ASA’s says the 2010 ACC CHAMPS will be…Boston College Eagles…+800
BC might just be one of the most underappreciated college football programs in the nation. All they do is win. And they do it pretty much every year. Their last losing season was back in 1998. Their overall record since 1998? Try 96-44 on for size. Not bad at all.
Their defense is always tough especially against the run. Last year they finished 15th nationally vs. the run and many of the key members of the Eagles stop unit return in 2010. There is also a good chance that the ACC Defensive Player of the Year in 2008, LB Mark Herzlich, will return after successfully fighting cancer last season.
On offense this team loves to run the ball. RB Montel Harris had nearly 1,500 yards on the ground and is one of the top return rushers in the NCAA. At QB, 25-year old former baseball player Mark Shinskie had his ups and downs but now with a full year under his belt we look for him to improve dramatically. With four starters back on the offensive line, including 3 senior starters, expect a big improvement on their 24 PPG performance a year ago.
After winning the ACC Atlantic Division for two consecutive seasons in 2007 and 2008, this team, who was supposed to be rebuilding, finished second last year. They are a team that runs the ball very well and stops the run on defense. We love that. They should get a solid jump on the schedule with not a single road game until October 9th. They miss out on both Georgia Tech and Miami (FL) and get most of their tough ACC games at home with the exception of Florida State. At +800, we think BC is a great value play to win the ACC Title this year.
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ASA says the 2010 BIG 12 CHAMPS will be…Oklahoma Sooners…+250
The Sooners are coming off a very disappointing 8-5 season by their standards. Injuries at key positions, including QB Sam Bradford, derailed their season early on and they could not recover. They finished 5-3 in the Big 12 but their yardage differential per game was tops in the Conference signaling they were much better than their record. This year we have no doubt they’ll bounce back with fire in their eyes to be one of the top teams in the nation.
Of the Sooners five total losses last year, four came by three points or less, including two by a single point. OU lost @ Miami (FL) by 1, to BYU by 1 after Bradford left with an injury in the first half, to Texas by 3 and @ Nebraska by 3. Their lone “stinker” in 2009 was an embarrassing effort @ Texas Tech. The out gained the Longhorns in their 3-point loss and dominated Nebraska (23 first downs to 7) but turned the ball over five times. Despite the key injuries last season this team was very close to being very good.
QB Landry Jones had his ups and downs in 2009. He was thrust into an unexpected key role in season opener when Sam Bradford was injured early. Jones threw for over 3,100 yards and had a decent TD – interception ratio at 26 to 14. With that experience he gained last season, Jones should be very good in 2010. He’ll have one of the top RB’s in the nation at his disposal (DeMarco Murray) along with one of the best WR’s in the Big 12 (Ryan Broyles). He will also operate behind a veteran offensive line. There is no reason for us to believe that this team won’t improve drastically on their 31 PPG from last year.
The Sooner defense will again be very good as they seem to always be. Last year they allowed only 14.5 PPG and held all but four teams under 17 points. They pitched three shutouts and held 6 of their 13 opponents to 10 points or less. Their Big 12 schedule is very manageable as they miss Nebraska and their road tilts aren’t super imposing (Mizzou, A&M, Baylor & Oklahoma State). The key will be their October 2nd game vs. Texas. The Horns have taken four of the last five in this series, but this year they are a bit inexperienced and OU get the win. They then go on to win the Big 12 Title.
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ASA says the 2010 PAC 10 CHAMPS will be…Oregon State…+500
Which Pac 10 team simply needed to win their final game in each of the last two seasons to make it to the Rose Bowl? Must be USC or maybe Oregon, right? Wrong. You have probably guessed by now we are talking about the underappreciated OSU Beavers. That’s right, the Beavs entered their “Civil War” battle vs. Oregon in 2008 and 2009 knowing a win would send them to Pasadena. Unfortunately, their dreams slipped away with losses in each. We feel this is the year they have a great chance to break through and win the Pac 10.
OSU has offensive personnel that ranks with any team in the league. They have the best RB and probably the best overall offensive player in the Pac 10 in Jacquizz Rodgers. He rushed for 1,440 yards last year AND caught 78 passes. He has already been named a pre-season first team All-American by a number of publications. His brother, James Rodgers is among the best WR’s in the country as he is coming off a 91 catch season. The offensive line returns nearly in tact with 4 of 5 starters back. QB will be the key. Sean Canfield is gone and Ryan Katz is ready to take over. Head coach Mike Riley really likes Katz and says he is both mentally and physically tough. He definitely won’t have to carry the load with all of the talent surrounding him.
The defense was middle of the pack in the conference in most key categories. However, they return 8 starters including what many consider to be the best defensive lineman in the Pac 10, Stephen Paea. They will have to improve on the this side of the ball and we think they will. The fact is, even with an average defense, this team went right down to the final game in each of the last two seasons with a shot at the Rose Bowl. With USC going through a coaching transition and Oregon players having some legal troubles that might be a distraction, Oregon State has a great chance to jump to the top of the Pac 10 heap. We’ll take them at +500.
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ASA says the 2010 SEC CHAMPS will be...Arkansas…+800
The Razors have the top QB in the conference and maybe the nation heading into 2010. Ryan Mallett is considered by most to be a top 10 pick in next year’s NFL draft. He had a huge year in 2009 with 3,624 yards, 30 TD’s and just 7 interceptions. The former Michigan Wolverine transfer has developed nicely under QB guru and head coach Bobby Petrino. Mallett is set to operate behind an offensive line that is filled with upperclassmen. Four starters return on the offensive front and it looks like three seniors and two juniors will be in the starting line up. This team was 1st in the SEC in scoring offense and 3rd in total offense and they return 10 starters. The firepower is definitely good enough on that side of the ball to win this league. The problem for this Arky team last year was their defense. They allowed just over 400 YPG and 25 PPG. However we look for those numbers to drastically improve as they have a bunch of experience back with 29 returning lettermen on that side of the ball.
The schedule sets up very nicely for Arkansas. It’s actually one of the easier slates in the SEC. They definitely pick up some “addition by subtraction” and by addition I guess this year. That’s because the mighty Florida Gators are not on the schedule and they are being replaced by Vanderbilt. Not a bad situation for the Hogs dropping a team that was 13-1 last year and filling that void with a team that finished 2-10. They also catch the other big boy of the SEC, Alabama, at home this year. Their road slate is manageable with trips to Georgia, Auburn, South Carolina and Mississippi State. UGA is always a tough place to play, however the Bulldogs look like they’ll be starting a freshman at QB this season and this game is on September 18th which is very early. Catching a new QB early in the year is the way to go. That will give Arky a big time advantage at the most important position on the field. Their main competition in the SEC West will obviously be Alabama and probably Auburn. It will be tough for Bama’ to repeat last year’s success and we’re not sold on the Tigers being the best team in the West. Thus, at +800, Arkansas becomes a nice “longer”shot to win this league.
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ASA says the 2010 BIG EAST CHAMPS will be…Cincinnati...+500
Cincinnati finished the 2009 regular season undefeated and #3 in the polls before losing to Florida in the Sugar Bowl. Yes, their head coach Brian Kelly departed for Notre Dame and their two best offensive weapons moved on to the NFL, but Cincy has the best conference record over the past two seasons (13-1) and are way undervalued at +500 entering the season. Especially with no other Big East squads distancing themselves as a clear favorite.
Their transition to a new head coach may not be as difficult as some are anticipating. Brian Kenny came from Central Michigan, and that’s exactly where they hired their new head coach from, Butch Jones. Jones brings a similar offense and won’t have to overhaul the whole team in order for first-season success. He’s followed Brian Kelly before and he’s already experienced in building off of Kelly’s previous success.
Tony Pike and Marty Gilyard are both gone, but Cincy should still have a scary-good offense in 2010. QB Zach Collaros stepped in when Pike was injured last season. Collaros threw for 1,434 yards while completing 75% of his passes with a 10 to 2 TD/INT ratio. He’ll have their leading rusher Isaiah Pead (806 yds, 9 td’s) and five of their top six receivers back (Binns, Woods, Guidugli, Robinson) along with former top recruit Vidal Hazelton (transfer from USC).
Cincinnati will have a good opportunity to prepare and work out the kinks in time Big East play. They have non-conference games against Fresno State, North Carolina State, and Oklahoma before conference play starts. Big East play starts with contests against Louisville, South Florida and Syracuse. They have two tough roadies among their final four (@West Virginia, @UConn), but we still like their chances to walk away with the Big East crown.
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ASA says the 2010 BIG TEN CHAMPS will be…Iowa... +300
On paper, they may not be the prettiest team in the Big Ten; but with 14 starters coming back and a very favorable schedule, the Iowa Hawkeyes have all the right ingredients to make a run at the Big Ten title in 2010.
Due to a variety of injuries to key players on the offensive side of the ball, the Hawkeyes were widely overlooked despite winning their first nine games. They were going strong and ranked in the top 10 when QB Ricky Stanzi went down with an injury mid-game against Northwestern. They lost that game and the next week @Ohio State by a combined 10 points with Stanzi sidelined. But they finished the season 10-2 and received an “at large” bid to the Orange Bowl, where they defeated ACC Champ Georgia Tech.
Stanzi is back for his senior campaign along with a slew of experienced running backs. They also return talented receivers McNutt and Johnson-Koulianos (1424 yards receiving with 10 touchdowns combined) to form a great offense opposite of their suffocating defense. Back are all four starting defensive linemen and a strong safety who were all honorees of the All-Big Ten squads last season. Most notably are DE Adrian Clayborn (70 tkl, 11.5 sacks) and SS Tyler Sash (85 tkl, 6 int). Their defense should be just as good, or better, than the unit that ranked 10th in the nation in defensive YPG (276.5) and 8th in PPG (15.4) last season.
They have a very favorable schedule, drawing the other three Big Ten powers – Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin – at home (where they are 49-10 since 2001). In terms of road games, their first test will be a non-conference game @Arizona on September 18th, and their “toughest” conference road game doesn’t show up on the slate until November 13th when they travel to Northwestern.
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