 2018 MLB WIN PROJECTIONS
OVER 92.5 WINS for the Washington Nationals
The Nationals play in a division they should dominate which, of course, goes a long way toward going “over” on a win total. The Nats again will take advantage of being in the NL East with the Marlins, Braves, Phillies, and Mets. Out of those 4 teams it is not inconceivable that they all finish with a losing record. Miami has averaged 73 wins the past 5 seasons, Atlanta has averaged 71.5 wins the past 4 seasons. KEEP READING
ASA’s Big Ten Football Experts – Big Ten Championship Preview
OHIO STATE (-6) vs WISCONSIN – Saturday at 8:00 PM ET
OHIO STATE – A struggling Michigan offense with serious problems at QB gave OSU all they could handle last Saturday. John O’Korn got the start under center for the Wolverines as recent starter Brandon Peters was out with a head injury. Despite O’Korn completing barely over 50% of his passes in the game and missing a number of open receivers, Michigan jumped out to a 14-0 lead and the Buckeyes didn’t take their first lead until 1:34 remaining in the 3rd quarter [KEEP READING]
ASA’s Big Ten Football Experts – Ohio State vs Michigan Preview
OHIO STATE (-12) @ MICHIGAN – Saturday at 12:00 PM ET
OHIO STATE – The Buckeyes have already won the Big Ten East clinching their spot in the Big 10 Championship game a week from today in Indianapolis vs Wisconsin. They have an outside shot at making the College Football Playoff, longshot at best, but need a number of things to fall their way and probably need to win convincingly here and next week. OSU destroyed Illinois last week 52-14 but failed to cover the lofty 41 point spread. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s Big Ten Experts Football Report – Nov 18
MICHIGAN @ WISCONSIN (-7.5) – Saturday at 12 PM ET
Since getting rocked by Penn State 42-13, the Wolverines have turned it around winning 3 straight. They were obviously expected to win playing lower tier Big Ten teams Rutgers, Minnesota, and Maryland and the Wolverines were favored by 14+ in each of those 3 games. Last week while the scoreboard said Michigan won going away 35-10 @ Maryland, the stat sheet told a different story. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s Big Ten Experts Football Report – Nov 11
IOWA @ WISCONSIN (-12) – Saturday at 3:30 PM ET
Wow. Sure Iowa caught Ohio State in a great spot for a letdown coming off their big PSU comeback win, but 55-24? Nobody saw that coming. Entering last week’s game, the Hawkeye offense had topped 19 points only once in their previous 5 conference games. The only team they looked good offensively against was Illinois who is the worst team in the Big Ten. Take that game out and Iowa had averaged just 14 PPG. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s Big Ten Experts Football Report – Nov 4
PENN STATE (-9) @ MICHGAN STATE – Saturday at 12:00 PM ET
Penn State continues their brutal three week stretch with a game @ Michigan State this Saturday. After beating Michigan at home and then losing a heart breaker @ Ohio State last week, how much can this team have left in the tank? Despite last Saturday’s tight outcome with OSU winning 39-38, PSU was thoroughly outplayed on the stat sheet. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s Big Ten Experts Football Report – Oct 28
PENN STATE @ OHIO STATE (-6.5) – Saturday at 3:30 PM ET
The Nittany Lions were being questioned as to how good they really might be heading into last week’s game vs Michigan. After a fairly weak non-conference schedule PSU had played Indiana, Iowa, and Northwestern in Big Ten play and those teams have a combined 3-9 conference record. Michigan was their first “real” test and the passed with flying colors. The Lions were in a good spot coming off a bye and playing a game they had been waiting for since last October when they were destroyed @ Michigan. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s Big Ten Experts Football Report – Oct 21
MICHIGAN @ PENN STATE (-10) – Saturday at 7:30 PM ET
Michigan’s offense continues to sputter as they tallied only 329 total yards vs Indiana last week and that was in a game that went to OT! Take away the 25-yards they had in OT and the Wolverines put up only 304 yards on 63 plays (4.8 yards per play) in their 27-20 win over Indiana. They haven’t topped 360 yards of total offense in a game since facing Cincinnati way back on September 9th. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s NBA Central Division Win Totals – Oct 18
Indiana Pacers (OVER 30.5) Indiana was just below league averages in terms of both offensive and defensive efficiency which was good enough to earn the 7th seed in the East with a 42-40 record. But gone from last years roster is Paul George, who led the team in scoring and steals per game along with the man who led them in assists, George Teague. They added Victor Oladipo (16PPG, 2.6APG) and Domantas Sabonis in the trade with the Thunder and brought in Darren Collison (4.6 assists per game and 13.2PPG for the Kings last year) so it’s not like the cupboard is bare. Third year player Myles Turner will become the focal point of this team moving forward and he’s not a bad option to build your team around. Turner was in elite company as a 20 year old last year to average more than 14PPG, 7RPG and 2BPG. Only Anthony Davis, Chris Webber, Kevin Garnett and Shaq have done it before in the NBA. Thaddeus Young is also a serviceable power forward who averaged 11PPG and 6.1RPG. We feel the oddsmakers have over-adjusted this win total and feel the sum parts can replace George and Teague’s production. Our favorite Over bet is the Pacers to win more than 31 games. [KEEP READING…]
ASA’s BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – Oct 14
PURDUE @ WISCONSIN (-16.5) – Saturday at 3:30 PM ET
The Boilers coming off a bye picked up a big home win last Saturday over Minnesota. While the final score was 31-17, it was much closer than that. Purdue actually trailed 17-16 with under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game. A 12-yard TD run with just over 1:00 minute remaining (plus 2-point conversion) and a 76-yard pick 6 with just 10 seconds left made it a 14-point final margin. It was a game that saw an hour and 28 minute weather delay in the 4th quarter. It was also a game that was dominated by Purdue on the stat sheet. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s NBA ATLANTIC DIV TOTAL WIN BETS – Oct 6
Boston Celtics (OVER 54) The Celtics made some bold moves in the offseason by adding All-Stars Kyrie Irving (Cavs) and Gordon Hayward (Jazz) to a team that won 53 regular season games a year ago. In addition to those two, don’t forget about another other key piece in Marcus Morris (14PPG, 4.6RPG) who came over from Detroit. This is the best young starting 5 in the East but depth could be a concern late in the season and the playoffs. If you’re a basketball purist then you know just how great of a coach Brad Stevens is and he’ll have these Stars on the same page early on. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – Oct 6
MICHIGAN STATE @ MICHIGAN (-13.5) – Saturday at 7:30 PM ET
Sparty bounced back nicely last week and topped Iowa in their Big Ten opener after getting whipped on the scoreboard by Notre Dame a week earlier. MSU topped the Hawkeyes 17-10 scoring all 17 of their points in the first half. That included two TD’s in the first quarter and 121 of the Spartans 300 total yardage came in that first quarter. MSU had only 4 second half possessions and those included a missed FG, getting shut out on downs at the Iowa 30 yard line, and a punt from the Iowa 40 yard line. So they did have chances to extend the margin and put points on the board in the 2nd half but didn’t take advantage of them. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – Sept 30
NEBRASKA (-6.5) @ ILLINOIS – Friday at 8:00 PM ET
The Huskers have had a tumultuous season thus far to say the least. On the field they struggled to get by Arkansas State at home in their opener, lost a close game @ Oregon despite getting outgained by 200 yards, lost at home to Northern Illinois with help from two Tanner Lee pick 6’s, and then weren’t overly impressive in a 27-17 win over a Rutgers team that has won a grand total of one game in the last 370 days! [KEEP READING]
ASA’s BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – Sept 23
MICHIGAN (-10) @ PURDUE – Saturday at 4:00 PM ET
The Wolverines are now 3-0 but have had quite the struggle offensively. They have had the ball inside the red zone (inside 20 yard line) 10 times in 3 games this year and scored a grand total of 1 TD on those possessions. Their 5.9 yards per play ranks them 8th in the Big Ten in that category. Their QB Wilton Speight ranks dead last in the Big Ten averaging only 190 YPG passing (only QB’s that average 15 passing attempts per game included). [KEEP READING]
ASA’s BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – Sept 16
Wisconsin (-16.5) @ BYU – Saturday at 3:30 PM ET
After destroying Utah State 59-10 to open the season, Wisconsin struggled a bit through last Saturday’s win over Florida Atlantic. The Badgers, a 34.5 point favorite, led 24-14 and limped to a 31-17 win. That was against an FAU team that lost 42-19 a week earlier to Navy AND were dealing with Hurricane distractions. Wisconsin did dominate the stats (+316 total yardage differential) but looked shaky at times offensively. They had 7 offensive drives of 5 plays or fewer that ended in a punt or a turnover. The offense put the defense in some bad spots as well as FAU’s two TD drives consisted of 5 plays & 2 plays. e look at the NFL games from this past weekend we can’t help but notice a few stats that stand out and make us go hmmm. We want to share some of those insights with you each week following the games. [KEEP READING]
ASA’s NFL MONDAY MORNING MUSING WEEK 1
As we look at the NFL games from this past weekend we can’t help but notice a few stats that stand out and make us go hmmm. We want to share some of those insights with you each week following the games.
- The Unders were 10-3 on the week
- Underdogs 7-6 ATS
- Teams that won the T.O. battle 8-0 ATS
- Dogs of 6+ points were 4-1 ATS
Favorite stat of the Week: The NY Mets and Yankees combined scored more runs/points than the Jets and Giants combined on Sunday!
Chiefs vs Patriots – Straight up dog winner with KC and Over the total of 47.5 points. Nobody would’ve predicted the Chiefs Alex Smith having a QB ratings of 91.8 to Pats Tom Brady’s 34.3. KC was 23rd in the NFL a season ago in passing yards per game at 229.8 while the Patriots were 4th at 284.4PYPG. [KEEP READING]
BIG TEN FOOTBALL REPORT – Sept 9th
Oklahoma @ Ohio State (-7.5) – Saturday at 7:30 PM ET – While both teams are very talented on both sides of the ball, one might consider this a potential coaching mismatch. The Sooners Lincoln Riley is the youngest head coach in the FBS and will be on the sidelines for just the 2nd time in his career as a head coach. Last week was this first game as a head coach and it was a great debut to say the least. OU overwhelmed UTEP in a 56-7 win. [KEEP READING]
BIG TEN FOOTBALL OPENING WEEKEND – ASA’s Take on the Games!
Ohio State (opened -20.5, currently -20.5) @ Indiana – This is a very rare conference opener during the first week of the season. Our database goes all the way back to 1980 and OSU has NEVER been an underdog in this series. They are 30-2-1 the last 33 meetings. However, IU has given this Buckeye team fits as of late covering 6 straight by an average margin of 13.1 PPG. Last year OSU trailed Indiana 17-13 at home late in the 3rd quarter before pulling away for a 38-17 win. The Bucks return 15 starters including QB JT Barrett and a very experienced offensive line. [KEEP READING]
2017 ASA prediction – Play UNDER 4.5 Wins for the Cleveland Browns
Have the Browns improved enough to jump a full 4 wins in 2017? Not in our opinion. This team had only 1 win last year and we don’t see them getting to 5 wins this season. This franchise has THE WORST record in the NFL since 2010 with 29 wins & 83 losses. That’s an average of just 4 wins per season. There is a solid chance they will be underdogs in every game this season. They do have a chance to be small favorites at home vs Jacksonville or the NY Jets but that’s it. [KEEP READING]
2017 ASA Prediction – Over or Under 8.5 wins Cincinnati Bengals
We’re not big fans of QB Andy Dalton and with him under center, we simply think the Bengals will underachieve. They will most likely improve a bit on last year’s 6-9-1 mark but we don’t see this team getting to 9 wins. Their defense was solid, but offensively with Dalton running the show, they simply aren’t very good. He will be operating behind an offensive line that lost arguably their 2 best players in the off-season with Whitworth going to the Rams and Zeitler to the Browns. [KEEP READING]
2017 ASA Prediction – Play OVER 10.5 Wins for the Pittsburgh Steelers
This one was a tough call as we think this number of 10.5 is set exactly where it should be. However we have to lean OVER here and we expect the Steelers to get to 11 wins again in 2017. They finished 11-5 last year and that was with Roethlisberger sitting out 2 games due to injury. Big Ben’s health is obviously a key to this selection. He needs to stay on the field and with his age and the beating he takes, that is not guaranteed. [KEEP READING]
2017 ASA Prediction – Play OVER 9 Wins for Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore has been one of the more consistent franchises in the NFL winning at least 8 games in 8 of the last 9 seasons. Last year they finished 8-8 and we expect a jump to at least 9 wins this year. This is a team that outgained their opponents by 26 YPG last year and outscored their opponents on the season. They only lost two games all season long by more than 7 points. Five of their eight losses came at the hands of playoff teams and in three of their losses they led with 2:15 or less remaining in the game. [KEEP READING]
2017 ASA prediction – Play OVER 8.5 Wins for Carolina Panthers
After making it to the Super Bowl two years ago, the Panthers won only 6 games last season. We think they bounce back with a solid 2017 season. We have Panthers as a pick’em or favored in 10 of their 16 games heading into the season. In their 6 games as an underdog, only New England & Atlanta would currently be favored by more than a FG vs Carolina. These numbers obviously change as the season progresses but prior to the start of the season, Carolina looks in decent shape to get to 9 wins or more. While they did lose 10 games last season, let’s keep in mind that six of those losses came by a field goal or less. [KEEP READING]
NFL – NFC EAST WIN BETS
2017 ASA prediction – Play UNDER 9 Wins for the NY Giants
Not only do the Giants play a tough schedule this year (ranked 8th in the NFL in strength of schedule) they play a whopping 4 games versus teams coming off a bye week. There opening month and a half schedule is as tough as any. They play 6 games before their bye on October 29th and 4 of those games are on the road. Their 2 home games during that stretch are both against playoff teams from last year (Detroit & Seattle). [KEEP READING]
2017 ASA NFL predictions – Philadelphia Eagles Over or Under 8 Wins?
The Eagles started with a perfect 3-0 record last season and looked like they were headed in the right direction with rookie QB Carson Wentz at the helm. After their bye on October 2nd, the Birds lost 4 of their next 5 but were leading with under 4:00 minutes remaining in 2 of those losses. They ended the season with a 7-9 record but were very close to having a much better record with 6 of their 9 losses coming by a TD or less. [KEEP READING]
2017 ASA NFL predictions – Washington Redskins Over or Under 7.5 Wins?
The offense was one of the best in the NFL last year but look for a drop off on that side of the ball. QB Kirk Cousins has proven he can be a top 10 type QB, however he lost some serious weapons from a year ago. His top two WR’s from last season are both gone. Pierre Garcon, 79 catches for 1,041 yards, and DeSean Jackson, 56 catches for 1,005 yards, have both moved on taking a huge chunk out of this offense. On top of that, offensive coordinator Sean McVay who was the orchestrator of that offense is now the head coach of the Rams. [KEEP READING]
2017 ASA NFL predictions – Dallas Cowboys Over or Under 9.5 Wins?
Things that make you go Hmmm? Dallas won 13 games last year with a rookie QB and they were the talk of the league for much of the season. So now the oddsmakers set their total wins at 9.5? As most will look at this and immediately take the OVER, where this number is set makes us lean UNDER. QB Dak Prescott was great last year but took many by surprise. [KEEP READING]
NFL – NFC WEST WIN BETS
2017 ASA NFL prediction – Arizona Cardinals Over or Under 8 wins?
We’re getting some nice value with the OVER for Arizona here. Last year they entered the season with a win total of 9.5 and finished with a 7-8-1 overall record. QB Carson Palmer struggled working behind a banged up offensive line that is now healthy. Despite their sub .500 record, the Cards outgained their opponents by an average of 61 YPG. [KEEP READING…]
2017 ASA NFL prediction – LA Rams Over or Under 4.5 wins?
The Rams were 4-12 last year and we’re projecting a similar record in 2017. The NFL is now a scoring league and the Rams are terrible at putting the ball in the endzone. Their 14 PPG average was the worst in the NFL. They only reached 20 points four times last season. That won’t get you many wins. Jared Goff looks like the full time starter at QB but when the Rams threw him to the wolves in their final 7 games last season, he stunk. LA was 0-7 in those games and averaged 12 PPG during that final stint. [KEEP READING…]
2017 ASA NFL prediction – San Francisco 49ers Over or Under 4.5 Wins?
Despite a new coach and new QB, we expect the Niners to be one of the NFL’s worst again this season. We have them as an underdog in 14 of their 16 games and only a slight favorite @ home vs the Rams and @ home vs the Jags. We project they will be at least a full TD underdog in 8+ games this year. San Fran was 2-14 last year and it wasn’t as if they were close to turning the corner with 9 of those losses coming by at least 10 points. [KEEP READING…]
ASA’s 2017 NFL Prediction – Seattle Seahawks Over or Under 10.5 Wins?
The Seahawks have the luxury of not having to travel on back to back weeks this entire season. Their only “back to back” road games come with a bye inserted in between. While we expect Arizona to be much better this year, the NFC West remains fairly weak with 4 most likely type wins vs the Rams & Niners. [KEEP READING]
Rested pitching and poor timing at the Plate leads to UNDERS!
By ASA, Inc
The All-Star break has come and gone and we are back into full MLB mode as the Pennant chases start to take shape. The players have rested, enjoyed some time off, spent time with families and have allowed themselves a mental and physical break from the sport. The question is, how does that time off affect players and is there a betting advantage to be had? We’ve uncovered an interesting trend and we’re ready to share the results with you. [KEEP READING…]
Defense wins Championships!
By ASA, Inc
There is so much to be said regarding this series, and you’ve already read most of it, so it’s going to be difficult to write a comprehensive analysis in just a paragraph but we’ll do our best. The Warriors are going to win this series (-$255) and our numbers support a shorter series than most of you might think.
Golden State has one of the best rosters ever assembled in the NBA and could be compared with the Showtime Lakers of the mid-80’s along with the Bird, McHale, Parrish, Johnson roster of the Celtics around that same time. This is coming from a guy that is a diehard NBA fan who has watched games religiously for the past 35 years. To keep this as short as possible we’ll focus on the keys to the series. [KEEP READING…]
Kenny Schmitt’s Kentucky Derby Doings – Friday Update!
Well all the works are complete as of this AM. We had several Kentucky Derby contenders work this AM and also gallop this AM also. Once again this morning, Hence looked very strong as I alerted you all to his final work along with his splits. It has been noted by some that the track was harrowed after the early AM session, and therefore the times were much quicker per the experts. I can see the track being somewhat faster, but not 3/4 seconds. But that’s what makes this the greatest sport as we all get to pick which horse we want back in each race [KEEP READING…]
Don’t make this NBA Futures Bet!
We hope you had the opportunity to read our Playoff article before the post-season began and how efficiency ratings helped predict the eventual NBA Champions. In short, teams that win NBA Championships, historically must rank in the top 11 of the league in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency ratings in the regular season. Teams that have accomplished this feat have won the past eight Titles. [KEEP READING…]
NBA Champions need to be efficient
Efficiency rating and rankings have become the standard measurement of NBA teams and players and if you are not familiar with those numbers, and you’re a sports bettor, you might want to do a little research and get to know what they mean. Very simply put, Offensive Efficiency (OEFF = points scored per 100 possessions) and Defensive Efficiency (DEFF = points allowed per 100 possessions) are great ways to evaluate teams and players, and measure how good they truly are. The league average for OEFF/DEFF this season was 108.8. It’s no surprise the Golden State Warriors was the most efficient offense in the NBA at 115.6 points per 100 possessions while the San Antonio Spurs held the best defensive efficiency rating in the league of 103.6. [KEEP READING…]
ASA’s PICK TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS at 15/1
Getting a perennial contender like the Giants at 15 to 1 to win it all is great value in our opinion. San Fran has won at least 84 games every year but one since 2009. They’ve been in the playoffs in 4 of the last 6 seasons. We expect them to get there again in 2017 as they return nearly every key cog from last year’s 87-75 wildcard team. [KEEP READING]
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